人民幣匯率變動對中美貿(mào)易失衡影響問題的實證研究
發(fā)布時間：2019-01-29 04:43
【摘要】：近年來，，中美貿(mào)易失衡問題已成為影響中美關系發(fā)展最主要的因素之一，而人民幣匯率是否作為中美貿(mào)易失衡的主要原因則更為學術界關注。迫于美國等發(fā)達國家的政治壓力和經(jīng)濟手段，中國人民幣匯率已持續(xù)8年連續(xù)升值，這種提供穩(wěn)定升值預期的匯率變動是否真正能夠解決中美貿(mào)易失衡問題更成為現(xiàn)階段經(jīng)濟學研究中最受關注的問題。因此，對人民幣匯率升值是否真正能夠緩解中美貿(mào)易失衡問題，以及人民幣升值對中美兩國經(jīng)濟的實質(zhì)性影響進行研究具有重要的現(xiàn)實和理論意義。 為從更深層次揭示人民幣匯率升值與中美貿(mào)易以及中美經(jīng)濟之間的關系，本文從以下幾個方面對該問題進行實證研究：其一，美國對華政治態(tài)度變化是否真正影響人民幣匯率制度改革或?qū)θ嗣駧派凳欠翊嬖谝蚬P系。若存在必然聯(lián)系甚至存在因果則證明人民幣匯率對中美經(jīng)濟關系至關重要，已在某種程度上成為解決中美關系的橋梁；其二，人民幣升值是否能夠緩解或者解決中美貿(mào)易失衡問題。貿(mào)易失衡不利于任何國家的長久發(fā)展，必將損害國家利益。若人民幣升值能夠緩解或解決中美貿(mào)易失衡問題則應選擇合理的升值途徑；其三，人民幣升值是否影響中國對外貿(mào)易發(fā)展。對外貿(mào)易是拉動中國經(jīng)濟增長的主要動力，選擇合理的匯率升值方式對中國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展關系重大；其四，人民幣升值與美國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展之間的關系。盡管中美貿(mào)易相互依存度較高，但人民幣匯率變動是否對美國實體經(jīng)濟產(chǎn)生直接影響值得商榷。經(jīng)過嚴謹?shù)囊?guī)范研究和實證分析，本文發(fā)現(xiàn)美國長期通過政治壓力影響中國匯率，人民幣匯率已經(jīng)成為中美雙邊關系中重要談判內(nèi)容之一，但中美雙邊貿(mào)易不符合馬歇爾勒納條件，人民幣升值在解決中美貿(mào)易失衡問題方面作用不顯著。同時，中國作為貿(mào)易大國，人民幣升值不利于中國對外貿(mào)易的長期發(fā)展，而且以美國勞動力就業(yè)為例進行分析后發(fā)現(xiàn)，人民幣升值也不能解決美國就業(yè)問題。 中美貿(mào)易失衡有自身的內(nèi)部原因，是國際產(chǎn)業(yè)分工和美國實行選擇性對外貿(mào)易政策的結(jié)果。從長遠看，人民幣市場化改革是必然趨勢，但應該綜合考慮中國貿(mào)易環(huán)境和金融環(huán)境兩方面內(nèi)容，根據(jù)不同發(fā)展情況選擇最適合中國的市場化改革道路。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the issue of Sino-US trade imbalance has become one of the most important factors affecting the development of Sino-US relations, and whether the RMB exchange rate is the main cause of Sino-US trade imbalance is more concerned by academic circles. Under the political pressure and economic means of the United States and other developed countries, China's RMB exchange rate has been continuously appreciated for eight consecutive years. Whether this exchange rate change, which provides a stable appreciation expectation, can really solve the trade imbalance between China and the United States has become the most concerned issue in the current economic research. Therefore, it is of great practical and theoretical significance to study whether the appreciation of RMB exchange rate can really alleviate the trade imbalance between China and the United States, and whether the real impact of RMB appreciation on the economies of China and the United States. In order to reveal the relationship between RMB exchange rate appreciation, Sino-US trade and Sino-US economy from a deeper level, this paper makes an empirical study on this issue from the following aspects: first, Whether the change of American political attitude towards China really affects the reform of RMB exchange rate regime or whether there is a causal relationship to RMB appreciation. If there is an inevitable connection or even cause and effect, it proves that the RMB exchange rate is very important to Sino-US economic relations, and has become a bridge to solve Sino-US relations to some extent. Second, whether the appreciation of the RMB can alleviate or solve the trade imbalance between China and the United States. Trade imbalance is not conducive to the long-term development of any country, and will certainly harm the national interests. If the appreciation of RMB can alleviate or solve the trade imbalance between China and the United States, it should choose a reasonable way of appreciation. Thirdly, whether the appreciation of RMB will affect the development of China's foreign trade. Foreign trade is the main driving force to stimulate China's economic growth, and choosing a reasonable way of exchange rate appreciation is of great importance to China's economic development. Fourth, the relationship between the appreciation of RMB and the economic development of the United States. Despite the high degree of trade interdependence between China and the United States, it is questionable whether the yuan's exchange rate movements have a direct impact on the U.S. real economy. Through rigorous normative research and empirical analysis, this paper finds that the United States has influenced China's exchange rate through political pressure for a long time, and the RMB exchange rate has become an important part of the negotiations between China and the United States. However, bilateral trade between China and the United States does not conform to Marshall Lerner's terms, and the appreciation of the yuan has not played a significant role in resolving the trade imbalance between China and the United States. At the same time, as a big trading country, the appreciation of RMB is not conducive to the long-term development of China's foreign trade. The trade imbalance between China and the United States has its own internal causes, which is the result of the division of international industries and the selective foreign trade policy of the United States. In the long run, the market-oriented reform of RMB is an inevitable trend, but we should consider the two aspects of China's trade environment and financial environment, and choose the most suitable market-oriented reform road according to different development conditions.
