本文選題：臺風風暴潮 + 風險評估�。� 參考：《華東師范大學》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：中國東部沿海地區(qū)位于太平洋風暴盆地西北緣,臺風風暴潮災害頻發(fā),造成的損失具有不斷增加的趨勢,而上海作為全國經(jīng)濟、金融中心,一旦發(fā)生臺風風暴潮災害將會造成巨大的經(jīng)濟和社會損失�，F(xiàn)有臺風風暴潮風險研究多以歷史臺風風暴潮事件重現(xiàn)模擬為主,缺乏基于情景的完善的風險評估方法體系,對災害空間尺度問題更是鮮有涉及。本文基于歷史臺風風暴潮災害信息,利用概率統(tǒng)計方法和GIS空間建模方法,構建基于情景的臺風風暴潮災害風險評估方法體系,并就空間尺度效應進行探討,這對臺風風暴潮災害風險研究具有一定的借鑒意義。 在國家自然科學基金重點項目“沿海城市自然災害風險評估實證研究(40730526)”、上海市教育委員會科研創(chuàng)新項目“上海地區(qū)臺風-風暴潮-暴雨災害鏈綜合風險防范研究(13ZZ035)”、上海市科技啟明星人才計劃“基于情景分析的上海市自然災害風險評估與區(qū)劃研究(09QA1401800)”、華東師范大學科研創(chuàng)新基金項目“不同時空尺度災害鏈綜合風險評估研究-以上海為例”的資助下,論文選取中國東部沿海和上海地區(qū)作為兩種空間尺度實證研究區(qū),基于情景思想,綜合運用臺風危險性情景生成工具、水文數(shù)值模擬軟件DHI MIKE21以及ArcGIS工具,按照“風險辨識-情景構建-危險性評估-脆弱性評估-風險區(qū)劃及防范”的災害風險研究體系,開展兩種空間尺度風險評估工作,并提出有針對性的風險防范措施,同時探討臺風風暴潮災害風險研究的空間尺度效應。本研究開展的工作及研究成果概況為： 1、基于情景思想,利用概率統(tǒng)計和GIS空間建模方法,構建兩種空間尺度臺風風暴潮災害危險性模型,并提出了一套完整的臺風風暴潮災害風險評估方法體系：(1)統(tǒng)計分析2118場臺風數(shù)據(jù),開發(fā)建立臺風危險性情景生成工具,并生成W20、W50、W100、 WN20、WN50、WN100、S20、S50、S100共三類9場臺風情景數(shù)據(jù)。以臺風為驅(qū)動力,在DHI MIKE21平臺下完成臺風風暴潮危險性模型構建。(2)從臺風危險性情景構建、臺風驅(qū)動下風暴潮災害危險性模擬、臺風風暴潮災害風險評估三個方面構建了基于情景的臺風風暴潮災害風險評估方法體系。 2、以中國東部沿海地區(qū)為大尺度實證研究區(qū),開展臺風風暴潮災害風險評估：(1)從9種情景臺風風暴潮災危險性評估結果上看,西移型情景臺風風暴潮主要影響廣東和海南兩省,西北移型主要影響福建和浙江兩個省份,轉(zhuǎn)向型主要影響區(qū)域為浙江、上海、江蘇三個地區(qū)；極端臺風(100年一遇)情景下,西移型、西北移型、轉(zhuǎn)向型情景淹沒面積分別為10124、17915、23916km2。(2)選取3種極端危險性情景,開展臺風風暴潮災害脆弱性評估,從結果中可以看到,W100、WN100情景影響區(qū)域內(nèi),臺風風暴潮災害脆弱性等級多為1或2,處于中低水平；S100情景影響下的地區(qū)脆弱性等級較高,上海地區(qū)脆弱性等級為4。(3)基于臺風風暴潮災害危險性和脆弱性評估,進行風險區(qū)劃,廣東雷州半島、海南島沿海地區(qū)、浙江省東南部及杭州灣、江蘇省南部為中風險區(qū),上海市東部為中高風險區(qū)。(4)依據(jù)風險區(qū)劃結果,提出中國東部沿海地區(qū)臺風風暴潮災害風險防范措施,即大尺度臺風風暴潮災害風險防范工作應把重點放在戰(zhàn)略和政策導向方面,如調(diào)整社會發(fā)展模式,促進經(jīng)濟和自然協(xié)調(diào)與可持續(xù)發(fā)展。 3、以上海地區(qū)為中尺度實證研究區(qū),開展臺風風暴潮災害風險評估：(1)從3種情景(W100、WN100、S100)臺風風暴潮災害危險性評估結果上看,上海主要淹沒區(qū)域集中在崇明島南部、長興島沿岸、橫沙島西側、寶山區(qū)、浦東新區(qū)以及奉賢、金山沿海地區(qū)；極端臺風情景(S100)下,淹沒面積為351km2。(2)在脆弱性評估方面,上海高等級脆弱性主要存在于上海市崇明島南岸、長興島南岸、寶山沿海地區(qū)、浦東濱海以及金山南部沿海。