【摘要】：我國經(jīng)濟(jì)已進(jìn)入新常態(tài)時期,近年來,政府積極推進(jìn)供給側(cè)改革,調(diào)結(jié)構(gòu)去產(chǎn)能政策不斷出臺,債券市場信用風(fēng)險正在加速釋放。在行業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)低迷的情況下,微觀層面企業(yè)現(xiàn)金流持續(xù)惡化,信用違約風(fēng)險不斷爆發(fā)。2016年前4個月,累計已有11家企業(yè)共計22只債券構(gòu)成實質(zhì)性違約,接近2015年企業(yè)債務(wù)違約事件的總和,市場波動的加劇和違約事件的發(fā)生給債券投資者帶來極大的風(fēng)險。南京雨潤食品有限公司(以下簡稱“南京雨潤”)曾經(jīng)是一家擁有強(qiáng)大品牌和市場影響力的屠宰及肉類加工民營企業(yè),但是其發(fā)行的企業(yè)債券在主營業(yè)績虧損、自有資金不足以及現(xiàn)金流量欠佳的情況下,違約風(fēng)險不斷升高。本文以此作為案例研究對象,探討和研究企業(yè)違約風(fēng)險形成的原因并總結(jié)出債務(wù)違約啟示。首先,對財務(wù)風(fēng)險理論進(jìn)行了概述,對財務(wù)風(fēng)險形成原因及風(fēng)險防范策略進(jìn)行了詳細(xì)闡述。其次,對南京雨潤基本情況進(jìn)行了簡單介紹,對債券違約過程進(jìn)行了全面回顧和梳理。然后,對南京雨潤公司行業(yè)狀況、企業(yè)運(yùn)營管理、企業(yè)財務(wù)狀況以及監(jiān)管層面等進(jìn)行了深入的分析,揭示債務(wù)違約的真實原因,并通過Z-score預(yù)警模型驗證了債務(wù)違約的結(jié)果。最后在此基礎(chǔ)上,作者得出了企業(yè)在戰(zhàn)略目標(biāo)選擇上應(yīng)該恰當(dāng),不能盲目擴(kuò)張,以規(guī)避投資風(fēng)險;企業(yè)必須具備應(yīng)對行業(yè)經(jīng)營風(fēng)險的能力及措施;同時,企業(yè)要加強(qiáng)內(nèi)部運(yùn)營管理,提高資金利用效率;以及完善我國債券市場準(zhǔn)入和監(jiān)管機(jī)制等違約啟示。作者也希望通過該案例研究,為同行業(yè)經(jīng)營者或債券投資者提供一定的借鑒和參考。
[Abstract]:China's economy has entered a new normal period, in recent years, the government actively promote supply-side reform, adjust the structure to the production capacity policy constantly issued, bond market credit risk is accelerating release. With the industry economy in the doldrums, the cash flow at the micro level continues to deteriorate and the risk of credit default continues to erupt. In the first four months of 2016, a total of 11 companies have accumulated 22 bonds that constitute material defaults. Near the sum of corporate debt default events in 2015, the aggravation of market volatility and default events bring great risk to bond investors. Nanjing Yurun Food Co., Ltd (hereinafter referred to as "Nanjing Yurun") was a strong brand and market influence slaughtering and meat processing private enterprises, but its corporate bonds issued in the main performance losses, The risk of default continues to rise when there is insufficient equity and poor cash flows. This article takes this as the case study object, discusses and studies the enterprise default risk formation reason and summarizes the debt default enlightenment. Firstly, the theory of financial risk is summarized, and the reasons for the formation of financial risk and the strategy of risk prevention are expounded in detail. Secondly, the basic situation of Nanjing Yurun is briefly introduced, and the bond default process is comprehensively reviewed and combed. Then, the paper makes a deep analysis on the industry situation, business operation management, financial situation and supervision level of Nanjing Yurun Company, reveals the real causes of debt default, and verifies the result of debt default through Z-score early-warning model. Finally, on this basis, the author draws the conclusion that the enterprise should be appropriate in the choice of strategic objectives, should not expand blindly to avoid investment risk, the enterprise must have the ability and measures to deal with the risk of industry management; at the same time, Enterprises should strengthen internal operation management, improve the efficiency of capital utilization, and improve bond market access and supervision mechanism in China. The author also hopes to provide some reference for the same industry managers or bond investors through the case study.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：深圳大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F426.82;F406.7

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