香港聯(lián)系匯率制度港元掛鉤人民幣合理性研究
發(fā)布時間：2019-07-09 17:31
【摘要】：中國香港是世界金融中心之一,實行聯(lián)系匯率制度至今已經(jīng)整整30年了。自從聯(lián)系匯率制度實施以來,香港金融管理局為了適應(yīng)全球經(jīng)濟形勢的變化而陸續(xù)推行的多項貨幣改革措施使其內(nèi)容逐步完善起來,聯(lián)系匯率制度的運作更加高效,抵御外來沖擊的能力更加強大,在三十年間經(jīng)受住了一系列風雨與考驗。然而,30年后的今天,香港所處的內(nèi)外環(huán)境與制度實施之初相比發(fā)生了巨大的變化,尤其香港與內(nèi)地的經(jīng)貿(mào)以及人員往來越來越緊密,經(jīng)濟融合程度越來越深,同時對內(nèi)地的依賴程度也越來越強,兩地經(jīng)濟的緊密性、互動性已經(jīng)超過了與美國之間的經(jīng)濟聯(lián)系。因此,如何審視與優(yōu)化香港的匯率制度,不僅對其經(jīng)濟的穩(wěn)定繁榮起著關(guān)鍵作用,而且對未來政策的制定與實施具有重要意義。同時,香港是中國經(jīng)濟國際化的橋頭堡,其匯率制度的改善與內(nèi)地的利益息息相關(guān),對于人民幣未來區(qū)域化、國際化發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略的實施同樣具有深刻影響。 香港的聯(lián)系匯率制度無疑是歷史的產(chǎn)物,是發(fā)揮過很大功效并處于接受市場檢驗階段的匯率制度創(chuàng)新。不可否認,聯(lián)系匯率制的實施為保證香港經(jīng)濟社會穩(wěn)定做出了重要貢獻,但是,香港在面對內(nèi)外部經(jīng)濟和金融發(fā)展中不斷提出的新問題時,需要在具體措施和技術(shù)層面上進行不斷地改進和完善,增強適應(yīng)性和靈活性,使其真正成為穩(wěn)定幣值、穩(wěn)定金融體系的核心與基石。所以,本文從回顧19世紀中葉以來香港貨幣匯率制度的發(fā)展歷史入手,在介紹香港聯(lián)系匯率制度內(nèi)涵及運作的基礎(chǔ)上,分析了香港實行聯(lián)系匯率制度的適宜性,著重深入研究港元掛鉤人民幣的合理性,但鑒于目前立刻將二者掛鉤的條件并不成熟,現(xiàn)階段需要繼續(xù)推動兩地的貿(mào)易交流及經(jīng)濟發(fā)展,努力營造一個適宜港元與人民幣掛鉤的宏觀經(jīng)濟環(huán)境。本文采用理論定性分析香港實行聯(lián)系匯率制度的適宜性,并利用相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)進行闡釋,深入分析了港元掛鉤人民幣的合理性、港元掛鉤人民幣的阻礙因素以及應(yīng)該努力營造一個適宜港元與人民幣掛鉤的宏觀經(jīng)濟環(huán)境。同時,又以計量手段進行了嚴格的實證定量分析。通過建立VAR模型應(yīng)用Johansen協(xié)整檢驗方法對其進行協(xié)整檢驗,從而表明香港與內(nèi)地的產(chǎn)出水平存在長期均衡關(guān)系,兩地經(jīng)濟周期在長期內(nèi)具有共同趨勢；又利用VAR模型提供的脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)等方法,實證分析香港和內(nèi)地各自CPI增長率的變動對其GDP的影響,從而觀察兩地的動態(tài)沖擊效應(yīng)是否對稱。本文還結(jié)合直觀的對比分析,首先比較了香港與美國、中國內(nèi)地的經(jīng)濟增長相關(guān)系數(shù),香港與美國的相關(guān)系數(shù)趨于下降,而與中國內(nèi)地的相關(guān)系數(shù)處于較高水平,對比分析表明了香港與美國的經(jīng)濟聯(lián)系程度總體呈下降趨勢,與內(nèi)地的經(jīng)濟聯(lián)系程度日益緊密。然后,對比香港與美國、中國內(nèi)地的消費物價指數(shù)增長率變化狀況,分析看出內(nèi)地物價的上升對香港物價變動的影響越來越大。 本文提出了港元與人民幣掛鉤具有合理性,并結(jié)合香港內(nèi)外環(huán)境特點及其變化,通過運用各種分析方法對其進行論證,最后提出應(yīng)該營造適宜港元掛鉤人民幣的經(jīng)濟環(huán)境。運用簡潔易懂的語言表述介紹香港貨幣匯率制度的發(fā)展歷史、聯(lián)系匯率制度的內(nèi)涵及運作,不做晦澀難懂的贅述,而為下文深入分析港元應(yīng)與人民幣掛鉤做好鋪墊。同時,結(jié)合香港內(nèi)部經(jīng)濟、外部環(huán)境及與內(nèi)地貿(mào)易交流等實際狀況對港元應(yīng)掛鉤人民幣進行深入分析,而不是單純地就聯(lián)系匯率制本身的優(yōu)劣進行判斷。文中就香港與中國內(nèi)地、美國的經(jīng)貿(mào)聯(lián)系等進行對比分析,使論證更具說服力。本文注重理論分析與實證分析相結(jié)合,理論分析具有邏輯辯證性,同時收集相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)進行清晰明了的數(shù)字佐證：實證分析中充分利用多元分析軟件,使研究更加科學精準。為了力使全篇沒有純文字敘述的蒼白無力之感,亦沒有單純實證分析的繁雜難解之困,而將多種分析方法結(jié)合運用,深入論證港元應(yīng)與人民幣掛鉤這一主題。在深入論證港元應(yīng)與人民幣掛鉤合理性的同時,也注重運用辯證思維闡述目前仍存在港元掛鉤人民幣的阻礙因素,符合實事求是原則,并提出應(yīng)該努力營造一個適宜港元與人民幣掛鉤的宏觀經(jīng)濟環(huán)境。
[Abstract]:Hong Kong, China, is one of the world's financial centres and has been in place for 30 years. Since the implementation of the linked exchange rate system, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority has gradually improved its contents in order to adapt to the changes of the global economic situation, and the linked exchange rate system is more efficient and more powerful to resist external shocks, A series of weather and test have been experienced in three decades. However, in the past 30 years, the internal and external environment of Hong Kong has changed greatly compared with the beginning of the system. In particular, the economic and trade ties between Hong Kong and the Mainland have become more and more closely, the degree of economic integration is becoming more and more deep, and the dependence on the Mainland is becoming more and more strong. The economic tightness of the two places has exceeded the economic ties with the United States. Therefore, how to look at and optimize the Hong Kong exchange rate system not only plays a key role in the stability and prosperity of its economy, but also has an important significance to the formulation and implementation of the future policy. At the same time, Hong Kong is the bridgehead of China's economic internationalization, and the improvement of its exchange rate system is closely related to the interests of the mainland, and has a profound impact on the future regionalization of the RMB and the implementation of