上述區(qū)域多為公共管理與公共服務用地及交通運輸用地。(3)風險區(qū)劃顯示,上海地區(qū)極高危險區(qū)主要是崇明島南端、寶山及浦東港口用地、金山南端。(4)依據(jù)風險區(qū)劃結果,上海中尺度上,針對高風險區(qū),風險防范應以風險管理和城市規(guī)劃為導向,開展工程和生物防范工作,如在寶山、浦東、金山等極高風險區(qū)加固海塘,構建梯級防御工事等。 4、基于中國東部沿海和上海地區(qū)實證研究,探討臺風風暴潮災害風險的空間尺度效應：(1)危險性空間尺度效應主要體現(xiàn)在情景構建方法上,即大尺度選用全部9種臺風情景,中尺度僅選擇顯著影響該區(qū)域的3種,此外,大尺度模型開邊界遠大于中尺度,而在模擬結果精度上,中尺度明顯好于大尺度。(2)脆弱性上具有評估方法和結果精度兩方面的空間尺度效應,大尺度脆弱性評估將一級用地類型作為承災體,中尺度脆弱性評估則選用二級用地類型為承災體,因此中尺度臺風風暴潮災害脆弱性評估結果較大尺度更為精確。(3)臺風風暴潮災害風險區(qū)劃的空間尺度效應表現(xiàn)為,在區(qū)劃方法一致的前提下,由于數(shù)據(jù)精度的差別導致區(qū)劃結果不同,即大尺度風險區(qū)劃中,上海地區(qū)中高風險區(qū)僅出現(xiàn)在東北部黃浦江入�？诟浇�,其余地方以低風險區(qū)為主；中尺度風險區(qū)劃則更為細化,崇明島沿岸多為中低風險區(qū),寶山區(qū)沿海多為中高風險區(qū),浦東沿海地區(qū)、南匯、奉賢基本為中低風險區(qū),極高風險區(qū)分布在崇明島南部沿岸、長興島南端、寶山、浦東港口用地處以及金山最南端。(4)在分析空間尺度效應基礎上,利用空間降尺度方法構建了不同空間尺度耦合模式,包括數(shù)據(jù)耦合、方法耦合以及區(qū)劃耦合。 論文特色與創(chuàng)新：(1)強調(diào)災害危險性情景的科學性和合理性：本研究在對中國東部沿海近50年臺風資料進行分析基礎上,利用概率統(tǒng)計學方法,對臺風災害的危險性進行統(tǒng)計分析,從而建立科學的危險性情景。(2)重視臺風風暴潮災害風險研究的工具與方法研究：本文從臺風危險性情景構建、臺風驅(qū)動下風暴潮災害危險性模擬、臺風風暴潮災害風險評估三個方面建立科學的研究方法體系,并成功開發(fā)臺風情景生成工具。(3)對空間尺度這一地理學難點問題進行探索性研究。在空間耦合模式的構建中,嘗試利用大尺度模擬結果作為中尺度模擬所需的邊界條件,以此體現(xiàn)兩種空間尺度臺風風暴潮災害風險研究的聯(lián)系。
[Abstract]:The coastal areas of eastern China are located in the northwest margin of the Pacific storm basin. Typhoon storm tide disasters are frequent, and the losses caused by the typhoon are increasing. As the national economic and financial center, Shanghai will cause huge economic and social loss once the typhoon storm tide occurs. In this paper, based on the historical typhoon storm tide disaster information, this paper uses the probability statistics method and the GIS spatial modeling method to construct the scenario based typhoon storm tide hazard risk assessment method system, and constructs the typhoon storm tide hazard assessment method system based on the situation. The spatial scale effect is also discussed, which has some reference significance for typhoon storm surge disaster risk research.
