本文選題：GIS　切入點(diǎn)：中長(zhǎng)期負(fù)荷預(yù)測(cè)　出處：《大連理工大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：電力系統(tǒng)的中長(zhǎng)期負(fù)荷預(yù)測(cè)是電網(wǎng)規(guī)劃的重要基礎(chǔ),為電網(wǎng)的改造和擴(kuò)建、電廠的建設(shè)等提供基礎(chǔ)數(shù)據(jù)。一個(gè)地區(qū)的負(fù)荷預(yù)測(cè)工作,不但要對(duì)該地區(qū)未來的負(fù)荷總量進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè),還要預(yù)測(cè)負(fù)荷的空間分布狀況,以方便制定電源規(guī)劃、線路規(guī)劃、資源配置規(guī)劃等工作。本文中長(zhǎng)期負(fù)荷預(yù)測(cè)研究包括用于中長(zhǎng)期總量負(fù)荷預(yù)測(cè)的綜合次優(yōu)擬合模型和基于用地信息的負(fù)荷空間分布預(yù)測(cè)方法。綜合次優(yōu)擬合模型以最優(yōu)可信度為求解目標(biāo),近似認(rèn)為不同方法之間相互獨(dú)立,無(wú)需迭代直接求得近似最優(yōu)解,在保證較高精度的前提下,提高了計(jì)算速度。基于用地信息的負(fù)荷空間分布預(yù)測(cè)是在對(duì)用地信息分類統(tǒng)計(jì)的基礎(chǔ)上,采用自上而下模式,將變電站預(yù)測(cè)的目標(biāo)年負(fù)荷總量按比例分?jǐn)偨o各類性質(zhì)的負(fù)荷,再求出其土地平均負(fù)荷密度,在目前相關(guān)的小區(qū)數(shù)據(jù)采集通道不十分順暢的條件下,實(shí)現(xiàn)了負(fù)荷空間分布預(yù)測(cè)。實(shí)踐表明,該方法具有較好的可操作性和實(shí)用性。在理論方法研究的基礎(chǔ)上,本文結(jié)合國(guó)網(wǎng)大連供電公司發(fā)展規(guī)劃平臺(tái)建設(shè)目標(biāo),設(shè)計(jì)并研發(fā)了基于GIS的中長(zhǎng)期負(fù)荷預(yù)測(cè)系統(tǒng),實(shí)現(xiàn)了“一個(gè)開放”和“兩個(gè)一體化“的建設(shè)目標(biāo)。一個(gè)開放即系統(tǒng)的中長(zhǎng)期負(fù)荷總量預(yù)測(cè)方法庫(kù)具有開放性；兩個(gè)一體化指時(shí)間緯度、空間緯度的負(fù)荷一體化預(yù)測(cè)功能以及數(shù)據(jù)從采集、計(jì)算到多樣化展示的一體化過程。同時(shí),系統(tǒng)提供了與電網(wǎng)的MIS、EMS及營(yíng)銷系統(tǒng)等信息系統(tǒng)豐富的數(shù)據(jù)接口,并在該系統(tǒng)上完成了網(wǎng)架信息和負(fù)荷信息的管理系統(tǒng)。系統(tǒng)將部分計(jì)算結(jié)果存儲(chǔ)在數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)中,將計(jì)算過程與計(jì)算結(jié)果分離,計(jì)算結(jié)果可重復(fù)利用。系統(tǒng)的數(shù)據(jù)自動(dòng)采集模塊以后臺(tái)服務(wù)形式自動(dòng)采集負(fù)荷、電流等數(shù)據(jù)并加工整理,大大減少了工作人員搜集數(shù)據(jù)的工作量。目前,基于GIS的中長(zhǎng)期負(fù)荷預(yù)測(cè)系統(tǒng)已經(jīng)在國(guó)網(wǎng)大連供電公司用于電網(wǎng)規(guī)劃工作,實(shí)踐證明,該系統(tǒng)大大提高了工作人員的工作效率和負(fù)荷預(yù)測(cè)精度。
[Abstract]:The medium and long term load forecasting of power system is the important foundation of power network planning, which provides basic data for the reconstruction and expansion of power network and the construction of power plant. The load forecasting work in a region should not only forecast the total load in the future. It is also necessary to predict the spatial distribution of loads in order to facilitate the formulation of power supply planning and line planning. The research on medium and long term load forecasting in this paper includes comprehensive suboptimal fitting model for medium and long term total load forecasting and load spatial distribution forecasting method based on land use information. Comprehensive suboptimal fitting model. With optimal credibility as the goal, It is considered that the different methods are independent of each other, and the approximate optimal solution is obtained directly without iteration. The load spatial distribution forecasting based on land use information is based on the classification and statistics of land use information, and adopts the top-down model to apportion the total target annual load of substation forecast to various kinds of loads in proportion. The average land load density is calculated, and the spatial load distribution prediction is realized under the condition that the data acquisition channel is not very smooth. The practice shows that, This method has good maneuverability and practicability. Based on the research of theory and method, this paper designs and develops a medium and long term load forecasting system based on GIS. The construction goals of "one open" and "two integration" have been achieved. The integrated load forecasting function of spatial latitude and the integration process of data collection, calculation and diversified display. At the same time, the system provides rich data interface with information systems such as MISEMS and marketing systems of power grid. The management system of grid information and load information is completed on the system. The system stores part of the calculation results in the database and separates the calculation process from the calculation results. The calculation results can be reused. The automatic data acquisition module of the system automatically collects load, current and other data in the form of backstage service, which greatly reduces the workload of the staff in collecting data. At present, The medium- and long-term load forecasting system based on GIS has been used in power network planning in Dalian Power supply Company of China Power Network. The practice shows that the system has greatly improved the working efficiency and load forecasting accuracy of the staff.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：大連理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：TM715

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本文編號(hào)：1604876