the international development strategy. The exchange rate system in Hong Kong is no doubt the product of history. It is the exchange rate system which has a great effect and is in the stage of receiving the market inspection. New. There is no denying that the implementation of the linked exchange rate system has made an important contribution to ensuring the stability of Hong Kong's economic and social stability. However, in the face of the new problems of the internal and external economic and financial development, Hong Kong needs to make continuous improvement and completion at the specific measures and technical level The core and the foundation of a stable, stable financial system that is good, adaptive, and flexible. This paper, based on the review of the development history of Hong Kong's currency exchange rate system since the mid-19th century, analyzes the suitability of Hong Kong's linked exchange rate system based on the introduction of the connotation and operation of the Hong Kong currency exchange rate system. However, in view of the fact that the conditions for linking the two are not mature at this time, it is necessary to continue to promote the exchange of trade and economic development between the two places, and strive to create a macroeconomic ring that is suitable for linking the Hong Kong dollar and the RMB The paper uses the theory to make a qualitative analysis of the suitability of the exchange rate system in Hong Kong, and makes an analysis of the relevant data, and deeply analyses the reasonable value of the Hong Kong dollar peg. The impediments to the Hong Kong dollar peg to the currency and the efforts to create a macroeconomic ring that is appropriate for the Hong Kong dollar to be linked to the currency At the same time, the strict empirical and quantitative analysis is carried out by means of measurement. The co-integration test is carried out by using the Johansen co-integration test method to show the long-term equilibrium relationship between Hong Kong and the Mainland, and the economic cycle of the two places has a common trend in the long term, and the impulse response function provided by the VAR model The effect of the changes in the growth rate of the CPI in Hong Kong and the Mainland on the GDP of Hong Kong and the Mainland is analyzed by means of the method, so as to observe whether the dynamic impact effect of the two places is correct. The correlation coefficient between Hong Kong and the United States is lower, and the correlation coefficient between Hong Kong and the United States is lower, and the correlation coefficient between Hong Kong and the United States is at a higher level. The comparative analysis shows that the economic relation between Hong Kong and the United States is generally decreasing, and the degree of economic contact with the Mainland is becoming more and more tight. in contrast to that change in the growth rate of the consumer price index in Hong Kong and the United states and China, the analysis shows that the rise in prices in the mainland has an increasing impact on Hong Kong's price change This paper puts forward the rationality of the link between the Hong Kong dollar and the RMB, and combines the internal and external environmental characteristics and the changes of the Hong Kong dollar. The development history of the Hong Kong currency exchange rate system, the connotation and operation of the linked exchange rate system are introduced in a simple and understandable language statement, and the detailed description will not be made. In order to carry out an in-depth analysis below, the Hong Kong dollar should be linked with the RMB In that meantime, the Hong Kong dollar should be subject to an in-depth analysis of the Hong Kong dollar in the light of the real situation of Hong Kong's internal economy, the external environment and the exchange of trade with the mainland. The paper makes a comparative analysis of the economic and trade links between Hong Kong and the mainland and the