【摘要】：我國自建國以來，特別是經(jīng)歷了改革開放以來，，經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速發(fā)展，對能源的需求也迅猛增長，面臨著越來越嚴(yán)峻的能源供需矛盾的問題。而中國能源資源的國情是“貧油、少氣、富煤”，能源結(jié)構(gòu)的特點(diǎn)決定了煤炭是主要能源。長期以來煤炭在中國一次能源生產(chǎn)和消費(fèi)構(gòu)成中均占2/3以上,在國民經(jīng)濟(jì)中具有重要的戰(zhàn)略地位。 云南省“富煤、少氣、貧油”的能源特點(diǎn)更為突出。盡管云南省水電資源為全國排第二位，但云南水電以徑流為主,火電削峰填谷的功能無可替代。煤炭供需平衡直接關(guān)系云南省經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行的平穩(wěn)。云南省煤炭市場的供需不平衡、產(chǎn)需不銜接等矛盾，嚴(yán)重妨礙了煤炭產(chǎn)業(yè)的健康發(fā)展，給云南省經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行造成嚴(yán)重的不良影響,煤電油運(yùn)一度成為經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的“瓶頸”。 煤炭作為運(yùn)輸?shù)拇笞谖镔Y，主要運(yùn)輸途徑有鐵路、公路、水路，最廉價的方式是水路運(yùn)輸,其次是鐵路運(yùn)輸。云南省在全國鐵路網(wǎng)中處于“末端”,水運(yùn)更不具備臨海的客觀條件。國家將云南規(guī)劃為“自給區(qū)”。因此，研究云南省煤炭的供需平衡至關(guān)重要。即研究區(qū)域內(nèi)的煤炭市關(guān)系，準(zhǔn)確預(yù)測出地區(qū)煤炭的需求量和供給量，并針對此作出科學(xué)合理的分析，才能有效合理地制定能源發(fā)展規(guī)劃及對策，才能更好地保證地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展。 本文就是以云南省煤炭市場供需為研究的主要對象，分析云南省煤炭目前需求量和供給量的基礎(chǔ)上，通過定性和定量相結(jié)合的方式建立模型，對云南省2020年煤炭的需求和供給進(jìn)行預(yù)測，并進(jìn)行供需關(guān)系的分析，提出相應(yīng)的建議。對云南省煤炭供需的科學(xué)預(yù)測，能為云南省制定中長期煤炭及能源發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略提供基本依據(jù)，對于云南省煤炭資源的可持續(xù)發(fā)展、保證能源安全、社會經(jīng)濟(jì)建設(shè)目標(biāo)的實現(xiàn)都具有重要的現(xiàn)實意義。 本文首先對煤炭、能源等概念進(jìn)行分類界定。分析云南省煤炭供給和需求的現(xiàn)狀和其影響因素，分析了云南省能源供給結(jié)構(gòu)。包括煤炭資源情況、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和規(guī)模大小、大型的煤炭企業(yè)投產(chǎn)情況，同時分析了云南省煤炭需求市場環(huán)境、需求結(jié)構(gòu)和發(fā)展趨勢。分析云南省供需失衡的因素和原因，為后續(xù)煤炭的預(yù)測做分析鋪墊。 然后概述各種能源預(yù)測方法的基本原理，通過對云南省2000-2012年能源年鑒數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行研究和分析，通過Eviews分析軟件對數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行可靠性檢驗，并應(yīng)用VAR模型對云南省2020年的煤炭需求和供給進(jìn)行預(yù)測，同時通過ARMA模型進(jìn)行預(yù)測結(jié)果擬合度分析，提高預(yù)測的準(zhǔn)確度。 最后，通過模型預(yù)測，得出云南省煤炭的需求量是為17897.48萬噸原煤，煤炭供給量為16323.45萬噸原煤，供給需求之間的缺口1574.03萬噸原煤，需求略大于供給。在此研究結(jié)論基礎(chǔ)上，提出具有針對性的對策建議。
[Abstract]:Since the founding of the people's Republic of China, especially since the reform and opening up, the rapid development of economy, the rapid growth of energy demand, is facing more and more serious contradiction between energy supply and demand. The national conditions of China's energy resources are "poor oil, less gas and rich coal". The characteristics of energy structure determine that coal is the main energy source. For a long time, coal plays an important strategic role in China's primary energy production and consumption, which accounts for more than 2% of China's primary energy production and consumption. Yunnan Province "rich in coal, less gas, poor oil" energy characteristics are more prominent. Although Yunnan Province is the second largest hydropower resource in China, it is mainly runoff, and the function of cutting peak and filling valley by thermal power is irreplaceable. The balance of coal supply and demand is directly related to the stability of economic operation in Yunnan Province. The imbalance of supply and demand in Yunnan coal market and the disconnection between production and demand seriously hinder the healthy development of coal industry and cause serious adverse effects on the economic operation of Yunnan Province. The transportation of coal and electricity and oil has once become the "bottleneck" of economic development. Coal as a major transport material, the main means of transport are railways, roads, waterways, the cheapest way is water transport, followed by rail transport. Yunnan Province is at the end of the national railway network, and the water transportation does not have the objective condition of facing the sea. The state plans Yunnan as a "self-contained area." Therefore, it is very important to study the balance of coal supply and demand in Yunnan Province. That is, to study the relationship between coal and city in the region, to accurately predict the demand and supply of coal in the region, and to make a scientific and reasonable analysis on this, in order to formulate the energy development plan and countermeasures effectively and reasonably. In order to better ensure the sustainable development of the regional economy. Taking the supply and demand of Yunnan coal market as the main research object, this paper analyzes the current demand and supply quantity of Yunnan coal, and establishes the model through the combination of qualitative and quantitative methods. This paper forecasts the demand and supply of coal in Yunnan Province in 2020, analyzes the relationship between supply and demand, and puts forward some suggestions. The scientific prediction of coal supply and demand in Yunnan Province can provide the basic basis for the formulation of medium-and long-term coal and energy development strategy in Yunnan Province, and guarantee the energy security for the sustainable development of coal resources in Yunnan Province. The realization of the goal of socio-economic construction is of great practical significance. In this paper, the concept of coal, energy and so on are classified and defined. The present situation of coal supply and demand in Yunnan Province and its influencing factors are analyzed, and the energy supply structure of Yunnan Province is analyzed. Including the situation of coal resources, industrial structure and size, the production of large-scale coal enterprises, the market environment of coal demand in Yunnan Province, demand structure and development trend are analyzed at the same time. This paper analyzes the factors and reasons of the imbalance between supply and demand in Yunnan Province, and lays the groundwork for the future prediction of coal. Then the basic principles of various energy forecasting methods are summarized. Through the research and analysis of the energy yearbook data from 2000 to 2012 in Yunnan Province, the reliability of the data is tested by Eviews analysis software. The VAR model is applied to forecast the demand and supply of coal in Yunnan Province in 2020. At the same time, the ARMA model is used to analyze the fitting degree of the prediction results to improve the accuracy of the prediction. Finally, through the model forecast, it is concluded that the demand of Yunnan coal is 178.9748 million tons of raw coal, the coal supply is 163.2345 million tons of raw coal, the gap between supply and demand is 15.7403 million tons of raw coal, the demand is slightly larger than the supply. On the basis of this research conclusion, some countermeasures and suggestions are put forward.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：云南財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F426.21

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