開放經(jīng)濟(jì)下中國貨幣政策目標(biāo)制選擇的實(shí)證研究
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-11-02 12:12
【摘要】：全球經(jīng)濟(jì)與金融一體化加速了各國資本的國際流動(dòng)、市場(chǎng)的開放,進(jìn)一步從微觀上改進(jìn)了全球范圍內(nèi)的資源優(yōu)化配置。但是貨幣政策實(shí)施所依賴的整個(gè)金融運(yùn)行環(huán)境的變化,因此從宏觀角度上為政府制定整體經(jīng)濟(jì)政策帶來了一定的難度。在制定貨幣政策的過程中,各國政府不僅要考慮到本國國內(nèi)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行狀況,還要關(guān)注國際資本流動(dòng)、世界經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)等外部環(huán)境因素。于此同時(shí),國際資本流動(dòng)和世界經(jīng)濟(jì)形式也會(huì)對(duì)本國貨幣政策的改變做出反應(yīng),進(jìn)而改變貨幣政策在國內(nèi)的作用效果。在當(dāng)前開放經(jīng)濟(jì)條件下,傳統(tǒng)的貨幣政策工具已不能適應(yīng)新的金融環(huán)境,貨幣政策目標(biāo)制的選擇需要適應(yīng)新的變化。進(jìn)入新世紀(jì)以來,我國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展一直面臨十分復(fù)雜的內(nèi)外部環(huán)境,具體表現(xiàn)為人民幣升值壓力、對(duì)外貿(mào)易摩擦加劇、資產(chǎn)價(jià)格膨脹等多種矛盾匯聚。盡管,我國央行出臺(tái)一系列貨幣政策,但是效果卻并不明顯。因而,我國貨幣政策的有效性、貨幣政策目標(biāo)框架選擇等問題值得深入研究。 概括地說,本文是在經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)研究的基本框架下,在廣泛收集數(shù)據(jù)的基礎(chǔ)上,特別注重方法的運(yùn)用與問題的研究相結(jié)合,從中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的基本問題出發(fā),對(duì)我國貨幣政策目標(biāo)制的選擇問題進(jìn)行研究。全文共分為七章,具體內(nèi)容如下： 第一章：緒論。在此部分,將對(duì)全文做出概括性介紹,并分別就三個(gè)方面的內(nèi)容進(jìn)行了闡述。包括研究意義和研究背景,研究方法和技術(shù)路線,創(chuàng)新點(diǎn)和研究內(nèi)容。 第二章：貨幣政策的相關(guān)理論概述。本章首先對(duì)貨幣政策的相關(guān)概念進(jìn)行了界定和辨析,重點(diǎn)介紹了與本文研究密切相關(guān)的貨幣政策、中介目標(biāo)、最終目標(biāo)、最終目標(biāo)規(guī)則與名義錨等概念；其次,介紹了貨幣政策中介目標(biāo)選擇的相關(guān)理論,主要包括貨幣主義學(xué)派、凱恩斯主義學(xué)派、后凱恩斯主義學(xué)派等理論；再次,介紹了貨幣政策最終目標(biāo)的相關(guān)理論,包括貨幣政策的時(shí)間不一致理論、理性預(yù)期理論等,并分析規(guī)則與相機(jī)抉擇的貨幣政策選擇原則；最后,回顧了我國貨幣政策的演變歷程。 第三章：開放經(jīng)濟(jì)下我國貨幣政策有效性分析。在對(duì)貨幣政策有效性進(jìn)行理論分析的基礎(chǔ)上,從宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)目標(biāo)實(shí)現(xiàn)和貨幣政策工具選擇兩個(gè)角度出發(fā),基于我國貨幣政策的歷史演變,采用方差分解和基于VAR模型的脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)等計(jì)量方法,利用實(shí)證模型評(píng)價(jià)和分析我國貨幣政策自亞洲金融危機(jī)依賴的有效性問題。在這一章,本文通過對(duì)金融危機(jī)以來,我國貨幣政策調(diào)控經(jīng)歷的“防通縮”、“控溫降速防通脹”和“保增長、防通縮與通脹”三個(gè)階段分別建立實(shí)證模型以及對(duì)整體樣本期建立實(shí)證模型,實(shí)證比較了不同經(jīng)濟(jì)階段下我國貨幣政策的有效性問題, 第四章：開放經(jīng)濟(jì)下我國貨幣供應(yīng)量中介目標(biāo)的選擇。本章基于貨幣政策中介目標(biāo)選擇的三個(gè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn),并結(jié)合我國目前的經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì),分別從相關(guān)性、可測(cè)性、可控性和傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制效果四個(gè)方面對(duì)我國貨幣供應(yīng)量作為貨幣政策中介指標(biāo)的可行性進(jìn)行了理論與實(shí)證分析,得出相應(yīng)的研究結(jié)論。 第五章：開放經(jīng)濟(jì)下我國利率中介目標(biāo)的選擇。本章從理論與實(shí)證兩個(gè)方面論證了Taylor規(guī)則及其擴(kuò)展形式是否能夠很好地模擬我國的貨幣政策變化趨勢(shì),進(jìn)一步具體分析了利率能否作為評(píng)價(jià)貨幣政策有效性的中介目標(biāo),并在實(shí)證結(jié)論的基礎(chǔ)上分析了Taylor規(guī)則在中國具體實(shí)施過程中所面臨的一些問題。本章的研究結(jié)論為利率規(guī)則是貨幣當(dāng)局對(duì)利率政策進(jìn)行調(diào)控時(shí)所依據(jù)的政策規(guī)則；原始的Taylor規(guī)則并不適用于我國,擴(kuò)展的Taylor規(guī)則對(duì)我國更加適用。 第六章：開放經(jīng)濟(jì)下我國貨幣政策目標(biāo)制的選擇。本章首先通過對(duì)我國現(xiàn)行的匯率目標(biāo)制、貨幣目標(biāo)制與通貨膨脹目標(biāo)制的比較分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)通貨膨脹目標(biāo)制能很好的彌補(bǔ)我國現(xiàn)行目標(biāo)制中存在的缺點(diǎn)。然后,從制度、經(jīng)濟(jì)、技術(shù)、市場(chǎng)四個(gè)角度分析了通貨膨脹目標(biāo)制在我國實(shí)行所需滿足的條件。最后,從央行貨幣政策損失函數(shù)最小化的角度出發(fā)建立理論模型并進(jìn)行了實(shí)證研究,研究表明,“通貨膨脹目標(biāo)制”下的通脹偏差要相對(duì)小于“相機(jī)抉擇機(jī)制”情況下的通脹偏差,因而,我國可以把通貨膨脹目標(biāo)制作為未來的貨幣政策取向。 第七章：匯總了本文的總體研究結(jié)論,給出了相應(yīng)的政策建議,并提出未來研究展望。 本文在以下幾個(gè)方面做出創(chuàng)新性的研究：第一,不僅評(píng)價(jià)了傳統(tǒng)研究下貨幣政策制定實(shí)施的目標(biāo)有效性,而且還分析了到貨幣政策在調(diào)控工具選擇方面的有效性。將整個(gè)樣本期劃分為不同的階段進(jìn)行研究,考察不同時(shí)期下貨幣政策的有效性。第二,國內(nèi)很多學(xué)者在研究中并沒有清晰區(qū)分貨幣政策中介目標(biāo)與最終目標(biāo)之間的關(guān)系,本文在研究過程中明確對(duì)二者加以區(qū)分。第三,在我國貨幣供應(yīng)量中介目標(biāo)可行性、影響因素及適用條件進(jìn)行實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)的基礎(chǔ)上,對(duì)利率中介目標(biāo)進(jìn)行了深入研究。通過構(gòu)建一個(gè)包含主要資產(chǎn)和金融信息的金融狀況指數(shù)納入Taylor規(guī)則中進(jìn)行研究,同時(shí)也對(duì)其他所有可能的Taylor規(guī)則進(jìn)行對(duì)比分析,證明了本文的研究模型是適用和可靠的。第四,通過對(duì)我國現(xiàn)行目標(biāo)制與靈活的通貨膨脹目標(biāo)制的對(duì)比分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)靈活的通貨膨脹目標(biāo)制是我國貨幣政策目標(biāo)制的一個(gè)可行選擇。通過數(shù)理推導(dǎo)得出靈活通貨膨脹目標(biāo)制下的最優(yōu)貨幣規(guī)則,并應(yīng)用中國的實(shí)際數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)。但絕大多數(shù)的研究中僅僅從實(shí)證的角度加以說明,沒有明確的理論基礎(chǔ)。
