本文選題：通信行業(yè) + 上市公司��； 參考：《北京郵電大學》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：電信業(yè)作為國家的基礎(chǔ)性、先導性產(chǎn)業(yè),具有較大的社會倍增效益,其發(fā)展速度和效益對整個經(jīng)濟發(fā)展具有輻射作用,但同時通信行業(yè)也是一個高投入高風險的行業(yè),如果電信企業(yè)一旦發(fā)生財務(wù)危機,會給投資者以及相關(guān)利益者帶來巨大的經(jīng)濟損失,更重要的是作為國家支柱產(chǎn)業(yè),會嚴重影響國民經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展,甚至引發(fā)金融危機。建立財務(wù)預(yù)警系統(tǒng)對企業(yè)的經(jīng)營狀況進行跟蹤和監(jiān)控,及早的發(fā)現(xiàn)財務(wù)惡化的信號,并采取相應(yīng)措施來避免或減少損失,顯得尤其重要。 本文以中國通信行業(yè)上市公司為研究對象,以上市公司是否因財務(wù)狀況異常而被特殊處理作為界定財務(wù)危機的依據(jù),在通信行業(yè)上市公司中選取了3家ST公司和16家非ST公司作為估計樣本,確定研究年度為上市公司被特殊處理前3年。在“四能力”財務(wù)指標體系的基礎(chǔ)上,借鑒了國內(nèi)外學者的研究成果,從公司的營運能力、盈利能力、償債能力、發(fā)展能力和現(xiàn)金流量能力五個方面初步確定了21個指標,然后通過KMD檢驗、相關(guān)分析進行篩選,最終確定了6個指標采用Logistic回歸建立財務(wù)危機預(yù)警的模型,最后對研究的結(jié)果進行分析表明,該模型的正確率達到79%。 通過本研究構(gòu)建了適合通信行業(yè)上市公司的財務(wù)危機預(yù)警模型,比較準確的預(yù)測了企業(yè)的財務(wù)危機。希望能夠通過該模型,幫助企業(yè)及時發(fā)現(xiàn)潛在的財務(wù)風險,以便于企業(yè)及時作出判斷并采取措施預(yù)防危機的發(fā)生,從而保護投資者和債權(quán)人的利益、便于政府管理部門監(jiān)控電信企業(yè)經(jīng)營質(zhì)量,保證電信企業(yè)的健康穩(wěn)定發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:As the foundation and leading industry of our country, telecom industry has great social multiplier benefit. Its development speed and benefit have radiation effect to the whole economic development, but at the same time, the telecommunication industry is also a high investment and high risk industry.Once the financial crisis occurs, telecom enterprises will bring huge economic losses to investors and related stakeholders, more importantly, as a pillar industry of the state, will seriously affect the development of the national economy, and even lead to financial crisis.It is very important to establish financial early warning system to track and monitor the business situation, to detect the signal of financial deterioration as early as possible, and to take corresponding measures to avoid or reduce losses.In this paper, the listed companies in the communications industry in China are taken as the research object, and whether the listed companies are specially dealt with because of the abnormal financial situation as the basis for defining the financial crisis,Three St companies and 16 non-St companies are selected as the estimated samples in the communications industry, and it is determined that the research year is three years before the special treatment of listed companies.On the basis of the financial index system of "four abilities" and referring to the research results of domestic and foreign scholars, 21 indexes were preliminarily determined from five aspects of the company's operating ability, profitability, solvency, development capacity and cash flow capacity.Then through KMD test and correlation analysis, six indexes are determined to establish the financial crisis warning model by Logistic regression. Finally, the results of the research show that the correct rate of the model is 79%.Through this study, a financial crisis warning model suitable for the listed companies in the communication industry is constructed, and the financial crisis of the enterprises is predicted more accurately.It is hoped that the model can help enterprises discover potential financial risks in a timely manner so as to facilitate enterprises to make timely judgments and take measures to prevent the occurrence of crises, thereby protecting the interests of investors and creditors.To facilitate government management to monitor the quality of telecommunications enterprises, to ensure the healthy and stable development of telecommunications enterprises.
【學位授予單位】：北京郵電大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F626.116;F224

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