【學位授予單位】：吉林大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F752.7;F757.12;F832.6
本文編號：2417656
[Abstract]:In recent years, the issue of Sino-US trade imbalance has become one of the most important factors affecting the development of Sino-US relations, and whether the RMB exchange rate is the main cause of Sino-US trade imbalance is more concerned by academic circles. Under the political pressure and economic means of the United States and other developed countries, China's RMB exchange rate has been continuously appreciated for eight consecutive years. Whether this exchange rate change, which provides a stable appreciation expectation, can really solve the trade imbalance between China and the United States has become the most concerned issue in the current economic research. Therefore, it is of great practical and theoretical significance to study whether the appreciation of RMB exchange rate can really alleviate the trade imbalance between China and the United States, and whether the real impact of RMB appreciation on the economies of China and the United States. In order to reveal the relationship between RMB exchange rate appreciation, Sino-US trade and Sino-US economy from a deeper level, this paper makes an empirical study on this issue from the following aspects: first, Whether the change of American political attitude towards China really affects the reform of RMB exchange rate regime or whether there is a causal relationship to RMB appreciation. If there is an inevitable connection or even cause and effect, it proves that the RMB exchange rate is very important to Sino-US economic relations, and has become a bridge to solve Sino-US relations to some extent. Second, whether the appreciation of the RMB can alleviate or solve the trade imbalance between China and the United States. Trade imbalance is not conducive to the long-term development of any country, and will certainly harm the national interests. If the appreciation of RMB can alleviate or solve the trade imbalance between China and the United States, it should choose a reasonable way of appreciation. Thirdly, whether the appreciation of RMB will affect the development of China's foreign trade. Foreign trade is the main driving force to stimulate China's economic growth, and choosing a reasonable way of exchange rate appreciation is of great importance to China's economic development. Fourth, the relationship between the appreciation of RMB and the economic development of the United States. Despite the high degree of trade interdependence between China and the United States, it is questionable whether the yuan's exchange rate movements have a direct impact on the U.S. real economy. Through rigorous normative research and empirical analysis, this paper finds that the United States has influenced China's exchange rate through political pressure for a long time, and the RMB exchange rate has become an important part of the negotiations between China and the United States. However, bilateral trade between China and the United States does not conform to Marshall Lerner's terms, and the appreciation of the yuan has not played a significant role in resolving the trade imbalance between China and the United States. At the same time, as a big trading country, the appreciation of RMB is not conducive to the long-term development of China's foreign trade. The trade imbalance between China and the United States has its own internal causes, which is the result of the division of international industries and the selective foreign trade policy of the United States. In the long run, the market-oriented reform of RMB is an inevitable trend, but we should consider the two aspects of China's trade environment and financial environment, and choose the most suitable market-oriented reform road according to different development conditions.
【學位授予單位】：吉林大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F752.7;F757.12;F832.6
【參考文獻】
相關期刊論文 前10條
1 宿玉海;黃鑫;;人民幣名義匯率與中國對歐元區(qū)國家出口的關系[J];財經(jīng)科學;2006年04期
2 鄭愷;;實際匯率波動對我國出口的影響——基于SITC比較[J];財貿(mào)經(jīng)濟;2006年09期
3 王達;項衛(wèi)星;劉曉鑫;;論全球金融危機下的中美經(jīng)濟關系失衡及其調(diào)整[J];東北亞論壇;2011年01期
4 黃安仲;;人民幣升值能改善日美與中國的貿(mào)易狀況嗎?——基于匯率經(jīng)過效應的研究[J];當代財經(jīng);2011年07期
5 陳平,熊欣;進口國匯率波動影響中國出口的實證分析[J];國際金融研究;2002年06期
6 歐元明 ,王少平;匯率與中國對外出口關系的實證研究[J];國際貿(mào)易問題;2005年09期
7 王勝;陳繼勇;吳宏;;中美貿(mào)易順差與人民幣匯率關系的實證分析[J];國際貿(mào)易問題;2007年05期
8 劉林奇;;人民幣對美元實際匯率與中美貿(mào)易凈出口關系的實證研究[J];國際貿(mào)易問題;2007年11期
9 張慶君;;人民幣升值能否促進我國出口商品結(jié)構(gòu)的改善[J];國際貿(mào)易問題;2010年06期
10 于友偉;;匯率變化與貿(mào)易平衡——基于中國與亞太主要貿(mào)易體的研究[J];國際貿(mào)易問題;2011年07期
本文編號：2417656
本文鏈接：http://sikaile.net/guanlilunwen/bankxd/2417656.html
最近更新
教材專著
