發(fā)布時間：2018-07-31 07:53

【摘要】：自改革開放以來,中國煙草歷經(jīng)由小變大、由弱變強、由散亂到集中、由雜牌到大牌等發(fā)展歷程。目前,受到國內(nèi)外環(huán)境變化、經(jīng)濟下行壓力的影響,中國煙草正處在銷量增長難度加大、結(jié)構(gòu)提升遭遇瓶頸、供需不平衡的、產(chǎn)業(yè)整體發(fā)展速度趨緩的形勢,為此,本文根據(jù)行業(yè)發(fā)展趨勢,根據(jù)“卷煙市場化取向改革”措施,以“需求預(yù)測”為落腳點,結(jié)合卷煙營銷工作特點,對云產(chǎn)卷煙未來幾年的需求進(jìn)行預(yù)測,為云南中煙公司進(jìn)行發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略規(guī)劃、目標(biāo)決策制定和卷煙任務(wù)分配等發(fā)展方面提供有作用的信息資料和參考意見。首先,本文闡述了預(yù)測理論知識概念、類別和作用,描述了國內(nèi)外預(yù)測方法的發(fā)展和使用情況,進(jìn)一步比較了不同預(yù)測方法模型的優(yōu)缺點,并著重分析了本文所采用的模型“組合預(yù)測模型”。其次,剖析了云產(chǎn)卷煙在國內(nèi)卷煙市場的表現(xiàn)、競爭程度、品牌狀態(tài)、一二類卷煙銷售的態(tài)勢等等；分析了行業(yè)發(fā)展形勢和市場化取向改革推進(jìn),總結(jié)得出卷煙需求預(yù)測工作實施勢在必行,將成為未來卷煙營銷工作的核心和重點。接下來,通過重要性、經(jīng)濟性等多維度分析找出影響云產(chǎn)卷煙預(yù)測的八個要素。結(jié)合客觀條件,收集采用新華社云南分社、國家煙草專賣局一號工程系統(tǒng)、中華人民共和國國家統(tǒng)計局以及其他參考資料中的數(shù)據(jù),運用SPSS軟件進(jìn)行了逐步回歸分析,將不符合檢驗的變量逐一剔除,得出與卷煙銷售關(guān)系最緊密、關(guān)聯(lián)度最高的三個要素,并使用“多元回歸模型”對卷煙銷售進(jìn)行預(yù)測。由于該模型對卷煙政策因素、重大技改等客觀影響反應(yīng)不靈敏,而這些因素對卷煙銷售極其重要,所以使得預(yù)測的結(jié)果帶有一定的局限性。為此,本文又采用了“二次指數(shù)平滑法”,增加考慮周期性波動、環(huán)境變化等客觀情況,再次對卷煙銷售進(jìn)行預(yù)測,并對兩種不同預(yù)測方法的結(jié)果進(jìn)行比較,發(fā)現(xiàn)“多元回歸模型”對歷史數(shù)據(jù)信息運用充分,但缺少對環(huán)境、政策等客觀因素的考慮；而“二次指數(shù)平滑法”能充分考慮客觀影響,但對數(shù)據(jù)信息使用又不如“多元回歸模型”,綜合兩種方法的運用,就能互相彌補,規(guī)避缺陷,所以本文最終選用“組合預(yù)測模型”對卷煙銷售進(jìn)行了預(yù)測,分析發(fā)現(xiàn)此方法的預(yù)測結(jié)果確實與未來銷售趨勢最貼近,預(yù)測精度也比較高,對今后的卷煙銷售、產(chǎn)品規(guī)劃等有很重要的參考價值。最后,本文通過分析未來國家政策方向、行業(yè)發(fā)展環(huán)境,云南卷煙發(fā)展前景,可能面臨的機遇和挑戰(zhàn),參照預(yù)測結(jié)果數(shù)據(jù),對卷煙營銷情況作出預(yù)判,在市場運作、卷煙價值提升、資源優(yōu)化、科技創(chuàng)新四個方面對云產(chǎn)卷煙發(fā)展提出建議和意見。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, Chinese tobacco has experienced from small to large, from weak to strong, from scattered to centralized, from miscellaneous to big brand. At present, affected by the changes in the domestic and foreign environment and the downward pressure on the economy, Chinese tobacco is in a situation where the growth of sales volume is becoming more difficult, the structural upgrading is facing bottlenecks, the supply and demand are not balanced, and the overall development rate of the industry is slowing down. For this reason, According to the development trend of the industry, according to the measures of "cigarette market-oriented reform", taking "demand forecasting" as the foothold, combining with the characteristics of cigarette marketing, this paper forecasts the demand of cloud cigarettes in the next few years. It provides useful information and reference for the development of Yunnan Zhongyan Company in terms of development strategy planning, target decision making and cigarette task allocation. First of all, this paper describes the concepts, categories and functions of prediction theory, describes the development and use of prediction methods at home and abroad, and further compares the advantages and disadvantages of different prediction methods. The combined prediction model used in this paper is analyzed emphatically. Secondly, it analyzes the performance, competition degree, brand status, sales situation of one or two types of cigarettes in the domestic cigarette market, and analyzes the development situation of the industry and the promotion of market-oriented reform. It is concluded that the implementation of cigarette demand prediction is imperative and will become the core and focus of cigarette marketing in the future. Then, through the analysis of importance, economy and other multi-dimensional analysis, we find out the eight factors that affect cloud cigarette prediction. In combination with objective conditions, the data collected from the Yunnan Branch of Xinhua News Agency, the No.1 Project system of the State Tobacco Monopoly Administration, the National Bureau of Statistics of the people's Republic of China and other reference materials were collected, and the stepwise regression analysis was carried out using SPSS software. The variables of nonconformity test were eliminated one by one, and the three most closely related factors with cigarette sales were obtained, and the multiple regression model was used to predict cigarette sales. Because the model is not sensitive to the objective effects such as cigarette policy factors, major technical changes and so on, and these factors are extremely important to cigarette sales, the predicted results are limited to a certain extent. For this reason, this paper adopts "quadratic exponential smoothing" to increase the objective situation such as periodic fluctuation and environmental change, and forecasts the cigarette sales again, and compares the results of two different forecasting methods. It is found that "multivariate regression model" fully applies historical data information, but lacks consideration of objective factors such as environment and policy, while "quadratic exponential smoothing" can fully consider the objective influence. However, the use of data information is not as good as "multiple regression model", and the application of the two methods can make up for each other and avoid the defects, so this paper finally chooses "combination forecasting model" to forecast cigarette sales. It is found that the prediction results of this method are indeed the closest to the future sales trend and the prediction accuracy is also relatively high. It has important reference value for cigarette sales and product planning in the future. Finally, by analyzing the future national policy direction, the industry development environment, the development prospect of Yunnan cigarette, the opportunities and challenges that may be faced, and referring to the forecast result data, this paper makes a pre-judgment on the cigarette marketing situation and operates in the market. Four aspects of cigarette value promotion, resource optimization and scientific and technological innovation are put forward for the development of cloud cigarettes.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：昆明理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F426.8;F273

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