United States, making the demonstration more This paper is based on the combination of the theoretical analysis and the empirical analysis, and the theoretical analysis has the logical and dialectical nature, and the relevant data is collected for clear and clear digital support: the multivariate analysis software is fully utilized in the empirical analysis, so that the research is more comprehensive. The study is accurate. In order to make the whole article have no sense of the pale and weak of the pure text, there is no complicated and difficult solution of the simple empirical analysis, and a variety of analytical methods are used in combination, and the in-depth demonstration that the Hong Kong dollar should be linked with the RMB On the subject, while in-depth demonstration that the Hong Kong dollar should be linked to the RMB, it also focuses on the use of dialectical thinking to explain the current obstacles to the Hong Kong dollar-linked RMB, which is in line with the principle of seeking truth from facts, and proposes that efforts should be made to create a macro-scale of the link between the Hong Kong dollar and the RMB
【學位授予單位】：東北財經(jīng)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F832.6
本文編號：2512314
[Abstract]:Hong Kong, China, is one of the world's financial centres and has been in place for 30 years. Since the implementation of the linked exchange rate system, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority has gradually improved its contents in order to adapt to the changes of the global economic situation, and the linked exchange rate system is more efficient and more powerful to resist external shocks, A series of weather and test have been experienced in three decades. However, in the past 30 years, the internal and external environment of Hong Kong has changed greatly compared with the beginning of the system. In particular, the economic and trade ties between Hong Kong and the Mainland have become more and more closely, the degree of economic integration is becoming more and more deep, and the dependence on the Mainland is becoming more and more strong. The economic tightness of the two places has exceeded the economic ties with the United States. Therefore, how to look at and optimize the Hong Kong exchange rate system not only plays a key role in the stability and prosperity of its economy, but also has an important significance to the formulation and implementation of the future policy. At the same time, Hong Kong is the bridgehead of China's economic internationalization, and the improvement of its exchange rate system is closely related to the interests of the mainland, and has a profound impact on the future regionalization of the RMB and the implementation of the international development strategy. The exchange rate system in Hong Kong is no doubt the product of history. It is the exchange rate system which has a great effect and is in the stage of receiving the market inspection. New. There is no denying that the implementation of the linked exchange rate system has made an important contribution to ensuring the stability of Hong Kong's economic and social stability. However, in the face of the new problems of the internal and external economic and financial development, Hong Kong needs to make continuous improvement and completion at the specific measures and technical level The core and the foundation of a stable, stable financial system that is good, adaptive, and flexible. This paper, based on the review of the development history of Hong Kong's currency exchange rate system since the mid-19th century, analyzes the suitability of Hong Kong's linked exchange rate system based on the introduction of the connotation and operation of the Hong Kong currency exchange rate system. However, in view of the fact that the conditions for linking the two are not mature at this time, it is necessary to continue to promote the exchange of trade and economic development between the two places, and strive to create a macroeconomic