[Abstract]:The global economic and financial integration has accelerated the international flow of national capital, the opening of the market, and further improved the allocation of resources in the global scope. But the whole financial operation environment depends on the monetary policy implementation, so it brings some difficulty to the government's overall economic policy from a macro perspective. In the process of formulating monetary policy, governments should not only take into account the domestic macro-economic health situation, but also pay attention to external factors such as international capital flow and world economic fluctuation. At the same time, the international capital flow and the world economic form will respond to the change of national currency policy and change the effect of monetary policy in China. Under the current open economy condition, the traditional monetary policy tool cannot adapt to the new financial environment, and the choice of the monetary policy target system needs to adapt to the new change. Since entering the new century, our country's economic development has been confronted with a very complicated internal and external environment, which is embodied in many contradictions, such as RMB appreciation pressure, aggravated foreign trade friction, asset price expansion and so on. Although the central bank of china has introduced a series of monetary policies, the effect is not obvious. Therefore, the effectiveness of monetary policy in our country, the choice of goal frame of monetary policy and so on deserve further study. In summary, under the basic framework of economic research, this paper, on the basis of extensive data collection, pays special attention to the combination of the application of the method and the research of the problem, and starts with the basic problem of China's economic growth, and carries out the choice of the target system of monetary policy in China. The full text is divided into seven chapters and specific contents. The following are the following: Chapter: Introduction. In this section, a general introduction of the whole text will be made, and the contents of three aspects are discussed separately. It is set forth, including research significance and research background, research methods and technical route, innovation point. Chapter II: Monetary Policy This chapter defines and analyzes the relevant concepts of monetary policy, and focuses on the concepts of monetary policy, intermediary target, ultimate goal, final objective rule and nominal anchor, which are closely related to the research of this paper. Secondly, the paper introduces the intermediary of monetary policy. The relevant theories of the selection of monetary policy mainly include the theory of monetary policy, Keynesian school and post-Keynesian school; once again, the relevant theories of the ultimate goal of monetary policy, including the time inconsistency theory of monetary policy, are introduced. The principle of monetary policy choice between the rules and the camera choice is analyzed and the Chinese goods are reviewed in the end. The evolution of currency policy. Chapter 3: Open Economy On the basis of theoretical analysis of the validity of monetary policy, based on the theoretical analysis of the validity of monetary policy, based on the historical evolution of monetary policy in China, variance decomposition and VAR model are adopted based on the historical evolution of monetary policy in China. An Empirical Model for the Evaluation and Analysis of China's Monetary Policy from Asian Gold Using Empirical Model The issue of the effectiveness of the crisis dependency. In this chapter, this article has passed since the financial crisis China's currency governance On the "Anti-Communication" of the Experience of Policy and Control contraction "Temperature-controlled spin-down anti-inflation" and The three stages of "insurance growth, deflation and inflation" establish an empirical model and