本文選題：能源替代　切入點(diǎn)：不可再生能源　出處：《系統(tǒng)工程》2014年03期

【摘要】：基于可再生能源對(duì)不可再生能源替代視角研究能源企業(yè)間的動(dòng)態(tài)博弈問(wèn)題。假定不可再生能源企業(yè)面對(duì)的是能源儲(chǔ)量約束,而可再生能源企業(yè)面對(duì)的是技術(shù)知識(shí)約束,并將RD投資作為可再生能源的決策變量。本文的基本結(jié)論為:(1)可再生能源產(chǎn)出增長(zhǎng)率恒為正,且不斷增大;不可再生能源產(chǎn)出增長(zhǎng)率恒為負(fù),且不斷降低。但在替代過(guò)程中,能源總產(chǎn)出增長(zhǎng)率的符號(hào)不確定,為正的條件是技術(shù)積累的正效應(yīng)大于市場(chǎng)博弈的負(fù)效應(yīng)。(2)能源替代速率恒為正,即可再生能源會(huì)逐步取代不可再生能源。替代速率隨能源間差異性降低而增加,隨技術(shù)折舊率減小而增大,隨貼現(xiàn)率的增加而增加。(3)當(dāng)不可再生能源企業(yè)退出市場(chǎng)時(shí),系統(tǒng)剛好達(dá)到鞍點(diǎn)均衡。即存在一條穩(wěn)定路徑趨向均衡點(diǎn)。
[Abstract]:Based on the perspective of renewable energy alternatives to non-renewable energy, the dynamic game problem among energy enterprises is studied.It is assumed that non-renewable energy enterprises face energy reserve constraints, while renewable energy enterprises face technical knowledge constraints, and R D investment is regarded as the decision variable of renewable energy.The basic conclusion of this paper is: (1) the growth rate of renewable energy output is always positive and increasing, while the growth rate of non-renewable energy output is always negative and decreasing.However, in the process of substitution, the sign of total energy output growth rate is uncertain, and the positive condition is that the positive effect of technology accumulation is greater than the negative effect of market game. 2) the rate of energy substitution is constant and positive, that is, renewable energy will gradually replace non-renewable energy.The substitution rate increases with the decrease of energy difference, increases with the decrease of technology depreciation rate, and increases with the increase of discount rate) when the non-renewable energy enterprises withdraw from the market, the system reaches the saddle point equilibrium.That is, there is a stable path towards equilibrium point.
【作者單位】： 暨南大學(xué)產(chǎn)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)研究院;
【基金】：廣東省高等學(xué)校珠江學(xué)者崗位計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目(2012) 國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金資助項(xiàng)目(71271100)
【分類號(hào)】：F407.22

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