本文選題：風(fēng)險(xiǎn)傳遞 + 輸電中斷風(fēng)險(xiǎn)��； 參考：《華北電力大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的不斷增長以及現(xiàn)代社會數(shù)字高科技設(shè)備的廣泛應(yīng)用,國民經(jīng)濟(jì)對電力供應(yīng)的依賴性不斷增強(qiáng),一旦發(fā)生電力中斷事故,不但電網(wǎng)企業(yè)將受到直接影響,而且給用戶的生產(chǎn)、生活乃至整個(gè)社會造成嚴(yán)重的經(jīng)濟(jì)影響。為了提高電網(wǎng)企業(yè)的供電可靠性,建立電網(wǎng)企業(yè)輸電中斷風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估體系以及對電力中斷事故造成的損失進(jìn)行估算具有有重要的理論意義和實(shí)踐指導(dǎo)價(jià)值。 本文作為華北電力大學(xué)“211工程”三期校內(nèi)面上項(xiàng)目《信息化環(huán)境下供電風(fēng)險(xiǎn)傳遞理論與應(yīng)用研究》主要研究內(nèi)容之一,對基于風(fēng)險(xiǎn)傳遞理論的電網(wǎng)企業(yè)輸電中斷風(fēng)險(xiǎn)傳遞理論模型及其應(yīng)用進(jìn)行了重點(diǎn)研究。本文首先對輸電中斷以及輸電中斷風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的國內(nèi)外研究現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行綜述,并對國內(nèi)外研究現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行了簡要分析,并由此提出本文所要研究的問題。其次對風(fēng)險(xiǎn)元傳遞的基礎(chǔ)理論進(jìn)行了闡述,包括風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)元的定義、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)傳遞的概念以及風(fēng)險(xiǎn)傳遞理論涉及的數(shù)學(xué)基礎(chǔ),為后面的研究打下了理論基礎(chǔ)。接著分析了輸電中斷產(chǎn)生原因、輸電中斷風(fēng)險(xiǎn)傳遞過程及影響,在此基礎(chǔ)上建立了電網(wǎng)企業(yè)輸電中斷風(fēng)險(xiǎn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析的層次傳遞模型,并運(yùn)用信息擴(kuò)散方法和CBRM管理體系對輸電中斷風(fēng)險(xiǎn)元進(jìn)行定量研究。然后運(yùn)用產(chǎn)電比方法并引用斷電影響系數(shù)從整個(gè)社會的角度對輸電中斷的損失進(jìn)行估算。最后運(yùn)用算例驗(yàn)證了以上提出方法的科學(xué)性、可靠性和實(shí)用性。
[Abstract]:With the continuous growth of the national economy and the wide application of digital high-tech equipment in modern society, the dependence of the national economy on the power supply is increasing. Once the power interruption accident occurs, not only the power grid enterprises will be directly affected. And to the production of users, life and even the entire society caused serious economic impact. In order to improve the power supply reliability of power grid enterprises, it is of great theoretical significance and practical guiding value to establish a transmission interruption risk assessment system and to estimate the losses caused by power interruption accidents. This paper is one of the main research contents of the "211 Project" of North China University of Electric Power, which is one of the main research contents of "the Theory and Application of Power supply risk Transmission in the Information Environment". The theoretical model and application of transmission interruption risk transfer in power grid enterprises based on risk transfer theory are studied. In this paper, the research status of transmission interruption and transmission interruption risk at home and abroad is first summarized, and the research status at home and abroad is briefly analyzed, and the problems to be studied in this paper are put forward. Secondly, the basic theory of risk transmission is expounded, including the definition of risk, the definition of risk element, the concept of risk transmission and the mathematical basis of risk transfer theory, which lays a theoretical foundation for the later research. Then, the causes of transmission interruption, the transmission risk transmission process and its influence are analyzed, and the hierarchical transmission model of transmission interruption risk analysis in power grid enterprises is established. The information diffusion method and CBRM management system are used to quantitatively study the transmission interruption risk element. Then the loss of transmission interruption is estimated from the point of view of the whole society by using the power generation ratio method and the power failure influence coefficient. Finally, the scientific, reliability and practicability of the proposed method are verified by an example.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F272.3;F426.61;TM732

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 孫宏斌;張伯明;吳文傳;郭慶來;張沛;;面向中國智能輸電網(wǎng)的智能控制中心[J];電力科學(xué)與技術(shù)學(xué)報(bào);2009年02期

2 戚本超;周達(dá);;北京城市職能發(fā)展演變研究[J];城市問題;2006年07期

3 張勇軍;任倩;汪穗峰;任震;;分類用戶單位停電損失函數(shù)的確定及應(yīng)用[J];電氣應(yīng)用;2008年03期

4 周景;王麗娟;邵作之;;基于AHP的電網(wǎng)自然災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估方法[J];電力建設(shè);2011年12期

5 郭永基;加強(qiáng)電力系統(tǒng)可靠性的研究和應(yīng)用——北美東部大停電的思考[J];電力系統(tǒng)自動化;2003年19期

6 甘德強(qiáng),胡江溢,韓禎祥;2003年國際若干停電事故思考[J];電力系統(tǒng)自動化;2004年03期

7 李海英;李渝曾;張少華;;可中斷負(fù)荷參與輸電阻塞管理的模型與算法[J];電力系統(tǒng)自動化;2006年10期

8 林偉明;康重慶;胡左浩;咸日常;孫學(xué)鋒;張有洲;;改善供用電可靠性的新型停電保險(xiǎn)機(jī)制[J];電力系統(tǒng)自動化;2006年18期

9 李再華;白曉民;丁劍;周子冠;方竹;;西歐大停電事故分析[J];電力系統(tǒng)自動化;2007年01期

10 陳向宜;陳允平;李春艷;鄧長虹;;構(gòu)建大電網(wǎng)安全防御體系——?dú)W洲大停電事故的分析及思考[J];電力系統(tǒng)自動化;2007年01期

相關(guān)博士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 趙煒煒;電網(wǎng)大停電分析模型及預(yù)防應(yīng)急體系研究[D];華北電力大學(xué)（北京）;2009年

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前2條

1 王建軍;廣義項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)元傳遞理論算法及軟件實(shí)現(xiàn)[D];華北電力大學(xué)（北京）;2008年

2 李賢;工程項(xiàng)目經(jīng)濟(jì)評價(jià)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)元傳遞模型及其應(yīng)用[D];華北電力大學(xué)（北京）;2009年

，

本文編號：1867160