【摘要】：外匯儲(chǔ)備規(guī)模過大一直是影響我國宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行的一個(gè)隱患。特別是當(dāng)前國際經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢復(fù)雜多變,歐美各國經(jīng)濟(jì)經(jīng)歷了一個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)周期的谷底后,從蕭條開始逐漸復(fù)蘇。以促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)為目的,各國紛紛采取寬松的貨幣環(huán)境,向市場注入大量的流動(dòng)資金。我國經(jīng)歷了次貸危機(jī)和歐債危機(jī)的考驗(yàn)后,國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)健發(fā)展,產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級(jí)逐步展開,巨大的國內(nèi)需求被逐漸開發(fā)出來,良好的經(jīng)濟(jì)勢頭必然會(huì)吸引外國投資者和國際投機(jī)資本的進(jìn)入。外匯流入雖然會(huì)促進(jìn)我國外向型企業(yè)的發(fā)展,提供更多的就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì),但是外匯流入會(huì)增大外匯占款的規(guī)模,向貨幣市場注入過量貨幣資金,加大了我國輸入型通貨膨脹和投機(jī)性金融市場資產(chǎn)泡沫的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。 在我國現(xiàn)行管理浮動(dòng)匯率制度和國際收支資本項(xiàng)目管制下,外匯持續(xù)流入通過銀行系統(tǒng)的結(jié)售匯會(huì)形成龐大的外匯占款,所以,如何加強(qiáng)外匯儲(chǔ)備的規(guī)模管理,沖銷過多的外匯占款和針對(duì)外匯占款對(duì)貨幣供給的流通渠道制定更加有效的金融監(jiān)管政策具有很強(qiáng)的現(xiàn)實(shí)經(jīng)濟(jì)意義。文章通過從我國貨幣內(nèi)生性理論研究入手,分析了當(dāng)前經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢下,外匯占款對(duì)央行投放基礎(chǔ)貨幣和貨幣流通時(shí)產(chǎn)生的貨幣乘數(shù)效應(yīng)的影響機(jī)制,通過數(shù)據(jù)比例比較,認(rèn)為外匯占款會(huì)增強(qiáng)貨幣供給的內(nèi)生性。然后結(jié)合最新經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù),構(gòu)建包括外匯占款在內(nèi)的影響貨幣供應(yīng)量各因素的實(shí)證模型,來討論外匯占款和M2的相關(guān)性以及外匯占款對(duì)M2的變動(dòng)效應(yīng)。再來通過分析比較現(xiàn)行外匯沖銷干預(yù)的實(shí)踐情況和操作工具的優(yōu)缺點(diǎn),討論我國的外匯沖銷操作的有效性和持續(xù)性。最后結(jié)合我國具體情況,提出了改善我國外匯占款沖銷和外匯儲(chǔ)備管理的政策建議。
[Abstract]:The excessive scale of foreign exchange reserves has always been a hidden trouble affecting the macro-economic operation of our country. Especially, the current international economic situation is complex and changeable. After a trough of economic cycle, European and American economies gradually recover from depression. In order to promote the economy, countries have adopted a loose monetary environment, injecting a lot of liquidity into the market. After the test of the subprime mortgage crisis and the European debt crisis, the domestic economy has developed steadily, the industrial structure has been upgraded and the huge domestic demand has been gradually developed. Good economic momentum is bound to attract foreign investors and international speculative capital. Although the inflow of foreign exchange will promote the development of export-oriented enterprises in China and provide more employment opportunities, the inflow of foreign exchange will increase the scale of foreign exchange holdings and inject excessive money funds into the money market. It increases the risk of imported inflation and speculative financial market asset bubble. Under the current management of floating exchange rate system and the capital account control of balance of payments in China, the continuous inflow of foreign exchange through the settlement and sale of foreign exchange in the banking system will result in a large amount of foreign exchange. Therefore, how to strengthen the management of the scale of foreign exchange reserves, It is of great practical and economic significance to sterilize excessive foreign exchange and to formulate more effective financial supervision policies for the circulation channels of money supply. Based on the theoretical study of monetary endogeneity in China, this paper analyzes the influence mechanism of foreign exchange occupying on the monetary multiplier effect when the central bank puts in the basic money and currency circulation under the current economic situation, and compares the ratio of the data. It is believed that foreign exchange will increase the endogenous nature of the money supply. Based on the latest economic data, this paper constructs an empirical model of the factors affecting the money supply, including foreign exchange, to discuss the correlation between foreign exchange and M2, as well as the effect of foreign exchange on M2. Then, by analyzing and comparing the practice of the current foreign exchange sterilisation intervention and the advantages and disadvantages of the operational tools, this paper discusses the effectiveness and sustainability of the foreign exchange sterilisation operation in China. Finally, according to the concrete situation of our country, some suggestions are put forward to improve the sterilisation of foreign exchange and the management of foreign exchange reserve.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：天津財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F832.6;F822.2

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