本文關(guān)鍵詞： 經(jīng)濟增長 煤炭 貢獻率　出處：《北京林業(yè)大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：作為經(jīng)濟發(fā)展和社會生活必要的物質(zhì)基礎(chǔ)之一,能源已經(jīng)越來越受各國重視。對于我國特別是山西省來說,最重要的能源就是煤炭。為了研究改革開放以來山西省的煤炭經(jīng)濟和經(jīng)濟增長之間的關(guān)系,本文搜集了山西省1978-2011年的相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù),通過煤炭消耗強度和煤炭消費彈性兩個指標分析了山西省煤炭消費和經(jīng)濟增長之間的關(guān)系,通過煤炭采選業(yè)占GDP比重和煤炭生產(chǎn)彈性兩個指標分析了山西省煤炭生產(chǎn)和經(jīng)濟增長之間的關(guān)系,通過加入煤炭投入要素的改進的C-D生產(chǎn)函數(shù)模型分析了山西省煤炭投入對經(jīng)濟增長的貢獻率。本文的主要結(jié)論有： (1)靜態(tài)來看,山西省的經(jīng)濟增長對煤炭的依賴性較強,煤炭利用效率低。目前,山西省的經(jīng)濟總體水平處于全國中下游,但煤炭產(chǎn)量和消費量都位于全國第二位；山西省的煤炭消耗強度仍然遠高于全國平均水平,煤炭采選業(yè)占GDP的比重高達32.8%,煤炭的消費彈性和生產(chǎn)彈性分別高達0.7和1.4。 (2)動態(tài)來看,山西省的經(jīng)濟增長對煤炭的依賴情況有所好轉(zhuǎn)。改革開放以來,山西省的煤炭消耗強度呈波動性下滑趨勢,且近些年來的下降速度明顯快于全國平均水平,煤炭消費彈性在2001-2010年期間明顯低于全國平均水平；萬元GDP的煤炭產(chǎn)量逐漸下降,煤炭生產(chǎn)彈性在2001-2010年期間顯著低于內(nèi)蒙古和陜西省。 (3)短期內(nèi),山西省的經(jīng)濟增長對煤炭投入的整體依賴性不會迅速降低到較低的穩(wěn)定水平。煤炭投入量對山西省經(jīng)濟增長的貢獻率在1981-1990年期間高達32.1%,在1991-2000年期間降至7.2%,但在2001-2010年期間又迅速反彈至21.4%,在1981-2010年整個期間高達19.7%。 綜上所述,山西省的經(jīng)濟增長對煤炭資源開發(fā)利用的依賴性較強,短期內(nèi)不能脫離對煤炭的利用,但長期來看會逐漸好轉(zhuǎn)。因此,山西省短期內(nèi)應(yīng)提高煤炭的勘探、開采和潔凈煤技術(shù),節(jié)約煤炭資源,淘汰低產(chǎn)能高污染企業(yè),合理規(guī)劃煤炭的開發(fā)和利用；而長期內(nèi)必須積極開發(fā)利用多種可再生能源,徹底轉(zhuǎn)變經(jīng)濟發(fā)展思路,實現(xiàn)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的優(yōu)化和升級。
[Abstract]:As one of the necessary material bases of economic development and social life, energy has been paid more and more attention by many countries. The most important energy is coal. In order to study the relationship between coal economy and economic growth in Shanxi Province since the reform and opening up, this paper collected the relevant data of Shanxi Province from 1978 to 2011. The relationship between coal consumption and economic growth in Shanxi Province is analyzed by means of coal consumption intensity and coal consumption elasticity. The relationship between coal production and economic growth in Shanxi Province is analyzed through the ratio of coal mining and separation industry to GDP and the elasticity of coal production. The contribution rate of coal input to economic growth in Shanxi Province is analyzed by adding the improved C-D production function model of coal input elements. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: From the static point of view, the economic growth of Shanxi Province is strongly dependent on coal, and the efficiency of coal utilization is low. At present, the overall level of economy in Shanxi Province is in the middle and lower reaches of the country. However, coal production and consumption are in the second place in the country; The intensity of coal consumption in Shanxi Province is still far higher than the national average. The proportion of coal mining and separation industry in GDP is as high as 32.8%, and the consumption elasticity and production elasticity of coal are as high as 0.7 and 1.4 respectively. 2) dynamically, the economic growth of Shanxi Province has improved its dependence on coal. Since the reform and opening up, the intensity of coal consumption in Shanxi Province has shown a downward trend of volatility. In recent years, the rate of decline is obviously faster than the national average, and the elasticity of coal consumption is obviously lower than the national average in the period 2001-2010. The coal production of GDP decreased gradually, and the elasticity of coal production was significantly lower than that of Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi Province in 2001-2010. 3) in the short term. The overall dependence of Shanxi's economic growth on coal input will not rapidly decrease to a relatively low stable level. The contribution rate of coal input to Shanxi's economic growth reached 32.1 during 1981-1990. %. It fell to 7.2 in 1991-2000, but quickly rebounded to 21.4 in 2001-2010, reaching 19.7in the whole period 1981-2010. To sum up, the economic growth of Shanxi Province is strongly dependent on the development and utilization of coal resources, and can not be separated from the use of coal in the short term, but in the long run it will gradually improve. In the short term, Shanxi should improve coal exploration, mining and clean coal technology, save coal resources, eliminate low production capacity and high pollution enterprises, and rationally plan the development and utilization of coal. In the long run, we must actively develop and utilize a variety of renewable energy sources, thoroughly change the thinking of economic development, and realize the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北京林業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F127;F426.21;F224

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