本文關(guān)鍵詞： 寶鋼 鋼鐵行業(yè) 現(xiàn)金流風險　出處：《石河子大學》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：在我國的經(jīng)濟建設(shè)和社會發(fā)展方面,鋼鐵行業(yè)一直占據(jù)著舉足輕重的地位,目前鋼鐵行業(yè)正處于產(chǎn)能過剩的“寒冬”時期,不少鋼企陷入全面虧損甚至破產(chǎn)的困境。對于資金投入高密集,現(xiàn)金流量大的鋼鐵企業(yè)來說,鋼鐵企業(yè)的輝煌可以由很多因素造就,但是造成鋼企破產(chǎn)的原因只有一個,那就是資金鏈的斷裂�？梢姮F(xiàn)金流對鋼鐵企業(yè)的重要性,鋼鐵企業(yè)可以沒有好的利潤,但是不能沒有正的現(xiàn)金流,否則企業(yè)將面臨現(xiàn)金流短缺所造成的財務(wù)困境,甚至會給企業(yè)帶來破產(chǎn)的風險,因此現(xiàn)金流的平穩(wěn)運轉(zhuǎn)對鋼鐵行業(yè)有著至關(guān)重要的作用。本文以我國鋼鐵行業(yè)的龍頭企業(yè)寶鋼股份有限公司作為案例公司,深入探討企業(yè)所存在的現(xiàn)金流風險并提出應(yīng)對措施。首先,對國內(nèi)外文獻進行梳理總結(jié),大部分學者認為現(xiàn)金流風險與企業(yè)價值有著密不可分的關(guān)系,對現(xiàn)金流風險的管理不善會給企業(yè)帶來不同程度的財務(wù)困境,從而影響到企業(yè)的價值,尤其針對已經(jīng)步入“寒冬”的鋼鐵企業(yè)。目前,能否對現(xiàn)金流風險的有效管理關(guān)乎著鋼鐵企業(yè)的生死存亡。本文希望通過研究,有助于深化對現(xiàn)金流風險管理的認識,為鋼鐵企業(yè)管理現(xiàn)金流風險提供一些參考。其次,總結(jié)本文所使用的相關(guān)概念和理論基礎(chǔ),其中包括對鋼鐵行業(yè)、現(xiàn)金流、現(xiàn)金流風險的概念界定以及對DSO理論和最佳現(xiàn)金持有量理論的闡述;再次,在對鋼鐵行業(yè)現(xiàn)金流風險誘因進行詳細分析后,選取25家A股上市鋼鐵企業(yè),運用財務(wù)指標法對鋼鐵行業(yè)現(xiàn)金流結(jié)構(gòu)和現(xiàn)金流各項能力進行分析;最后,對案例公司寶鋼股份進行介紹,運用財務(wù)指標法和比較分析法對案例公司的現(xiàn)金流結(jié)構(gòu)狀況、現(xiàn)金流各項能力以及導(dǎo)致現(xiàn)金流風險的誘因進行了詳細的分析,運用主成份分析法構(gòu)建寶鋼現(xiàn)金流風險預(yù)警系統(tǒng)。在前述分析的基礎(chǔ)上,總結(jié)本文的研究結(jié)論。在近期,由于匯率波動大,鋼鐵產(chǎn)品市場需求降低、寶鋼采取寬松信用政策和鋼鐵價格大幅下降等風險誘因的存在,寶鋼存在一定程度的現(xiàn)金流風險,其中包括現(xiàn)金流的短期償債能力不足,流動能力較差,成長能力不穩(wěn)定和收益能力降低等風險。最后,針對以上現(xiàn)金流風險問題提供相應(yīng)的應(yīng)對措施,主要措施如下。首先要成立專門的現(xiàn)金流風險管理機構(gòu),完善寶鋼審計體系的同時還要提升產(chǎn)品競爭力,這樣才能鞏固市場領(lǐng)先地位。其次,加強匯率風險管控;聚焦海外目標區(qū)域,提升海外市場競爭力。最后,建立完善現(xiàn)金流風險監(jiān)控體系。
[Abstract]:In China's economic construction and social development, the iron and steel industry has been occupying a pivotal position. At present, the steel industry is in the "cold winter" of overcapacity. For iron and steel enterprises with high capital investment and large cash flow, the glory of steel enterprises can be created by many factors, but there is only one reason for the failure of steel enterprises. That is the breakage of the capital chain. We can see the importance of cash flow to iron and steel enterprises. Iron and steel enterprises can have no good profits, but not without positive cash flows, otherwise the enterprises will face the financial difficulties caused by the shortage of cash flow. Even bring the risk of bankruptcy to the enterprise, so the smooth operation of cash flow plays a vital role in the steel industry. This paper takes Baosteel Co., Ltd, the leading enterprise of China's steel industry, as a case company. This paper discusses the cash flow risk in enterprises and puts forward some countermeasures. Firstly, the paper summarizes the literature at home and abroad, and most scholars think that cash flow risk is closely related to the enterprise value. The mismanagement of cash flow risk will bring different financial distress to the enterprise, which will affect the value of the enterprise, especially for the iron and steel enterprise that has entered the "cold winter". This paper hopes to deepen the understanding of cash flow risk management and provide some reference for iron and steel enterprises to manage cash flow risk. This paper summarizes the relevant concepts and theoretical basis used in this paper, including the definition of the steel industry, cash flow, cash flow risk, as well as the DSO theory and the best cash holding theory. After detailed analysis of cash flow risk inducement of iron and steel industry, 25 A-share listed iron and steel enterprises are selected to analyze the cash flow structure and cash flow ability of steel industry by using financial index method. This paper introduces the stock of Baosteel, and analyzes the cash flow structure, the ability of cash flow and the inducement of cash flow risk by using the method of financial index and comparative analysis. The cash flow risk early warning system of Baosteel is constructed by principal component analysis. On the basis of the above analysis, the conclusion of this paper is summarized. In the near future, due to the large exchange rate fluctuations, the market demand for iron and steel products is reduced. Baosteel adopts loose credit policy and the existence of risk incentives such as steel price drop, Baosteel has a certain degree of cash flow risk, including insufficient short-term cash flow solvency, poor liquidity, Finally, to address the above cash flow risk, the main measures are as follows. First, set up a special cash flow risk management organization. To improve the audit system of Baosteel, it is necessary to enhance the competitiveness of products so as to consolidate the market leading position. Secondly, we should strengthen exchange rate risk control, focus on overseas target areas, and enhance the competitiveness of overseas markets. Finally, Establish and improve the cash flow risk monitoring system.
【學位授予單位】：石河子大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F426.31;F406.7;F272.3

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