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人民幣國(guó)際化成本收益分析

發(fā)布時(shí)間:2018-09-18 10:09
【摘要】:2008年金融危機(jī)爆發(fā)以來,中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)在危機(jī)中受到了一定程度上的影響。中國(guó)的外匯儲(chǔ)備中有60%都是美元,美元的貶值使我國(guó)的外匯儲(chǔ)備急劇縮水。同時(shí),中國(guó)也采取了一些積極的措施應(yīng)對(duì)危機(jī),進(jìn)行了人民幣貿(mào)易結(jié)算試點(diǎn)并且積極開展與世界各國(guó)的貨幣互換合作,使世界各國(guó)提升了對(duì)中國(guó)的信心?梢哉f金融危機(jī)也為人民幣國(guó)際化提供了一定的契機(jī)。在這樣的背景下,人民幣國(guó)際化是非常有必要的,而且我國(guó)也已經(jīng)具備了一些人民幣國(guó)際化所需的條件。而人民幣國(guó)際化具有一定的成本和收益,為了便于比較,本文對(duì)人民幣國(guó)際化成本收益問題進(jìn)行了研究。 首先,是文獻(xiàn)綜述部分。主要介紹了貨幣國(guó)際化的定義、成本、收益以及人民幣國(guó)際化的成本和收益等方面的相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)。接著對(duì)人民幣國(guó)際化的現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行了定性和定量的分析。其次,文章以人民幣國(guó)際化的成本和收益為兩大主線,在方法上,對(duì)人民幣國(guó)際化的成本和收益均進(jìn)行了定性和定量分析。在內(nèi)容上,將人民幣國(guó)際化的成本概括為:陷入“三元悖論”;面臨“特里芬難題”;人民幣國(guó)際化逆轉(zhuǎn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn);貨幣替代風(fēng)險(xiǎn);國(guó)內(nèi)金融、經(jīng)濟(jì)的穩(wěn)定受到威脅等。而人民幣國(guó)際化的收益則劃分為可計(jì)量的與不可計(jì)量的收益兩部分。其中,可計(jì)量的收益主要包括國(guó)際鑄幣稅收益以及運(yùn)用境外人民幣儲(chǔ)備資產(chǎn)投資產(chǎn)生的金融性凈收益,根據(jù)本文的計(jì)算,2011年我們實(shí)際獲得的國(guó)際鑄幣稅收益為837.34億元,按照進(jìn)口增長(zhǎng)率保持一定的比率不變,,可以推算出到2020年人民幣國(guó)際化的實(shí)際收益為13034.4億元,收入相當(dāng)可觀。不可計(jì)量的收益主要包括:提升國(guó)際地位;獲得外匯儲(chǔ)備收益;完善國(guó)際貨幣體系;促進(jìn)金融市場(chǎng)的發(fā)展以及促進(jìn)國(guó)際貿(mào)易和對(duì)外投資等。最后,根據(jù)人民幣國(guó)際化的成本與收益的比較,認(rèn)為從總體來說,人民幣國(guó)際化的收益大于成本。并提出了一些推進(jìn)人民幣國(guó)際化進(jìn)程的對(duì)策建議。
[Abstract]:Since the financial crisis broke out in 2008, China's economy has been affected to a certain extent. Sixty percent of China's foreign exchange reserves are in dollars, and the depreciation of the dollar sharply shrinks China's foreign exchange reserves. At the same time, China has also taken some positive measures to deal with the crisis, conducted RMB trade settlement pilot and actively carried out currency swap cooperation with other countries in the world, which has boosted the confidence of all countries in the world. It can be said that the financial crisis also provides a certain opportunity for the internationalization of RMB. Against this background, RMB internationalization is very necessary, and China already has some necessary conditions for RMB internationalization. But RMB internationalization has certain costs and benefits, in order to facilitate comparison, this paper studies the cost and benefit of RMB internationalization. First, the literature review part. This paper mainly introduces the definition of currency internationalization, the cost, benefit, and the cost and income of RMB internationalization. Then the current situation of RMB internationalization is analyzed qualitatively and quantitatively. Secondly, taking the cost and income of RMB internationalization as the two main lines, the paper qualitatively and quantitatively analyzes the cost and benefit of RMB internationalization. In content, the cost of RMB internationalization is summarized as follows: falling into the "ternary paradox"; facing the "Triffin problem"; the risk of RMB internationalization reversal; the risk of currency substitution; the threat to the stability of domestic finance and economy. The income of RMB internationalization is divided into two parts: measurable income and non-measurable income. Among them, the measurable income mainly includes the international seigniorage income and the financial net income generated by the investment of RMB reserve assets abroad. According to the calculation of this paper, the actual international seigniorage income in 2011 is 83.734 billion yuan. According to the import growth rate, we can calculate that the real income of RMB internationalization by 2020 is 1.30344 trillion yuan, and the income is considerable. The non-quantifiable benefits mainly include: enhancing international status, obtaining foreign exchange reserve income, perfecting the international monetary system, promoting the development of financial market and promoting international trade and foreign investment. Finally, according to the comparison of the cost and income of RMB internationalization, it is concluded that the benefit of RMB internationalization is greater than the cost. And put forward some countermeasures and suggestions to promote the process of RMB internationalization.
【學(xué)位授予單位】:遼寧大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】:碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】:2013
【分類號(hào)】:F832.6

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