ring that is suitable for linking the Hong Kong dollar and the RMB The paper uses the theory to make a qualitative analysis of the suitability of the exchange rate system in Hong Kong, and makes an analysis of the relevant data, and deeply analyses the reasonable value of the Hong Kong dollar peg. The impediments to the Hong Kong dollar peg to the currency and the efforts to create a macroeconomic ring that is appropriate for the Hong Kong dollar to be linked to the currency At the same time, the strict empirical and quantitative analysis is carried out by means of measurement. The co-integration test is carried out by using the Johansen co-integration test method to show the long-term equilibrium relationship between Hong Kong and the Mainland, and the economic cycle of the two places has a common trend in the long term, and the impulse response function provided by the VAR model The effect of the changes in the growth rate of the CPI in Hong Kong and the Mainland on the GDP of Hong Kong and the Mainland is analyzed by means of the method, so as to observe whether the dynamic impact effect of the two places is correct. The correlation coefficient between Hong Kong and the United States is lower, and the correlation coefficient between Hong Kong and the United States is lower, and the correlation coefficient between Hong Kong and the United States is at a higher level. The comparative analysis shows that the economic relation between Hong Kong and the United States is generally decreasing, and the degree of economic contact with the Mainland is becoming more and more tight. in contrast to that change in the growth rate of the consumer price index in Hong Kong and the United states and China, the analysis shows that the rise in prices in the mainland has an increasing impact on Hong Kong's price change This paper puts forward the rationality of the link between the Hong Kong dollar and the RMB, and combines the internal and external environmental characteristics and the changes of the Hong Kong dollar. The development history of the Hong Kong currency exchange rate system, the connotation and operation of the linked exchange rate system are introduced in a simple and understandable language statement, and the detailed description will not be made. In order to carry out an in-depth analysis below, the Hong Kong dollar should be linked with the RMB In that meantime, the Hong Kong dollar should be subject to an in-depth analysis of the Hong Kong dollar in the light of the real situation of Hong Kong's internal economy, the external environment and the exchange of trade with the mainland. The paper makes a comparative analysis of the economic and trade links between Hong Kong and the mainland and the United States, making the demonstration more This paper is based on the combination of the theoretical analysis and the empirical analysis, and the theoretical analysis has the logical and dialectical nature, and the relevant data is collected for clear and clear digital support: the multivariate analysis software is fully utilized in the empirical analysis, so that the research is more comprehensive. The study is accurate. In order to make the whole article have no sense of the pale and weak of the pure text, there is no complicated and difficult solution of the simple empirical analysis, and a variety of analytical methods are used in combination, and the in-depth demonstration that the Hong Kong dollar should be linked with the RMB On the subject, while in-depth demonstration that the Hong Kong dollar should be linked to the RMB, it also focuses on the use of dialectical thinking to explain the current obstacles to the Hong Kong dollar-linked RMB, which is in line with the principle of seeking truth from facts, and proposes that efforts should be made to create a macro-scale of the link between the Hong Kong dollar and the RMB
【學位授予單位】：東北財經(jīng)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F832.6
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