【摘要】：人口老齡化與社會(huì)基本養(yǎng)老保障不足已成為中國經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)發(fā)展的突出問題。如何設(shè)計(jì)和建立新型的養(yǎng)老保障方式，來補(bǔ)充現(xiàn)有養(yǎng)老保障體系的不足，是非常重要且有意義的。為應(yīng)對(duì)老齡化的挑戰(zhàn)，美國、加拿大等發(fā)達(dá)國家成功推出了“以房養(yǎng)老”的解決方案，建立了住房反抵押市場(chǎng)。一個(gè)自然的問題是：發(fā)展住房反抵押市場(chǎng)能否有助于解決中國的養(yǎng)老問題？從經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)角度看，這一問題即是：發(fā)展住房反抵押市場(chǎng)能否提高居民和社會(huì)的福利？ 結(jié)合當(dāng)前我國人口和經(jīng)濟(jì)的實(shí)際狀況，本文首先考察了住房反抵押市場(chǎng)的引入對(duì)退休居民的影響。在退休居民理性優(yōu)化其資產(chǎn)配置的假設(shè)下，本文的模擬結(jié)果顯示，由于住房反抵押貸款較高的交易成本，房屋價(jià)值低且現(xiàn)金資產(chǎn)少的居民不能從該貸款中獲得福利改善；對(duì)于適合參與該貸款的居民而言，選擇恰當(dāng)?shù)膮⑴c時(shí)機(jī)是最大限度發(fā)揮住房反抵押福利改善功能的關(guān)鍵，對(duì)房屋價(jià)值較高且現(xiàn)金資產(chǎn)較多的退休居民而言，選擇參與住房反抵押的最佳時(shí)機(jī)是在65歲以后。通過不同情形的比較，本文進(jìn)一步論證了住房反抵押的福利改善作用會(huì)隨著長(zhǎng)壽風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的加劇而增強(qiáng)，并隨著居民搬遷風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的加劇而減弱。這表明控制住房反抵押貸款的合約成本有助于其在不同情形下均能發(fā)揮福利改善功能。 其次，本文考察了在代際間資源配置達(dá)到均衡的狀態(tài)下，住房反抵押市場(chǎng)的引入對(duì)各代居民及社會(huì)總福利的影響。結(jié)果顯示引入住房反抵押市場(chǎng)后，住房反抵押貸款成為退休居民的重要收入來源，降低了其對(duì)社會(huì)養(yǎng)老保障給付的依賴，從而使得社會(huì)養(yǎng)老保障的最優(yōu)征稅率下降，因而減輕了青年居民的養(yǎng)老負(fù)擔(dān)，使居民一生的消費(fèi)更加平滑，進(jìn)而提高了總體的社會(huì)福利。我們進(jìn)一步指出，，均衡狀態(tài)下居民個(gè)體福利的改善依賴于居民的遺贈(zèng)動(dòng)機(jī)。通過不同情形的比較，本文模擬結(jié)果表明，住房反抵押的福利改善作用會(huì)隨著老齡化程度的加劇而增強(qiáng)�；谝陨习l(fā)現(xiàn)，本文認(rèn)為發(fā)展住房反抵押市場(chǎng)是對(duì)現(xiàn)有社會(huì)保障體系的有益補(bǔ)充。 最后，本文在總結(jié)國外住房反抵押市場(chǎng)運(yùn)營(yíng)經(jīng)驗(yàn)的基礎(chǔ)上，通過詳實(shí)的對(duì)比，結(jié)合理論分析結(jié)果，對(duì)我國如何發(fā)展住房反抵押市場(chǎng)提出了建議。
[Abstract]:The aging of population and the lack of basic old-age security have become a prominent problem in China's economic and social development. It is very important and meaningful to design and establish a new old-age security system to supplement the shortcomings of the existing old-age security system. In order to deal with the challenge of aging, developed countries such as the United States, Canada and other developed countries have successfully launched the solution of "housing for the aged" and established the housing counter-mortgage market. A natural question is: can the development of the housing counter-mortgage market help to solve the pension problem in China? From an economic point of view, the question is: can the development of housing counter-mortgage market improve the welfare of residents and society? Based on the current situation of China's population and economy, this paper first examines the impact of the introduction of housing counter-mortgage market on retired residents. Under the assumption that retired residents rationally optimize their asset allocation, the simulation results of this paper show that because of the high transaction cost of housing reverse mortgage, residents with low housing value and less cash assets can not get welfare improvement from the loan; For residents who are fit to participate in the loan, choosing the right time to participate is the key to maximizing the improvement function of housing countermortgage benefits, and for retired residents with higher housing value and more cash assets, The best time to take part in a home backmortgage is after 65. Through the comparison of different situations, this paper further demonstrates that the welfare improvement effect of housing countermortgage will increase with the increase of longevity risk, and weaken with the aggravation of residents' relocation risk. This shows that controlling the contractual cost of housing reverse mortgages can help them perform welfare improvement functions in different situations. Secondly, this paper investigates the impact of the introduction of housing reverse mortgage market on the residents and social welfare of different generations under the condition that the resource allocation among generations is balanced. The results show that after the introduction of housing counter-mortgage market, housing counter-mortgage loan has become an important source of income for retired residents, reducing their dependence on social old-age security payments, and thus making the optimal tax rate of social old-age security fall. Thus, it lightens the burden of old-age care of young residents, makes the consumption of residents smoother, and then improves the overall social welfare. We further point out that the improvement of the residents' individual welfare under the equilibrium state depends on the residents' bequest motivation. Through the comparison of different situations, the simulation results show that the welfare improvement of housing reverse mortgage will be enhanced with the increase of aging degree. Based on the above findings, this paper believes that the development of housing counter-mortgage market is a useful supplement to the existing social security system. Finally, on the basis of summarizing the operation experience of foreign housing counter-mortgage market, this paper puts forward some suggestions on how to develop the housing counter-mortgage market in China through detailed comparison and theoretical analysis.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：清華大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：D632.1;F832.45

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