【摘要】：目前我們對(duì)系統(tǒng)安全性的研究主要是從系統(tǒng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的角度進(jìn)行的，而非從如何提高系統(tǒng)本質(zhì)安全方面加以考慮。但長(zhǎng)期的安全工作實(shí)踐證明，單純從風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的角度評(píng)價(jià)系統(tǒng)安全狀況，做出安全管理決策略顯不足，為研究城市燃?xì)夤芫W(wǎng)系統(tǒng)的本質(zhì)安全性，文章借鑒城市燃?xì)夤芫W(wǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo)體系及其評(píng)價(jià)方法，提出了適用于城市燃?xì)夤芫W(wǎng)系統(tǒng)的脆弱性概念及其脆弱性評(píng)價(jià)的研究思路。 本文根據(jù)城市燃?xì)夤芫W(wǎng)自身的行業(yè)特點(diǎn)與實(shí)地調(diào)研結(jié)果，界定了適合于城市燃?xì)夤芫W(wǎng)系統(tǒng)的脆弱性概念。從物理、結(jié)構(gòu)和社會(huì)功能三個(gè)角度出發(fā)，建立了一個(gè)由四個(gè)層次組成的城市燃?xì)夤芫W(wǎng)脆弱性指標(biāo)體系，且第二層包括“敏感性程度”和“應(yīng)對(duì)能力”兩個(gè)指標(biāo)，并通過(guò)借鑒相關(guān)方法和專家建議設(shè)定了5個(gè)等級(jí)，確定了各等級(jí)的范圍及輸出值。然后通過(guò)MATLAB R2010a，應(yīng)用BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的研究方法分別訓(xùn)練“敏感性程度”神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)和“應(yīng)對(duì)能力”神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)，并構(gòu)建脆弱性函數(shù)模型。最后將城市燃?xì)夤芫W(wǎng)脆弱性等級(jí)劃分為5個(gè)，用于評(píng)價(jià)城市燃?xì)夤芫W(wǎng)的脆弱性程度。 選取重慶市某城鎮(zhèn)的城市燃?xì)夤芫W(wǎng)系統(tǒng)進(jìn)行實(shí)例應(yīng)用，得出研究區(qū)域的燃?xì)夤芫W(wǎng)脆弱性等級(jí)值為0.81，被評(píng)定為“不脆弱”。通過(guò)模糊綜合評(píng)價(jià)法得出的脆弱性評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果、管網(wǎng)近10年的運(yùn)行狀況與前文得到的結(jié)果進(jìn)行對(duì)比驗(yàn)證，得出三者的結(jié)果吻合，說(shuō)明本文所建立的城市燃?xì)夤芫W(wǎng)系統(tǒng)脆弱性指標(biāo)體系和脆弱性評(píng)價(jià)模型具有一定得可靠性和適用性。 基于BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的評(píng)價(jià)模型能夠?qū)⒋嗳跣詷颖緮?shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行一系列的科學(xué)處理和計(jì)算，脆弱性評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果自動(dòng)輸出，具有較強(qiáng)的泛化能力，能夠較好的用于評(píng)價(jià)未知樣本，，為城市燃?xì)夤芫W(wǎng)脆弱性評(píng)價(jià)方法提供了一種新思路。
[Abstract]:At present, our research on system security is mainly from the point of view of system risk, not from how to improve the essential security of system. However, the long-term practice of safety work has proved that it is insufficient to evaluate the safety situation of the system from the risk perspective and make the safety management decision, in order to study the essential safety of the urban gas pipeline network system. Based on the evaluation index system of urban gas network risk and its evaluation method, this paper puts forward the concept of vulnerability and the research ideas of vulnerability evaluation for urban gas pipeline network system. According to the industry characteristics and field investigation results of urban gas pipeline network, this paper defines the concept of vulnerability suitable for urban gas pipeline network system. From the three aspects of physics, structure and social function, a vulnerability index system of urban gas pipeline network is established, which consists of four layers, and the second layer includes two indexes: "sensitivity" and "coping ability". By drawing lessons from relevant methods and experts' suggestions, five grades are set up, and the range and output value of each grade are determined. Then, through MATLAB R2010a, the method of BP neural network is applied to train the sensitivity degree neural network and the coping ability neural network, and the vulnerability function model is constructed. Finally, the vulnerability grade of urban gas pipeline network is divided into 5 grades, which is used to evaluate the vulnerability degree of urban gas pipeline network. The urban gas pipeline network system of a town in Chongqing is selected for an example, and the vulnerability grade of the gas pipeline network in the study area is 0.81, which is evaluated as "not fragile". Through the result of vulnerability evaluation obtained by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, the operation status of the pipe network in the past 10 years is compared with the results obtained in the previous paper, and the results are in agreement with each other. It shows that the vulnerability index system and vulnerability evaluation model of urban gas network system established in this paper have certain reliability and applicability. The evaluation model based on BP neural network can process and calculate the data of vulnerability samples scientifically and automatically output the results of vulnerability evaluation. It has a strong generalization ability and can be used to evaluate unknown samples. It provides a new idea for the vulnerability evaluation method of urban gas pipeline network.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：重慶大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：TU996;TP18

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