In the key project of National Natural Science Foundation, "empirical study on risk assessment of coastal urban natural disasters" (40730526), Shanghai education committee research and innovation project "Shanghai region typhoon storm tide rainstorm disaster chain comprehensive risk prevention research (13ZZ035)", Shanghai city science and technology star talent program "based on situational analysis of Shanghai City The study of natural disaster risk assessment and zoning (09QA1401800), the research and innovation fund of East China Normal University, funded by Shanghai as an example, selected the eastern coastal and Shanghai regions of China as two spatial scale empirical research areas, based on situational ideas and integrated transportation. Using the typhoon hazard scenario generating tool, the hydrologic numerical simulation software DHI MIKE21 and the ArcGIS tool, two kinds of space scale risk assessment work are carried out according to the disaster risk research system of "risk identification - risk assessment - vulnerability assessment - risk zoning and prevention", and the targeted risk prevention measures are put forward. The spatial scale effect of typhoon storm surge disaster risk research is discussed.
1, based on the scenario thought, using probability statistics and GIS space modeling method, we construct two kinds of hazard model of typhoon storm surge disaster in space scale, and put forward a complete set of risk assessment method system of typhoon storm tide disaster: (1) statistics and analysis of 2118 typhoons data, developing and establishing typhoon hazard scenario generating tool, and generating W20, W50, W 100, WN20, WN50, WN100, S20, S50, S100, a total of three types of typhoon scenario data. Take typhoon as the driving force, complete the typhoon storm surge hazard model under the DHI MIKE21 platform. (2) construction of typhoon risk scenario, typhoon driven Storm Surge Hazard simulation, Typhoon Storm Surge Hazard assessment based on the scenario based on the scenario based on the scenario. The risk assessment method system of typhoon storm surge disaster.
2, taking the coastal areas of eastern China as a large scale empirical research area, the risk assessment of typhoon storm surge disaster is carried out: (1) from the results of 9 scenarios of typhoon storm flood hazard assessment, the westward shifting scenario typhoon storm surge mainly affects two provinces of Guangdong and Hainan, and the Northwest migration mainly affects two provinces in Fujian and Zhejiang, and the main influence of the steering type The area is three regions in Zhejiang, Shanghai and Jiangsu; under the extreme typhoon (100 year encounter) scenario, the area of westward migration, northwest migration and steering type is 101241791523916km2. (2), respectively, to select 3 extreme risk scenarios, and to carry out the vulnerability assessment of typhoon storm surge disaster. From the results, we can see that the W100, WN100 situation affects the region, The vulnerability level of wind storm surge is 1 or 2, at the middle and low level; the vulnerability level of the region under the influence of S100 is high, the vulnerability grade of Shanghai region is 4. (3) based on the risk and vulnerability assessment of typhoon storm tide, and the risk zoning, the Leizhou Peninsula in Guangdong, the coastal area of Hainan Island, the Southeast Zhejiang province and the Hangzhou Bay, The southern part of Jiangsu province is the middle risk area and the east of Shanghai is the middle and high risk area. (4) according to the result of the risk zoning, the risk prevention measures of typhoon storm surge in the eastern coastal areas of China are put forward. That is, the risk prevention of large scale typhoon storm disaster should focus on the strategy and policy orientation, such as adjusting the social development model and promoting the economic development model. Economic and natural coordination and sustainable development.
