【摘要】：21世紀(jì)以來(lái)，隨著社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的飛速發(fā)展和科技水平的不斷進(jìn)步，人們對(duì)電力系統(tǒng)的要求也越來(lái)越高。智能電網(wǎng)作為促進(jìn)節(jié)能減排、開(kāi)發(fā)可再生能源、實(shí)現(xiàn)可持續(xù)發(fā)展的重要手段，是未來(lái)電網(wǎng)的發(fā)展方向。其投資規(guī)模大、技術(shù)要求高、建設(shè)周期長(zhǎng)等特點(diǎn)使得智能電網(wǎng)項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)種類(lèi)繁多、變化復(fù)雜。因此，對(duì)智能電網(wǎng)項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行分析評(píng)估，對(duì)于項(xiàng)目的成敗有著至關(guān)重要的作用。 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)是企業(yè)投資智能電網(wǎng)項(xiàng)目過(guò)程中的關(guān)鍵環(huán)節(jié)，本文首先介紹了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別和評(píng)價(jià)方法的基本理論，通過(guò)科學(xué)的研究方法對(duì)智能電網(wǎng)項(xiàng)目投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的構(gòu)成和特點(diǎn)進(jìn)行分析，并將風(fēng)險(xiǎn)歸納分類(lèi)，建立了智能電網(wǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系。然后在對(duì)多種評(píng)價(jià)方法論述比較的基礎(chǔ)上，最終采用模糊綜合評(píng)價(jià)的方法，將層次分析法和模糊評(píng)價(jià)法相結(jié)合，獲得各層次風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素的權(quán)重和評(píng)價(jià)判斷矩陣，通過(guò)這種將定量與定性相結(jié)合的評(píng)價(jià)方法，對(duì)投資智能電網(wǎng)項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)做出客觀科學(xué)的綜合評(píng)價(jià)。 為進(jìn)一步證實(shí)所建立的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)模型的適用性，運(yùn)用模糊層次分析方法對(duì)國(guó)電南瑞投資智能變電站項(xiàng)目案例進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析和評(píng)價(jià)。首先結(jié)合實(shí)際建立了關(guān)于風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)的多層次綜合評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系，采用層次分析法和模糊數(shù)學(xué)理論確定指標(biāo)的權(quán)重,按照各類(lèi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素對(duì)項(xiàng)目的影響的嚴(yán)重程度進(jìn)行了評(píng)估，并進(jìn)一步探討了國(guó)電南瑞智能變電站建設(shè)項(xiàng)目各類(lèi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的應(yīng)對(duì)措施。 本文以智能電網(wǎng)項(xiàng)目與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理為研究目標(biāo)，探索了智能電網(wǎng)項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理中一些迷惑的問(wèn)題，為電力設(shè)備企業(yè)投資智能電網(wǎng)項(xiàng)目提供了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的理論依據(jù)和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)的方法，具有一定的理論價(jià)值和實(shí)踐意義。希望通過(guò)本文較為系統(tǒng)的研究，，能夠?qū)ξ覈?guó)智能電網(wǎng)項(xiàng)目投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的研究提供有益參考。
[Abstract]:Since the 21st century, with the rapid development of social economy and the continuous progress of science and technology, the demand of power system is becoming higher and higher. Smart grid, as an important means to promote energy saving and emission reduction, develop renewable energy and realize sustainable development, is the future development direction of power grid. The large scale of investment, high technical requirements and long construction cycle make the smart grid project risk variety and complex. Therefore, the risk analysis and assessment of smart grid project is very important to the success or failure of the project. Risk assessment is a key link in the process of enterprise investment in smart grid projects. This paper first introduces the basic theory of risk identification and evaluation methods, and analyzes the composition and characteristics of investment risks in smart grid projects through scientific research methods. The risk evaluation index system of smart grid is established by classifying the risk. Then, on the basis of the comparison of various evaluation methods, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is adopted, and the AHP and the fuzzy evaluation method are combined to obtain the weight and evaluation judgment matrix of the risk factors at each level. By combining quantitative and qualitative evaluation methods, this paper makes an objective and scientific comprehensive evaluation of the risk of investing in smart grid projects. In order to further confirm the applicability of the established risk assessment model, the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) method is used to analyze and evaluate the risk of the Nari intelligent substation project case. Firstly, the multi-level comprehensive evaluation index system of risk assessment is established, and the weight of the index is determined by AHP and fuzzy mathematics theory, and the severity of the impact of various risk factors on the project is evaluated. Furthermore, the measures to deal with the various risks in the construction project of Nari intelligent substation of Guodian Power are discussed. Aiming at smart grid project and risk management, this paper explores some puzzling problems in smart grid project risk management. It provides a theoretical basis for risk management and a method of risk evaluation for power equipment enterprises to invest in smart grid projects, which has certain theoretical value and practical significance. It is hoped that this paper will provide a useful reference for the research of investment risk of smart grid projects in China.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：蘇州大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F426.6;F272.3

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