本文關鍵詞：一類有限理性的建模和決策分析方法的研究，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。

華中科技大學；博士學位論文；一類有限理性的建模和決策分析方法的研究；姓名：王清；申請學位級別：博士；專業(yè)：系統(tǒng)工程；指導教師：趙勇；20091101；華中科技大學博士學位論文；摘要；決策理論的發(fā)展始終伴隨著對理性的研究和探討；本文旨在建立一類有限理性的數(shù)學模型，分析現(xiàn)實決策；應用上，本文考慮到設計者和用戶在產(chǎn)品概念設計中的；華中科技大學博士學位論文；證了該方

華中科技大學

博士學位論文

一類有限理性的建模和決策分析方法的研究

姓名：王清

申請學位級別：博士

專業(yè)：系統(tǒng)工程

指導教師：趙勇

20091101

華 中 科 技 大 學 博 士 學 位 論 文

摘 要

決策理論的發(fā)展始終伴隨著對理性的研究和探討。經(jīng)典決策理論的核心是建立在Von Neumann-Morgenstern的效用存在性公理體系上的期望效用理論，但是現(xiàn)實中許多人不是理想的“經(jīng)濟人”，，即使有決策分析人員協(xié)助并有充裕時間對重大而又復雜的問題作決策時，也不是完全理性的。隨著一些選擇悖論的發(fā)現(xiàn)以及心理學、行為學實驗對經(jīng)典決策理論的質(zhì)疑，學者們開始剖析和研究人類實際存在的有限理性特性，嘗試修正和完善傳統(tǒng)的決策模型，以期建立可用于描述個體真實行為的決策理論與分析方法。

本文旨在建立一類有限理性的數(shù)學模型，分析現(xiàn)實決策者個體偏好不一致現(xiàn)象中潛在的一些理性規(guī)律，并將其用于指導并改進生產(chǎn)實踐中的決策活動。論文的一個核心思想是：決策者的偏好可分為內(nèi)在偏好和顯示偏好兩種，其中顯示偏好是評價和衡量決策者內(nèi)在理性的一個重要依據(jù)。具體地，針對多方案選擇中偏好的不一致性，本文建立了基于準則的偏好關系模型，分析了偏好特性與個體內(nèi)在理性之間的潛在規(guī)律，解釋了問題形式的改變而導致悖論的原因；通過建立序數(shù)偏好和基數(shù)效用的有限感知模型，研究了公理化條件下決策函數(shù)與偏好的一致關系，可為復雜問題中決策者決策行為的理性分析和評價提供依據(jù)，同時給出了提高決策者滿意度的具體策略和建議；結(jié)合決策者的經(jīng)驗理性，討論了案例決策中的雙重理性決策模式，并建立了基于案例的有限理性決策模型，該模型在降低決策偏差的同時，也保留了經(jīng)驗模式的創(chuàng)新啟發(fā)性。

應用上，本文考慮到設計者和用戶在產(chǎn)品概念設計中的有限理性特征，將產(chǎn)品概念設計和案例決策分析方法相結(jié)合，強調(diào)人在設計過程中的思維轉(zhuǎn)化和導向作用，研究了一類“以人為中心”的產(chǎn)品概念設計方法。該方法應用迭代循環(huán)的設計流程和靈活可變的索引規(guī)則，遵循“從特殊到一般，從整體到局部”的設計思路，不斷對產(chǎn)品設計方案進行調(diào)整和完善，形成最終設計方案。該方法不但降低了構建案例庫的復雜程度，也提高了推理過程對設計者創(chuàng)新能力的啟發(fā)作用，在“以人為中心”的產(chǎn)品概念設計方法的研究領域是一個嘗試。而且，應用一個摩托車設計的實例驗

華 中 科 技 大 學 博 士 學 位 論 文

證了該方法指導產(chǎn)品設計的可行性。

本文探討的一類有限理性建模問題，在一定程度上突破了理性不可度量的瓶頸，為深化復雜問題的決策分析給出了一個新的途徑和方法，這對于社會經(jīng)濟系統(tǒng)的機理復雜性研究、正確認識和理解現(xiàn)實經(jīng)濟現(xiàn)象以及有效處理實際決策問題，有著重要的理論意義和學術價值。

關鍵詞：決策理性; 選擇悖論; 有限理性建模; 有限感知; 顯示偏好; 案例決策; 經(jīng)驗理性; 產(chǎn)品概念設計.

華 中 科 技 大 學 博 士 學 位 論 文

Abstract

Decision theory is developed all along with the research and the discussion of rationality. The core of classical decision theory is established on the Expected Utility Theory based on utility existence axioms system of Von Neumann-Morgenstern. However, many real-life people are not perfect economic men even if they solve complex decision problems with assistance from decision analysers and enough time. In the wake of the paradoxes of choice and doubts of classical decision theory from psychological and behavioral experiments, scholars started to analyze and study the subsistent bounded rational characteristics of human beings. Available decision models are amended to establish and analyze the decision theory and methods to describe actual individual decision.

The aim is to establish the mathematical model of bounded rationality and analyze rational disciplines hidden behind the phenomenon of inconsistent preferences of individual decision makers which can be used to guide to make decisions during the production practices. One of the core concepts is that, the decision preferences can be devided into internal preferences and revealed preferences, in which, the revealed preference is an important indicator for evaluating and measuring the intrinsic rationality. Specifically, aiming at the inconsistency of preferences during choice problems, the latent relationship between the preferences and individual rationality is revealed by the criteria-based preference model which explains the basic reason of the preference bias caused by the problem’s formal changes. By establishing mathematic models based on ordinal preference and cardinal utility, the consistence between decision functions and preferences under the axiomatic conditions are discussed. The conclusion provides the theoretical foundation of individual decision-making capacity assessment in complex problems and indicate the method which can increase the satisfactory degree of decision-making. For the empirical rationality of decision-makers, the double rational mode of case-based decision is discussed and its bounded decision model is constructed. This model can be used in the innovative design and to reduce possiblity of decision bias.

In application, the bounded rational characteristics of designers and customers during

華 中 科 技 大 學 博 士 學 位 論 文

the products conceptual design progress are considered. The products conceptual design and case-based decision analysis methods are integrated to construct human centered products conceptual design method. The method adjusts and perfects the design proposal during the iterative loops process with flexible index regulations. The design method not only reduces the complexibility of case library construction but also improves the innovation implication for designers during the reasoning process. The viability of the method is finally demonstrated by a motorcycle product design instance.

The bounded rational models established in the thesis breakthrough the bottleneck of immeasurable rationality and open up new ways to deepen the decision analysis of complex problems. The models can be used for reference in research on the mechanism complexity of the social economic system, and has the important theoretical significance and academic value in understanding the realistic economic phenomena correctly and treating practical decision problem effectively.

Key words：Ratinonality of decision making; the paradox of choice; bounded rationality modeling; bounded perception; revealed preference; case-based decision; empirical rational; product conceptual design.

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  本文關鍵詞：一類有限理性的建模和決策分析方法的研究，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。