【摘要】：本文收集了1921年發(fā)生在上海的“信交風(fēng)潮”中進(jìn)行過(guò)活躍交易的各主要交易所、信托公司及實(shí)體企業(yè)股票的日交易價(jià)格、交易量及其他相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù),試圖以各種股市泡沫形成及崩盤(pán)的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)理論來(lái)解釋當(dāng)時(shí)交易所股票的走勢(shì)。筆者發(fā)現(xiàn)“新興科技”所導(dǎo)致人們對(duì)于新興科技股基本價(jià)值高估的理論可以部分解釋為什么當(dāng)時(shí)交易所股票呈現(xiàn)顯著的泡沫狀走勢(shì),而傳統(tǒng)行業(yè)則股價(jià)波動(dòng)相對(duì)平穩(wěn)。證券物品在當(dāng)時(shí)的《申報(bào)》等媒體“故意”披露了相當(dāng)多的利好信息,而且其股價(jià)被一批市場(chǎng)操縱者搞多頭,從而使得散戶(hù)相信該所股票不同于其他交易所,可以從其股價(jià)上揚(yáng)走勢(shì)中獲利,即所謂的“理性人預(yù)期泡沫",直到1922年2月徹底崩盤(pán)。筆者通過(guò)股息、代用價(jià)格等對(duì)證券物品股票的內(nèi)在價(jià)值及泡沫大小的測(cè)度結(jié)果進(jìn)一步說(shuō)明了這一點(diǎn)。風(fēng)潮結(jié)束后投資者長(zhǎng)期“談股色變",企業(yè)股票淡出中國(guó)近代證券市場(chǎng),使得資本市場(chǎng)與實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)長(zhǎng)期處于幾乎完全疏離的不正常狀態(tài)。中國(guó)今天的證券市場(chǎng)與“信交風(fēng)潮”時(shí)期具有一定相似之處,需要在上市企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)揭示、投資者結(jié)構(gòu)、投資者自身觀念等方面進(jìn)行提升。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the daily trading price, trading volume and other relevant data of the stock of the major exchanges, trust companies and entities of the active trading in the "the trend of the letter of information" of Shanghai in 1921 are collected. The economic theory of the formation and collapse of stock markets in various stock markets is an attempt to explain the stock of the stock exchange at that time. The author finds that the theory that the "emerging technology" has led to the overestimation of the basic value of the new science and technology unit can partly explain why the stock of the stock exchange has a significant bubble-like trend, and the price fluctuation of the traditional industry is relatively stable. The media "deliberate", at that time, has disclosed a considerable amount of good information, and its share price is multi-headed by a group of market operators, allowing the individual to believe that the stock is different from other exchanges and can benefit from its stock-up trend, the so-called "rational person's expected foam", Until the end of February,1922. The author further explains the intrinsic value of the stock of the stock and the measure result of the foam size through the dividend and the alternative price. The long-term "On the color change of stock" of the investors after the trend has ended, and the stock of the enterprise is out of China's modern securities market, so that the capital market and the real economy are in the abnormal state almost completely separated from each other in a long time. The Chinese stock market today has some similarities with the "the trend of the letter of information" period, and needs to be promoted in the aspects of the risk disclosure, the investor structure and the investor's own concept.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：復(fù)旦大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F832.9

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