本文選題：反傾銷　切入點：鋼鐵產(chǎn)業(yè)　出處：《湖南大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：隨著我國出口貿(mào)易額的快速增長，遭遇的反傾銷數(shù)量大幅增加，反傾銷逐漸演變?yōu)橘Q(mào)易保護的手段，對我國經(jīng)濟的負面影響愈加明顯。其中，鋼鐵產(chǎn)業(yè)已成眾多產(chǎn)業(yè)中遭遇反傾銷最嚴重的產(chǎn)業(yè)。因此，系統(tǒng)的分析國際反傾銷對鋼鐵產(chǎn)業(yè)的影響，并且建立有效的預(yù)警機制，對遏制目前日趨嚴重的國際鋼鐵反傾銷調(diào)查具有重要的現(xiàn)實意義。 本文首先從國外對華反傾銷方面進行了理論綜述，對目前的中國鋼鐵產(chǎn)品出口遭遇的反傾銷現(xiàn)狀進行了分析；其次，就國際反傾銷對中國鋼鐵產(chǎn)業(yè)造成的影響和成因分別從貿(mào)易效應(yīng)、非貿(mào)易效應(yīng)、內(nèi)部原因、外部原因四方面進行詳細的梳理；第三，進一步通過投入產(chǎn)出表建立了價格傳導(dǎo)模型,分析了鋼鐵產(chǎn)業(yè)被征收反傾銷稅后是否會通過產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈的傳導(dǎo)作用對其他產(chǎn)業(yè)造成價格影響。最后，本文以中美鋼鐵貿(mào)易為例，對反傾銷做出預(yù)警以及對現(xiàn)有預(yù)警模型進行驗證并提出政策建議。 研究顯示：第一，中國已經(jīng)成為全球范圍內(nèi)鋼鐵產(chǎn)業(yè)被反傾銷調(diào)查最多的國家,199年至2011年共遭受來自27個國家共計219起反傾銷調(diào)查案件。嚴重的貿(mào)易摩擦通過貿(mào)易效應(yīng)和非貿(mào)易效應(yīng)嚴重阻礙了中國產(chǎn)品的出口、降低了中國對他國的出口集中度、引發(fā)多米諾骨效應(yīng)，并且反傾銷措施的對鋼鐵產(chǎn)業(yè)的副作用會通過產(chǎn)業(yè)關(guān)聯(lián)效應(yīng)影響國內(nèi)其他產(chǎn)業(yè)，沖擊國內(nèi)市場，，惡化中國投資環(huán)境，阻礙中國產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整和技術(shù)改造的過程。第二，通過宏觀經(jīng)濟影響因素和微觀產(chǎn)業(yè)影響因素分析，中國對貿(mào)易國的貿(mào)易順差、貿(mào)易集中度、貿(mào)易國的宏觀經(jīng)濟形勢以及中國經(jīng)濟地位與反傾銷調(diào)查之間存在一定相關(guān)性，總體而言貿(mào)易伙伴國貿(mào)易環(huán)境和國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟環(huán)境的惡化會增加對我國的反傾銷調(diào)查。第三，從國家宏觀經(jīng)濟狀況、雙邊貿(mào)易摩擦和產(chǎn)業(yè)實質(zhì)損害三個角度建立了預(yù)警指標體系，并結(jié)合計量和主成分分析法建立了鋼鐵反傾銷預(yù)警模型。通過中美鋼鐵貿(mào)易1999年至2010年的數(shù)據(jù)驗證，發(fā)現(xiàn)該預(yù)警系統(tǒng)能成功模擬預(yù)測2011年中國鋼鐵遭遇美國反傾銷調(diào)查數(shù)量，并且預(yù)測結(jié)果與現(xiàn)實相符,說明本文所構(gòu)建的預(yù)警模型有一定的作用。
[Abstract]:With the rapid growth of China's export trade volume, the amount of anti-dumping encountered has increased substantially. Anti-dumping has gradually evolved into a means of trade protection, and the negative impact on China's economy has become more and more obvious. The iron and steel industry has become the most serious one in many industries. Therefore, the impact of international anti-dumping on steel industry is systematically analyzed, and an effective early warning mechanism is established. It has important practical significance to curb the international iron and steel anti-dumping investigation. This paper firstly summarizes the theory of anti-dumping against China from abroad, and analyzes the current situation of anti-dumping in China's iron and steel products export. The impact and causes of international anti-dumping on China's iron and steel industry are analyzed in detail from four aspects: trade effect, non-trade effect, internal cause and external reason. Third, Furthermore, the price conduction model is established through the input-output table, and it is analyzed whether the iron and steel industry will influence the price of other industries through the conduction effect of the industrial chain after the anti-dumping duty is levied. Finally, this paper takes the Sino-American steel trade as an example. Early warning of anti-dumping and verification of existing early warning models and policy recommendations. Research shows that: first, China has become the largest country in the world in which the steel industry has been the subject of anti-dumping investigations. From 1999 to 2011, China suffered a total of 219 anti-dumping cases from 27 countries. Serious trade frictions were carried out through trade effects and non-trade effects. Should seriously hinder the export of Chinese products, It reduces the concentration of China's exports to other countries, causing a domino effect, and the adverse effects of anti-dumping measures on the steel industry will affect other domestic industries through industrial linkage effects, impact the domestic market, and worsen China's investment environment. Obstructing the process of China's industrial restructuring and technological transformation. Second, through the analysis of macroeconomic and micro-industrial factors, China's trade surplus and trade concentration with trading countries are analyzed. There is a certain correlation between the macroeconomic situation of trading countries and China's economic status and anti-dumping investigations. In general, the deterioration of trade environment and domestic economic environment in trading partner countries will increase anti-dumping investigations against China. Third, From the national macroeconomic situation, bilateral trade friction and industrial substantial damage, a warning index system has been established. Combined with measurement and principal component analysis, an antidumping early warning model of iron and steel was established. The data from 1999 to 2010 of Sino-US iron and steel trade proved that the early warning system could successfully simulate and predict the number of US anti-dumping investigations against Chinese steel in 2011. And the prediction results are consistent with the reality, which shows that the early warning model constructed in this paper has a certain role.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：湖南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F752.02;F426.3

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