本文選題：老年人口 + 養(yǎng)老機(jī)構(gòu)�。� 參考：《復(fù)旦大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著老齡化進(jìn)程的加深和家庭養(yǎng)老能力的逐漸弱化,未來(lái)城市對(duì)機(jī)構(gòu)養(yǎng)老設(shè)施的需求將日益增加,面對(duì)當(dāng)前上海市機(jī)構(gòu)養(yǎng)老設(shè)施呈現(xiàn)出的總量不足和配置不合理等現(xiàn)象,本文在借鑒國(guó)內(nèi)外相關(guān)理論與實(shí)踐案例研究的基礎(chǔ)上,結(jié)合實(shí)地調(diào)研、Leslie矩陣模型等,預(yù)測(cè)了上海市老齡化高峰期對(duì)于養(yǎng)老機(jī)構(gòu)設(shè)施的各項(xiàng)需求。主要做了以下幾方面工作：首先,對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)外關(guān)于老年人群體和養(yǎng)老設(shè)施的相關(guān)理論,進(jìn)行了系統(tǒng)歸納和總結(jié),為后文的實(shí)證研究提供理論基礎(chǔ)。其次,根據(jù)上海市的老齡化特征和經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平選用日本和香港的養(yǎng)老機(jī)構(gòu)發(fā)展實(shí)踐進(jìn)行深入研究,總結(jié)其發(fā)展經(jīng)驗(yàn),為未來(lái)上海市養(yǎng)老機(jī)構(gòu)的進(jìn)一步發(fā)展提供參考。第三,通過(guò)對(duì)上海市老齡化現(xiàn)狀特征、家庭養(yǎng)老面臨的挑戰(zhàn)和養(yǎng)老設(shè)施配置、服務(wù)對(duì)象和從業(yè)人員情況的綜合分析,深入挖掘目前上海市養(yǎng)老機(jī)構(gòu)存在的問(wèn)題,以便更有針對(duì)性地進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)分析和提出解決對(duì)策。第四,基于Leslie矩陣模型,以“六普”數(shù)據(jù)中的上海市常住人口為基礎(chǔ)數(shù)據(jù),綜合考慮生育率和死亡率等因素,預(yù)測(cè)上海市各區(qū)縣未來(lái)各年齡段男性人口和女性人口的發(fā)展趨勢(shì),從而得出預(yù)測(cè)期內(nèi)各區(qū)縣各年份的老年人口數(shù),為下一步預(yù)測(cè)養(yǎng)老設(shè)施需求打下基礎(chǔ)。第五,預(yù)測(cè)上海市老齡化高峰期的養(yǎng)老設(shè)施需求。根據(jù)老年人口數(shù)量和上海市各區(qū)縣經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平,結(jié)合實(shí)地調(diào)研,分別從養(yǎng)老床位需求、各級(jí)養(yǎng)老機(jī)構(gòu)建筑面積需求和養(yǎng)老服務(wù)人員需求三個(gè)維度進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè),得到上海市各區(qū)縣老齡化高峰期對(duì)上述三項(xiàng)養(yǎng)老設(shè)施的需求值,以期為未來(lái)各區(qū)縣解決養(yǎng)老難題提供科學(xué)參考。最后針對(duì)研究過(guò)程中發(fā)現(xiàn)的問(wèn)題,對(duì)未來(lái)上海市機(jī)構(gòu)養(yǎng)老設(shè)施的發(fā)展提出相關(guān)對(duì)策建議。
[Abstract]:With the deepening of the aging process and the gradual weakening of the ability of the family to provide for the aged, the demand for institutional pension facilities in the future will increase day by day. In the face of the shortage of the total amount of institutional pension facilities and the unreasonable allocation of the facilities in Shanghai at present,On the basis of reference of relevant theories and practical case studies at home and abroad, this paper forecasts the demand for pension facilities in the peak period of aging in Shanghai based on the Leslie matrix model.The main work is as follows: first of all, the related theories about the elderly group and old-age facilities at home and abroad are systematically summarized and summarized, which provides the theoretical basis for the empirical research later.Secondly, according to the characteristics of aging and the level of economic development in Shanghai, Japan and Hong Kong are selected to carry out in-depth research on the development of pension institutions, summing up their development experience, to provide a reference for the further development of pension institutions in Shanghai in the future.Third, through the comprehensive analysis of the current situation of aging in Shanghai, the challenges faced by families and the allocation of pension facilities, service objects and employees, the problems existing in the current pension institutions in Shanghai are deeply explored.In order to forecast and analyze more pertinently and put forward the solution countermeasure.Fourthly, based on the Leslie matrix model, based on the data of resident population of Shanghai, and taking into account the factors such as fertility rate and mortality rate, this paper predicts the development trend of male and female population of different age groups in all districts and counties of Shanghai.Thus, the number of elderly population in different districts and counties during the forecast period is obtained, which lays the foundation for predicting the demand for old-age facilities in the next step.Fifth, forecast Shanghai aging peak pension facilities demand.According to the number of the elderly population and the level of economic development in the districts and counties of Shanghai, combined with the field investigation, this paper forecasts the demand for the bedspace for the aged, the building area demand of the pension institutions at all levels and the demand for the aged service personnel, respectively.In order to provide a scientific reference for solving the pension problem in the future, the demand for the above three pension facilities in the aging peak period of Shanghai districts and counties is obtained.Finally, in view of the problems found in the course of the research, this paper puts forward the relevant countermeasures and suggestions for the future development of institutional pension facilities in Shanghai.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：復(fù)旦大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：D669.6;TU984.14

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