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模塊企業(yè)進(jìn)入、退出與升級(jí)的投資決策研究

發(fā)布時(shí)間:2018-04-02 12:23

  本文選題:模塊化 切入點(diǎn):信息產(chǎn)業(yè) 出處:《電子科技大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文


【摘要】:信息產(chǎn)業(yè)的快速發(fā)展對于推動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展與社會(huì)進(jìn)步的具有支撐作用。同時(shí),信息產(chǎn)業(yè)又是一個(gè)極具模塊化特征的產(chǎn)業(yè),產(chǎn)業(yè)中的各種現(xiàn)象都是企業(yè)微觀行為的結(jié)果。在信息產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展歷程中,企業(yè)如何做好項(xiàng)目的投資決策對企業(yè)的發(fā)展顯得尤為重要。由于信息產(chǎn)業(yè)本身的技術(shù)復(fù)雜性高、投資金額巨大、結(jié)果存在高度不確定等特征,使得傳統(tǒng)的創(chuàng)新投資模式不能有效地解決投資中存在的問題。 基于信息產(chǎn)業(yè)在國民經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展中的重要性和傳統(tǒng)創(chuàng)新投資模式存在的不足,本文結(jié)合了模塊化創(chuàng)新的方法對現(xiàn)有文獻(xiàn)關(guān)于信息產(chǎn)業(yè)的項(xiàng)目投資中較少涉及的問題進(jìn)行了研究,并綜合考慮了模塊復(fù)雜性、技術(shù)潛力、消費(fèi)者偏好等諸多因素,采用實(shí)物期權(quán)方法分別建立了完全壟斷企業(yè)首次進(jìn)行模塊投資、面臨市場競爭的新創(chuàng)企業(yè)模塊化進(jìn)入投資以及處于競爭環(huán)境下的在位企業(yè)模塊創(chuàng)新投資的決策模型。 研究結(jié)論表明,(1)模塊化投資存在一個(gè)固定的最小最優(yōu)試驗(yàn)次數(shù),其對應(yīng)的投資臨界值是模塊投資真正意義上的“投資臨界值”;(2)當(dāng)市場需求水平低于“投資臨界值”時(shí),真正能夠影響最小最優(yōu)試驗(yàn)次數(shù)的是市場需求水平的期望增長率和波動(dòng)率,其他因素沒有影響;(3)新創(chuàng)企業(yè)進(jìn)入市場時(shí)將極力避免與在位企業(yè)展開同質(zhì)化競爭,將依情況采取高端進(jìn)入或低端進(jìn)入策略;(4)在低端進(jìn)入策略中,隨著模塊技術(shù)潛力的增大,最優(yōu)試驗(yàn)次數(shù)先增后降,而在高端進(jìn)入策略中,最優(yōu)試驗(yàn)次數(shù)逐漸增大。(5)市場需求水平和競爭對手系統(tǒng)性能的差距將會(huì)影響在位企業(yè)最優(yōu)的模塊投資策略,在某一市場需求水平下,企業(yè)需要根據(jù)其系統(tǒng)的初始性能水平選擇退出、維持或者升級(jí);(6)處于低性能水平的企業(yè)可供選擇的最優(yōu)策略包括退出或升級(jí),處于中間性能的企業(yè)可供選擇的最優(yōu)策略包括退出、中端等待或升級(jí),處于性能領(lǐng)先位置的企業(yè)可供選擇的最優(yōu)策略包括退出、高端等待或升級(jí)。 本文的研究有助于我們理解模塊化信息產(chǎn)業(yè)的各種現(xiàn)象和演化規(guī)律。
[Abstract]:The rapid development of information industry plays a supporting role in promoting economic development and social progress.At the same time, the information industry is also a modularized industry, and all kinds of phenomena in the industry are the result of the microcosmic behavior of enterprises.In the course of the development of information industry, it is very important for enterprises to make project investment decisions.Because of the high technical complexity, huge investment amount and highly uncertain result of information industry, the traditional innovative investment mode can not effectively solve the problems existing in investment.Based on the importance of information industry in the development of national economy and the shortcomings of the traditional innovation investment mode, this paper studies the problems rarely involved in the project investment of the information industry in the existing literature, which is based on the modular innovation method.Considering many factors such as module complexity, technology potential, consumer preference and so on, the real option method is used to establish the complete monopoly enterprise to invest in the module for the first time.The decision model of modularized entry investment and innovation investment of existing enterprises in the market competition.The results show that there is a fixed minimum optimal test number for modular investment, and the corresponding investment critical value is the "investment critical value" in the real sense of modular investment. When the market demand level is lower than the "investment critical value",The expected growth rate and volatility of the market demand level can really affect the minimum and optimal trial times, but other factors have no effect on the market. When the startups enter the market, they will try their best to avoid the homogenous competition with the incumbent enterprises.The difference between the market demand level and the system performance of the competitors will affect the optimal module investment strategy of the incumbent enterprise, and at a certain market demand level, the optimal module investment strategy will be affected by the difference between the market demand level and the system performance of the competitors.Enterprises need to choose exit according to the initial performance level of their system.The optimal strategies for enterprises with intermediate performance include exit, mid-end wait or upgrade, and those in leading position include exit, high-end wait or upgrade.The research in this paper is helpful for us to understand the various phenomena and evolution laws of modular information industry.
【學(xué)位授予單位】:電子科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】:碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】:2012
【分類號(hào)】:F49;F832.48

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

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