江蘇省制造業(yè)產(chǎn)能過剩的測(cè)度與成因分析
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-12-14 04:28
【摘要】：產(chǎn)能過剩是指經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)中市場(chǎng)上產(chǎn)品有效需求能力遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)低于實(shí)際生產(chǎn)能力的狀態(tài),或者實(shí)際產(chǎn)能產(chǎn)出低于最佳產(chǎn)能,資源得不到充分利用而出現(xiàn)閑置,并經(jīng)常伴有庫(kù)存商品積壓、產(chǎn)品價(jià)格下跌、企業(yè)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)加劇和行業(yè)利潤(rùn)下滑等諸多不利的現(xiàn)象。這種經(jīng)濟(jì)現(xiàn)象在整個(gè)市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)中普遍存在,也是這些年來我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展過程中所面臨的一項(xiàng)重要問題。短期供需失衡在市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)中常常出現(xiàn),是正�，F(xiàn)象；但是長(zhǎng)期產(chǎn)能過剩,往往會(huì)紊亂市場(chǎng)秩序,加劇經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn),對(duì)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)健康發(fā)展和經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)正常運(yùn)行帶來諸多不利的影響。近年來,無論是社會(huì)還是政府都高度關(guān)注產(chǎn)能過剩的問題,政府工作會(huì)議將化解產(chǎn)能過剩的矛盾列為產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化調(diào)整的重要工作。江蘇省制造業(yè)在全國(guó)名列前茅,因此,測(cè)度江蘇制造業(yè)各行業(yè)產(chǎn)能利用率以及探究其產(chǎn)能過剩的影響因素就顯得尤為必要。本文首先通過圖形對(duì)產(chǎn)能過剩的內(nèi)涵進(jìn)行了行業(yè)層面的界定并闡述了產(chǎn)能過剩的判定標(biāo)準(zhǔn),然后運(yùn)用經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)相關(guān)理論從微觀廠商視角對(duì)產(chǎn)能過剩進(jìn)行了分析。接著從理論上闡述了轉(zhuǎn)型經(jīng)濟(jì)背景下產(chǎn)能過剩的成因,由于財(cái)政分權(quán)和官員晉升體制等原因,使得地方政府有強(qiáng)烈的動(dòng)機(jī)去通過低價(jià)土地、銀行預(yù)算軟約束以及財(cái)政補(bǔ)貼等手段甚至以犧牲環(huán)境為代價(jià)去“照顧”企業(yè)投資行為。同時(shí)通過建立簡(jiǎn)單的博弈模型對(duì)產(chǎn)能過剩的形成機(jī)理加以闡釋。本文選取了邊界生產(chǎn)函數(shù)對(duì)江蘇制造業(yè)28個(gè)行業(yè)在2003-2012年的產(chǎn)能利用率進(jìn)行了測(cè)度。根據(jù)測(cè)定結(jié)果,產(chǎn)能過剩主要集中于以下八大行業(yè)中：其中，，重工業(yè)領(lǐng)域占六個(gè),分別是化學(xué)原料及化學(xué)制品制造業(yè)、醫(yī)藥制造業(yè)、橡膠制品業(yè)、塑料制品業(yè)、非金屬礦物制品業(yè)、黑色金屬冶煉及延壓加工業(yè)；輕工業(yè)領(lǐng)域占兩個(gè),分別是造紙及紙制品業(yè)和化學(xué)纖維制造業(yè)。由此進(jìn)一步分析江蘇制造業(yè)各行業(yè)產(chǎn)能過剩的特征和趨勢(shì),結(jié)果顯示大部分行業(yè)產(chǎn)能利用率的變動(dòng)符合經(jīng)濟(jì)周期波動(dòng)的變化趨勢(shì)。再運(yùn)用面板數(shù)據(jù)模型中的不變系數(shù)模型估計(jì)得出江蘇地方政府干預(yù)對(duì)產(chǎn)能過剩具有正向影響效應(yīng),在地方政府干預(yù)對(duì)產(chǎn)能過剩影響中企業(yè)過度投資充當(dāng)了中介作用。在此基礎(chǔ)上,提出相應(yīng)的政策建議,比如：減少地方政府干預(yù),健全要素市場(chǎng)體系,加強(qiáng)環(huán)境保護(hù)責(zé)任等等,具有一定的理論與現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。
[Abstract]:Overcapacity refers to the situation in which the effective demand capacity of products in the market is far lower than the actual production capacity in the economic fluctuations, or the actual capacity output is lower than the optimal production capacity, and the resources are not fully utilized and idle. And often accompanied by inventory goods backlog, product prices fall, enterprise competition and industry profit decline and many other adverse phenomena. This kind of economic phenomenon exists generally in the whole market economy, and it is also an important problem in the process of our country's economic development in recent years. Short-term supply and demand imbalance often appears in the market economy, is a normal phenomenon; However, long-term overcapacity will often disorder the market order, aggravate the risk of economic fluctuations, and bring a lot of adverse effects on the healthy development of industrial structure and the normal operation of economic activities. In recent years, both the society and the government have paid great attention to the problem of overcapacity, and the government working conference has made resolving the contradiction of overcapacity an important task in the optimization and adjustment of industrial structure. The manufacturing industry of Jiangsu Province ranks among the top in the country, so it is necessary to measure the utilization rate of production capacity in the manufacturing industry of Jiangsu Province and to explore the influencing factors of its overcapacity. This paper firstly defines the connotation of overcapacity through graph and expounds the judgment standard of overcapacity, and then analyzes the overcapacity from the angle of microcosmic manufacturer with the relevant theory of economics. Then, it explains theoretically the causes of overcapacity in the context of the transition economy. Due to the fiscal decentralization and the system of promotion of officials, local governments have a strong incentive to pass through low-priced land. Bank budget soft constraints and financial subsidies even at the expense of the environment to "take care of" corporate investment behavior. At the same time, the formation mechanism of overcapacity is explained by establishing a simple game model. In this paper, the boundary production function is selected to measure the capacity utilization ratio of 28 manufacturing industries in Jiangsu Province in 2003-2012. According to the results, overcapacity is mainly concentrated in the following eight major industries: six of them are heavy industries, namely, chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing, pharmaceutical manufacturing, rubber