3, taking the Shanghai area as the mesoscale empirical research area to carry out the risk assessment of typhoon storm surge disaster: (1) from the 3 scenarios (W100, WN100, S100) typhoon storm surge hazard assessment results, the main submergence areas in Shanghai are concentrated in southern Chongming Island, Changxing Island coast, west side of cross sand island, Baoshan District, Pudong New Area and Fengxian, the coast of Jinshan. Area; extreme typhoon scenario (S100), the submergence area of 351km2. (2) in vulnerability assessment, Shanghai high grade vulnerability mainly exists in Shanghai Chongming Island south bank, Changxing Island south bank, Baoshan coastal area, Pudong coastal area and southern Jinshan coast. The above area is mostly public management and public service land and transportation land. (3) The risk zoning shows that the most dangerous areas in Shanghai are the southern end of Chongming Island, the port land of Baoshan and Pudong and the southern end of the Jinshan. (4) according to the result of the risk zoning, the risk prevention should be directed by the risk management and the urban planning for the high-risk area, and the risk prevention should be based on the risk management and the urban planning as the guidance, the exhibition project and the biological prevention work, such as in Baoshan, Pudong, Jinshan and so on. Reinforcement of seawall and construction of stepped fortifications in high-risk areas.
4, based on the empirical study of the eastern coastal and Shanghai regions of China, the spatial scale effects of typhoon storm surge hazard risk are discussed: (1) the spatial scale effect of danger is mainly reflected in the scenario construction method, that is, the large scale selection of all 9 typhoon scenarios, the mesoscale only select 3 types that significantly affect the region, in addition, the large scale model opens the boundary. The mesoscale is much better than the mesoscale, and the mesoscale is better than the large scale in the accuracy of the simulation results. (2) the vulnerability has the spatial scale effect of the evaluation method and the result precision in two aspects. The large scale vulnerability assessment takes the first grade land type as the disaster bearing body, and the mesoscale vulnerability assessment selects the two grade land type as the disaster bearing body, so the mesoscale scale is the mesoscale. The result of typhoon storm surge vulnerability assessment is more accurate. (3) the spatial scale effect of Typhoon Storm Surge Hazard Zoning is manifested by the difference of data accuracy caused by the difference of data accuracy, that is, in large scale risk zoning, the middle and high risk areas in Shanghai region only appear in the Northeast yellow. In the vicinity of Pujiang entrance to the sea, the other places are mainly low risk areas, and the mesoscale risk zoning is more refined, the Chongming Island coast is mostly middle and low risk areas, the coastal areas of Baoshan District are mostly middle and high risk areas, the coastal areas of Pudong, Nanhui and Fengxian are basically middle and low risk areas, and the high risk areas are distributed in the southern coast of Chongming Island, the southern end of Changxing Island, Baoshan, PU. The east port land use and the south end of the Jinshan. (4) on the basis of the spatial scale effect analysis, the spatial scale coupling modes are constructed by spatial scaling method, including data coupling, method coupling and zoning coupling.
The characteristics and innovation of the paper: (1) emphasizing the scientificity and rationality of the disaster risk scenario: Based on the analysis of the typhoon data in the east of China for the last 50 years, this study makes a statistical analysis of the risk of typhoon disaster by using probability statistics method, thus establishing the dangerous situation of the sciences. (2) pay attention to the typhoon storm surge disaster. Research tools and methods of risk research: This paper builds a scientific research method system from three aspects of typhoon risk scenarios, typhoon driven storm surge hazard risk simulation, typhoon storm tide hazard risk assessment, and successful development of typhoon scenario generating tools. (3) exploring the difficult problems of spatial scale geography. In the construction of the spatial coupling model, we try to use the large scale simulation results as the boundary conditions for the mesoscale simulation, in order to reflect the relationship between the risk of typhoon storm disaster risk in the two spatial scales.

【學位授予單位】：華東師范大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：P731.23

【引證文獻】

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2 葉金玉;基于多維矩陣的臺風災害鏈綜合風險評估模型及其信息圖譜表達[D];福建師范大學;2015年

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1 林琛琛;不同海平面上升情景模擬下海岸帶災害損失評估[D];廈門大學;2014年

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