establish an empirical model for the whole sample period. On the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy in China, Chapter Four: Open Economy The choice of medium target of money supply in China is based on the three standards selected by the medium target of monetary policy, and combined with the current situation in our country. The feasibility of monetary supply in China as an intermediary index of monetary policy is theoretically analyzed from four aspects: correlation, separability, controllability and conduction mechanism. Based on the empirical analysis, we draw the conclusion of the study. This chapter demonstrates whether the Taylor rule and its expanded form can well simulate the changing trend of monetary policy in our country from both theoretical and empirical aspects, and further analyzes the interest rate. No, as an intermediary target to evaluate the effectiveness of monetary policy, and on the basis of empirical conclusions, the Taylor rules are analyzed. The research conclusion of this chapter is that the interest rate rule is the policy rule based on the monetary authority's regulation of interest rate policy; the original Taylor rule does not apply to our country. The Taylor rules of the exhibition are more suitable for our country. Chapter 6: The choice of China's monetary policy target system under the open economy. This chapter first analyzes the current exchange rate target system, the currency target system and the inflation target system, and finds the inflation target. System, economy, technology and market are analyzed from four aspects: system, economy, technology and market. The condition that the inflation target system needs to meet is introduced in our country. Finally, the angle of minimizing the loss function of the central bank's monetary policy Development of theoretical model in hand An empirical study was carried out, and the results showed that Inflation Targeting The inflation deviation under the system is relatively smaller than that in the case of "camera choice mechanism". Therefore, our country can To make the inflation target into the future monetary policy orientation. Chapter 7: summarizes the overall research of this paper Conclusion: The paper gives the corresponding policy suggestions and puts forward the future research prospect. The paper makes an innovative research on the following aspects: Firstly, it not only evaluates the effective target of monetary policy formulation under the traditional research. Sex, and also analyzes the effectiveness of monetary policy in the selection of regulatory tools. The whole sample period is divided Secondly, many scholars in China do not have a clear distinction between the target of monetary policy and the most In the course of the study, the relationship between the target and the end target is clearly distinguished. The third, the feasibility, the influencing factor and the applicable strip of the medium target of the money supply in our country. On the basis of empirical test, the target of interest rate intermediary is deeply studied. By constructing a financial condition index, which contains the main asset and financial information, it is included in the Taylor rule, and all the other possible Taylor series are also studied. Through the comparative analysis of the rules, it is proved that the research model of this paper is applicable and reliable. Fourth, through the comparative analysis of the existing target system and flexible inflation target system in our country, the spirit is found. Living inflation target system is a viable option in China's monetary policy goal system. The flexible inflation target is derived through mathematical deduction. The optimal monetary rules under the system, and the application of China's actual data to carry out the empirical test. However, most
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南開大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F822.0
本文編號(hào)：2305975
