本文選題：通信行業(yè) + 上市公司　； 參考：《北京郵電大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：電信業(yè)作為國(guó)家的基礎(chǔ)性、先導(dǎo)性產(chǎn)業(yè),具有較大的社會(huì)倍增效益,其發(fā)展速度和效益對(duì)整個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展具有輻射作用,但同時(shí)通信行業(yè)也是一個(gè)高投入高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的行業(yè),如果電信企業(yè)一旦發(fā)生財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī),會(huì)給投資者以及相關(guān)利益者帶來(lái)巨大的經(jīng)濟(jì)損失,更重要的是作為國(guó)家支柱產(chǎn)業(yè),會(huì)嚴(yán)重影響國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展,甚至引發(fā)金融危機(jī)。建立財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警系統(tǒng)對(duì)企業(yè)的經(jīng)營(yíng)狀況進(jìn)行跟蹤和監(jiān)控,及早的發(fā)現(xiàn)財(cái)務(wù)惡化的信號(hào),并采取相應(yīng)措施來(lái)避免或減少損失,顯得尤其重要。 本文以中國(guó)通信行業(yè)上市公司為研究對(duì)象,以上市公司是否因財(cái)務(wù)狀況異常而被特殊處理作為界定財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)的依據(jù),在通信行業(yè)上市公司中選取了3家ST公司和16家非ST公司作為估計(jì)樣本,確定研究年度為上市公司被特殊處理前3年。在“四能力”財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)體系的基礎(chǔ)上,借鑒了國(guó)內(nèi)外學(xué)者的研究成果,從公司的營(yíng)運(yùn)能力、盈利能力、償債能力、發(fā)展能力和現(xiàn)金流量能力五個(gè)方面初步確定了21個(gè)指標(biāo),然后通過(guò)KMD檢驗(yàn)、相關(guān)分析進(jìn)行篩選,最終確定了6個(gè)指標(biāo)采用Logistic回歸建立財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)預(yù)警的模型,最后對(duì)研究的結(jié)果進(jìn)行分析表明,該模型的正確率達(dá)到79%。 通過(guò)本研究構(gòu)建了適合通信行業(yè)上市公司的財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)預(yù)警模型,比較準(zhǔn)確的預(yù)測(cè)了企業(yè)的財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)。希望能夠通過(guò)該模型,幫助企業(yè)及時(shí)發(fā)現(xiàn)潛在的財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn),以便于企業(yè)及時(shí)作出判斷并采取措施預(yù)防危機(jī)的發(fā)生,從而保護(hù)投資者和債權(quán)人的利益、便于政府管理部門(mén)監(jiān)控電信企業(yè)經(jīng)營(yíng)質(zhì)量,保證電信企業(yè)的健康穩(wěn)定發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:As the foundation and leading industry of our country, telecom industry has great social multiplier benefit. Its development speed and benefit have radiation effect to the whole economic development, but at the same time, the telecommunication industry is also a high investment and high risk industry.Once the financial crisis occurs, telecom enterprises will bring huge economic losses to investors and related stakeholders, more importantly, as a pillar industry of the state, will seriously affect the development of the national economy, and even lead to financial crisis.It is very important to establish financial early warning system to track and monitor the business situation, to detect the signal of financial deterioration as early as possible, and to take corresponding measures to avoid or reduce losses.In this paper, the listed companies in the communications industry in China are taken as the research object, and whether the listed companies are specially dealt with because of the abnormal financial situation as the basis for defining the financial crisis,Three St companies and 16 non-St companies are selected as the estimated samples in the communications industry, and it is determined that the research year is three years before the special treatment of listed companies.On the basis of the financial index system of "four abilities" and referring to the research results of domestic and foreign scholars, 21 indexes were preliminarily determined from five aspects of the company's operating ability, profitability, solvency, development capacity and cash flow capacity.Then through KMD test and correlation analysis, six indexes are determined to establish the financial crisis warning model by Logistic regression. Finally, the results of the research show that the correct rate of the model is 79%.Through this study, a financial crisis warning model suitable for the listed companies in the communication industry is constructed, and the financial crisis of the enterprises is predicted more accurately.It is hoped that the model can help enterprises discover potential financial risks in a timely manner so as to facilitate enterprises to make timely judgments and take measures to prevent the occurrence of crises, thereby protecting the interests of investors and creditors.To facilitate government management to monitor the quality of telecommunications enterprises, to ensure the healthy and stable development of telecommunications enterprises.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京郵電大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F626.116;F224

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