products, plastics products, etc. Non-metallic mineral products industry, ferrous metal smelting and pressing industry; Light industry sector accounted for two, respectively, paper and paper products and chemical fiber manufacturing industry. The characteristics and trends of overcapacity in Jiangsu manufacturing industries are further analyzed. The results show that the change of capacity utilization ratio in most industries is in line with the trend of economic cycle fluctuation. Then using the invariant coefficient model in the panel data model, it is estimated that the local government intervention in Jiangsu has a positive effect on overcapacity, and the enterprise overinvestment plays an intermediary role in the influence of local government intervention on overcapacity. On this basis, it is of theoretical and practical significance to put forward corresponding policy suggestions, such as reducing local government intervention, perfecting the factor market system, strengthening the responsibility of environmental protection and so on.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：F424
本文編號(hào)：2377919
[Abstract]:Overcapacity refers to the situation in which the effective demand capacity of products in the market is far lower than the actual production capacity in the economic fluctuations, or the actual capacity output is lower than the optimal production capacity, and the resources are not fully utilized and idle. And often accompanied by inventory goods backlog, product prices fall, enterprise competition and industry profit decline and many other adverse phenomena. This kind of economic phenomenon exists generally in the whole market economy, and it is also an important problem in the process of our country's economic development in recent years. Short-term supply and demand imbalance often appears in the market economy, is a normal phenomenon; However, long-term overcapacity will often disorder the market order, aggravate the risk of economic fluctuations, and bring a lot of adverse effects on the healthy development of industrial structure and the normal operation of economic activities. In recent years, both the society and the government have paid great attention to the problem of overcapacity, and the government working conference has made resolving the contradiction of overcapacity an important task in the optimization and adjustment of industrial structure. The manufacturing industry of Jiangsu Province ranks among the top in the country, so it is necessary to measure the utilization rate of production capacity in the manufacturing industry of Jiangsu Province and to explore the influencing factors of its overcapacity. This paper firstly defines the connotation of overcapacity through graph and expounds the judgment standard of overcapacity, and then analyzes the overcapacity from the angle of microcosmic manufacturer with the relevant theory of economics. Then, it explains theoretically the causes of overcapacity in the context of the transition economy. Due to the fiscal decentralization and the system of promotion of officials, local governments have a strong incentive to pass through low-priced land. Bank budget soft constraints and financial subsidies even at the expense of the environment to "take care of" corporate investment behavior. At the same time, the formation mechanism of overcapacity is explained by establishing a simple game model. In this paper, the boundary production function is selected to measure the capacity utilization ratio of 28 manufacturing industries in Jiangsu Province in 2003-2012. According to the results, overcapacity is mainly concentrated in the following eight major industries: six of them are heavy industries, namely, chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing, pharmaceutical manufacturing, rubber products, plastics products, etc. Non-metallic mineral products industry, ferrous metal smelting and pressing industry; Light industry sector accounted for two, respectively, paper and paper products and chemical fiber manufacturing industry. The characteristics and trends of overcapacity in Jiangsu manufacturing industries are further analyzed. The results show that the change of capacity utilization ratio in most industries is in line with the trend of economic cycle fluctuation. Then using the invariant coefficient model in the panel data model, it is estimated that the local government intervention in Jiangsu has a positive effect on overcapacity, and the enterprise overinvestment plays an intermediary role in the influence of local government intervention on overcapacity. On this basis, it is of theoretical and practical significance to put forward corresponding policy suggestions, such as reducing local government intervention, perfecting the factor market system, strengthening the responsibility of environmental protection and so on.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：F424
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本文編號(hào)：2377919
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