[Abstract]:The global economic and financial integration has accelerated the international flow of national capital, the opening of the market, and further improved the allocation of resources in the global scope. But the whole financial operation environment depends on the monetary policy implementation, so it brings some difficulty to the government's overall economic policy from a macro perspective. In the process of formulating monetary policy, governments should not only take into account the domestic macro-economic health situation, but also pay attention to external factors such as international capital flow and world economic fluctuation. At the same time, the international capital flow and the world economic form will respond to the change of national currency policy and change the effect of monetary policy in China. Under the current open economy condition, the traditional monetary policy tool cannot adapt to the new financial environment, and the choice of the monetary policy target system needs to adapt to the new change. Since entering the new century, our country's economic development has been confronted with a very complicated internal and external environment, which is embodied in many contradictions, such as RMB appreciation pressure, aggravated foreign trade friction, asset price expansion and so on. Although the central bank of china has introduced a series of monetary policies, the effect is not obvious. Therefore, the effectiveness of monetary policy in our country, the choice of goal frame of monetary policy and so on deserve further study. In summary, under the basic framework of economic research, this paper, on the basis of extensive data collection, pays special attention to the combination of the application of the method and the research of the problem, and starts with the basic problem of China's economic growth, and carries out the choice of the target system of monetary policy in China. The full text is divided into seven chapters and specific contents. The following are the following: Chapter: Introduction. In this section, a general introduction of the whole text will be made, and the contents of three aspects are discussed separately. It is set forth, including research significance and research background, research methods and technical route, innovation point. Chapter II: Monetary Policy This chapter defines and analyzes the relevant concepts of monetary policy, and focuses on the concepts of monetary policy, intermediary target, ultimate goal, final objective rule and nominal anchor, which are closely related to the research of this paper. Secondly, the paper introduces the intermediary of monetary policy. The relevant theories of the selection of monetary policy mainly include the theory of monetary policy, Keynesian school and post-Keynesian school; once again, the relevant theories of the ultimate goal of monetary policy, including the time inconsistency theory of monetary policy, are introduced. The principle of monetary policy choice between the rules and the camera choice is analyzed and the Chinese goods are reviewed in the end. The evolution of currency policy. Chapter 3: Open Economy On the basis of theoretical analysis of the validity of monetary policy, based on the theoretical analysis of the validity of monetary policy, based on the historical evolution of monetary policy in China, variance decomposition and VAR model are adopted based on the historical evolution of monetary policy in China. An Empirical Model for the Evaluation and Analysis of China's Monetary Policy from Asian Gold Using Empirical Model The issue of the effectiveness of the crisis dependency. In this chapter, this article has passed since the financial crisis China's currency governance On the "Anti-Communication" of the Experience of Policy and Control contraction "Temperature-controlled spin-down anti-inflation" and The three stages of "insurance growth, deflation and inflation" establish an empirical model and establish an empirical model for the whole sample period. On the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy in China, Chapter Four: Open Economy The choice of medium target of money