本文選題：手機(jī)訂貨系統(tǒng) + 采納與擴(kuò)散��； 參考：《昆明理工大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：無線網(wǎng)絡(luò)和移動技術(shù)的快速發(fā)展給企業(yè)帶來了巨大的商機(jī)。根據(jù)2013年6月底的CNNIC數(shù)據(jù)顯示,我國網(wǎng)民規(guī)模達(dá)到5.91億,較2012年底增加2656萬人,在新增加的網(wǎng)民中,使用手機(jī)上網(wǎng)的比例高達(dá)70%,高于使用其他設(shè)備上網(wǎng)的網(wǎng)民比例。面對如此大好的移動電子商務(wù)前景,商家們紛紛把投資目光轉(zhuǎn)移到了移動電子商務(wù)上,他們堅(jiān)信移動電子商務(wù)將為企業(yè)帶來大量的客戶群體和可觀的盈利。煙草是云南支柱產(chǎn)業(yè)之一,煙草的信息化已歷經(jīng)了十幾年的發(fā)展,目前來說已比較成熟,尤其是新商盟平臺的建設(shè)為煙草行業(yè)營銷方式帶來了突破性的發(fā)展——從傳統(tǒng)的電話訂貨轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)榱司W(wǎng)上訂貨。而隨著移動通信網(wǎng)絡(luò)技術(shù)的發(fā)展,人們使用手機(jī)上網(wǎng)和購物的比重逐年增加,為了搶占移動電子商務(wù)市場,云南煙草行業(yè)重視和積極開展零售戶手機(jī)網(wǎng)上訂貨的建設(shè)。但在推廣過程中,往往存在著許多的因素影響零售戶對手機(jī)訂貨系統(tǒng)的采納行為,研究這些影響因素對零售戶采納行為的影響程度和方式,能夠?yàn)橥茝V卷煙手機(jī)網(wǎng)上訂貨系統(tǒng)提供科學(xué)性建議,以便讓該系統(tǒng)更好的投入使用。因此,探尋影響零售戶采納卷煙手機(jī)網(wǎng)上訂貨系統(tǒng)的因素及其擴(kuò)散機(jī)理對最終建設(shè)好手機(jī)網(wǎng)上訂貨服務(wù)有著較強(qiáng)的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。本文將借鑒前人關(guān)于移動電子商務(wù)采納或技術(shù)創(chuàng)新采納的研究成果,以云南煙草企業(yè)開展零售戶手機(jī)上網(wǎng)訂貨項(xiàng)目為研究重心,探討零售戶對手機(jī)網(wǎng)上訂貨系統(tǒng)的采納情況,以期找出影響零售戶采納手機(jī)訂貨系統(tǒng)的關(guān)鍵因素,并根據(jù)關(guān)鍵因素建立預(yù)測零售戶采納情況的采納模型,希望能為煙草企業(yè)更好地開展手機(jī)訂貨系統(tǒng)的推廣工作提供參考和意見。本文采用生存分析法對零售戶的采納情況進(jìn)行研究,共提出七個影響因素：年齡、經(jīng)營卷煙年份、地區(qū)類型、經(jīng)營規(guī)模、品牌推介能力、商圈和經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)達(dá)情況,并相應(yīng)的提出了七個假設(shè)。本文研究數(shù)據(jù)來自某市煙草營銷系統(tǒng),共提取數(shù)據(jù)3008條,其中手機(jī)網(wǎng)上訂貨數(shù)據(jù)為591條,刪失數(shù)據(jù)為260條。本文采用SPSS軟件對數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行描述性統(tǒng)計(jì)、Kaplan-Meier分析,并對符合PH假設(shè)檢驗(yàn)的因素進(jìn)行了Cox回歸分析以及建立Cox預(yù)測模型,對不符合PH假設(shè)檢驗(yàn)的因素進(jìn)行了分層Cox回歸分析。根據(jù)分析結(jié)果,本文提出的7個假設(shè)中成立了6個,并且預(yù)測模型的預(yù)測能力良好。本文根據(jù)得出的研究結(jié)果,為管理者提出科學(xué)性的推廣建議和系統(tǒng)建設(shè)建議。最后指出了本研究的不足和局限,并對未來研究趨勢進(jìn)行了展望。
[Abstract]:The rapid development of wireless network and mobile technology has brought huge business opportunities to enterprises. According to CNNIC data at the end of June 2013, the number of Internet users in China reached 591 million, an increase of 26.56 million people compared with the end of 2012. Among the new netizens, the proportion of Internet users using mobile phones was as high as 70, higher than the proportion of Internet users using other devices. In the face of such a great prospect of mobile e-commerce, merchants have turned their investment attention to mobile e-commerce. They firmly believe that mobile e-commerce will bring a large number of customer groups and considerable profits for enterprises. Tobacco is one of the pillar industries in Yunnan. The information technology of tobacco has gone through more than ten years of development. At present, it is quite mature. In particular, the construction of the platform has brought a breakthrough development for the marketing mode of tobacco industry-from the traditional telephone order to the online order. With the development of mobile communication network technology, the proportion of mobile phone online and shopping increases year by year. In order to occupy the mobile electronic commerce market, Yunnan tobacco industry attaches importance to and actively carries out the construction of mobile phone online order for retail households. However, in the process of promotion, there are many factors that affect the adoption of mobile phone ordering system, and the influence of these factors on the adoption behavior of retail households is studied. It can provide scientific advice for promoting the online ordering system of cigarette mobile phone, so that the system can be put into use better. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to explore the factors influencing retailers to adopt the online ordering system of cigarette mobile phones and its diffusion mechanism for the final construction of the online ordering service of mobile phones. This paper will draw lessons from the previous research results on the adoption of mobile electronic commerce or technological innovation, take Yunnan tobacco enterprises to carry out mobile phone online ordering project as the focus of research, and discuss the adoption of mobile phone online ordering system. In order to find out the key factors that affect the adoption of mobile phone ordering system, and according to the key factors to establish the adoption model to predict the adoption of retail households. Hope to provide reference and advice for tobacco enterprises to better carry out the promotion of mobile phone ordering system. This paper studies the adoption of retail households by means of survival analysis, and puts forward seven influencing factors: age, year of cigarette management, regional type, business scale, brand promotion ability, business district and economic development. Seven hypotheses are put forward accordingly. The research data of this paper come from the tobacco marketing system of a certain city. 3008 items of data are extracted, including 591 items of online ordering data and 260 items of censored data. In this paper, the descriptive statistical Kaplan-Meier analysis of the data is carried out by using SPSS software. The Cox regression analysis and the Cox prediction model of the factors that conform to the PH hypothesis test are carried out, and the stratified Cox regression analysis of the factors which do not conform to the PH hypothesis test is carried out. According to the analysis results, six of the seven hypotheses proposed in this paper are established, and the prediction model has good prediction ability. According to the research results, this paper puts forward scientific suggestions for managers and system construction suggestions. Finally, the limitations and shortcomings of this study are pointed out, and the trend of future research is prospected.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：昆明理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：F426.8;F274

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本文編號：2114345