電力設備企業(yè)投資智能電網(wǎng)項目的風險評價研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-11-23 07:39
【摘要】：21世紀以來，隨著社會經(jīng)濟的飛速發(fā)展和科技水平的不斷進步，人們對電力系統(tǒng)的要求也越來越高。智能電網(wǎng)作為促進節(jié)能減排、開發(fā)可再生能源、實現(xiàn)可持續(xù)發(fā)展的重要手段，是未來電網(wǎng)的發(fā)展方向。其投資規(guī)模大、技術(shù)要求高、建設周期長等特點使得智能電網(wǎng)項目風險種類繁多、變化復雜。因此，對智能電網(wǎng)項目的風險進行分析評估，對于項目的成敗有著至關(guān)重要的作用。 風險評價是企業(yè)投資智能電網(wǎng)項目過程中的關(guān)鍵環(huán)節(jié)，本文首先介紹了風險識別和評價方法的基本理論，通過科學的研究方法對智能電網(wǎng)項目投資風險的構(gòu)成和特點進行分析，并將風險歸納分類，建立了智能電網(wǎng)風險評價指標體系。然后在對多種評價方法論述比較的基礎上，最終采用模糊綜合評價的方法，將層次分析法和模糊評價法相結(jié)合，獲得各層次風險因素的權(quán)重和評價判斷矩陣，通過這種將定量與定性相結(jié)合的評價方法，對投資智能電網(wǎng)項目的風險做出客觀科學的綜合評價。 為進一步證實所建立的風險評價模型的適用性，運用模糊層次分析方法對國電南瑞投資智能變電站項目案例進行風險分析和評價。首先結(jié)合實際建立了關(guān)于風險評價的多層次綜合評價指標體系，采用層次分析法和模糊數(shù)學理論確定指標的權(quán)重,按照各類風險因素對項目的影響的嚴重程度進行了評估，并進一步探討了國電南瑞智能變電站建設項目各類風險的應對措施。 本文以智能電網(wǎng)項目與風險管理為研究目標，探索了智能電網(wǎng)項目風險管理中一些迷惑的問題，為電力設備企業(yè)投資智能電網(wǎng)項目提供了風險管理的理論依據(jù)和風險評價的方法，具有一定的理論價值和實踐意義。希望通過本文較為系統(tǒng)的研究，，能夠?qū)ξ覈悄茈娋W(wǎng)項目投資風險的研究提供有益參考。
[Abstract]:Since the 21st century, with the rapid development of social economy and the continuous progress of science and technology, the demand of power system is becoming higher and higher. Smart grid, as an important means to promote energy saving and emission reduction, develop renewable energy and realize sustainable development, is the future development direction of power grid. The large scale of investment, high technical requirements and long construction cycle make the smart grid project risk variety and complex. Therefore, the risk analysis and assessment of smart grid project is very important to the success or failure of the project. Risk assessment is a key link in the process of enterprise investment in smart grid projects. This paper first introduces the basic theory of risk identification and evaluation methods, and analyzes the composition and characteristics of investment risks in smart grid projects through scientific research methods. The risk evaluation index system of smart grid is established by classifying the risk. Then, on the basis of the comparison of various evaluation methods, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is adopted, and the AHP and the fuzzy evaluation method are combined to obtain the weight and evaluation judgment matrix of the risk factors at each level. By combining quantitative and qualitative evaluation methods, this paper makes an objective and scientific comprehensive evaluation of the risk of investing in smart grid projects. In order to further confirm the applicability of the established risk assessment model, the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) method is used to analyze and evaluate the risk of the Nari intelligent substation project case. Firstly, the multi-level comprehensive evaluation index system of risk assessment is established, and the weight of the index is determined by AHP and fuzzy mathematics theory, and the severity of the impact of various risk factors on the project is evaluated. Furthermore, the measures to deal with the various risks in the construction project of Nari intelligent substation of Guodian Power are discussed. Aiming at smart grid project and risk management, this paper explores some puzzling problems in smart grid project risk management. It provides a theoretical basis for risk management and a method of risk evaluation for power equipment enterprises to invest in smart grid projects, which has certain theoretical value and practical significance. It is hoped that this paper will provide a useful reference for the research of investment risk of smart grid projects in China.
【學位授予單位】：蘇州大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F426.6;F272.3
本文編號：2350807
[Abstract]:Since the 21st century, with the rapid development of social economy and the continuous progress of science and technology, the demand of power system is becoming higher and higher. Smart grid, as an important means to promote energy saving and emission reduction, develop renewable energy and realize sustainable development, is the future development direction of power grid. The large scale of investment, high technical requirements and long construction cycle make the smart grid project risk variety and complex. Therefore, the risk analysis and assessment of smart grid project is very important to the success or failure of the project. Risk assessment is a key link in the process of enterprise investment in smart grid projects. This paper first introduces the basic theory of risk identification and evaluation methods, and analyzes the composition and characteristics of investment risks in smart grid projects through scientific research methods. The risk evaluation index system of smart grid is established by classifying the risk. Then, on the basis of the comparison of various evaluation methods, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is adopted, and the AHP and the fuzzy evaluation method are combined to obtain the weight and evaluation judgment matrix of the risk factors at each level. By combining quantitative and qualitative evaluation methods, this paper makes an objective and scientific comprehensive evaluation of the risk of investing in smart grid projects. In order to further confirm the applicability of the established risk assessment model, the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) method is used to analyze and evaluate the risk of the Nari intelligent substation project case. Firstly, the multi-level comprehensive evaluation index system of risk assessment is established, and the weight of the index is determined by AHP and fuzzy mathematics theory, and the severity of the impact of various risk factors on the project is evaluated. Furthermore, the measures to deal with the various risks in the construction project of Nari intelligent substation of Guodian Power are discussed. Aiming at smart grid project and risk management, this paper explores some puzzling problems in smart grid project risk management. It provides a theoretical basis for risk management and a method of risk evaluation for power equipment enterprises to invest in smart grid projects, which has certain theoretical value and practical significance. It is hoped that this paper will provide a useful reference for the research of investment risk of smart grid projects in China.
【學位授予單位】：蘇州大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F426.6;F272.3
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