supply in China is based on the three standards selected by the medium target of monetary policy, and combined with the current situation in our country. The feasibility of monetary supply in China as an intermediary index of monetary policy is theoretically analyzed from four aspects: correlation, separability, controllability and conduction mechanism. Based on the empirical analysis, we draw the conclusion of the study. This chapter demonstrates whether the Taylor rule and its expanded form can well simulate the changing trend of monetary policy in our country from both theoretical and empirical aspects, and further analyzes the interest rate. No, as an intermediary target to evaluate the effectiveness of monetary policy, and on the basis of empirical conclusions, the Taylor rules are analyzed. The research conclusion of this chapter is that the interest rate rule is the policy rule based on the monetary authority's regulation of interest rate policy; the original Taylor rule does not apply to our country. The Taylor rules of the exhibition are more suitable for our country. Chapter 6: The choice of China's monetary policy target system under the open economy. This chapter first analyzes the current exchange rate target system, the currency target system and the inflation target system, and finds the inflation target. System, economy, technology and market are analyzed from four aspects: system, economy, technology and market. The condition that the inflation target system needs to meet is introduced in our country. Finally, the angle of minimizing the loss function of the central bank's monetary policy Development of theoretical model in hand An empirical study was carried out, and the results showed that Inflation Targeting The inflation deviation under the system is relatively smaller than that in the case of "camera choice mechanism". Therefore, our country can To make the inflation target into the future monetary policy orientation. Chapter 7: summarizes the overall research of this paper Conclusion: The paper gives the corresponding policy suggestions and puts forward the future research prospect. The paper makes an innovative research on the following aspects: Firstly, it not only evaluates the effective target of monetary policy formulation under the traditional research. Sex, and also analyzes the effectiveness of monetary policy in the selection of regulatory tools. The whole sample period is divided Secondly, many scholars in China do not have a clear distinction between the target of monetary policy and the most In the course of the study, the relationship between the target and the end target is clearly distinguished. The third, the feasibility, the influencing factor and the applicable strip of the medium target of the money supply in our country. On the basis of empirical test, the target of interest rate intermediary is deeply studied. By constructing a financial condition index, which contains the main asset and financial information, it is included in the Taylor rule, and all the other possible Taylor series are also studied. Through the comparative analysis of the rules, it is proved that the research model of this paper is applicable and reliable. Fourth, through the comparative analysis of the existing target system and flexible inflation target system in our country, the spirit is found. Living inflation target system is a viable option in China's monetary policy goal system. The flexible inflation target is derived through mathematical deduction. The optimal monetary rules under the system, and the application of China's actual data to carry out the empirical test. However, most
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南開大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F822.0
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相關(guān)博士學(xué)位論文 前4條
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3 龍成學(xué);貨幣政策規(guī)則及其在我國的適用性研究[D];華中科技大學(xué);2009年
4 張代強(qiáng);中國貨幣政策的數(shù)量規(guī)則與價(jià)格規(guī)則的有效性研究[D];吉林大學(xué);2010年
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