中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測(cè)者的真?zhèn)窝蛉盒袨楸嫖?/H1>
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-09-14 17:29
【摘要】：羊群行為包括真羊群行為和偽羊群行為。真羊群行為是指經(jīng)濟(jì)個(gè)體的決策受到他人決策或行為的影響從而不去獲取信息或者忽略自己的私人信息直接跟從他人,而偽羊群行為則表現(xiàn)為經(jīng)濟(jì)個(gè)體依據(jù)相同的信息做出了類似的決策。在經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測(cè)中,真羊群行為由于預(yù)測(cè)者忽略了自己的私人信息從而往往會(huì)引起顯著的預(yù)測(cè)偏誤,而偽羊群行為由于預(yù)測(cè)者依據(jù)自己的私人信息獨(dú)立地做出預(yù)測(cè)從而做出準(zhǔn)確預(yù)測(cè)的可能性較大。本文從宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測(cè)和股票投資評(píng)級(jí)兩個(gè)方面對(duì)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測(cè)者的真?zhèn)窝蛉盒袨檫M(jìn)行了辨析。分析結(jié)果表明,我國(guó)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測(cè)中的羊群行為很可能是真羊群行為,而在股票投資評(píng)級(jí)中出現(xiàn)的羊群行為很可能是偽羊群行為。
[Abstract]:Herding behavior includes real herding behavior and pseudo-herding behavior.Real herding behavior refers to the economic individual's decision-making affected by other people's decision-making or behavior so as not to obtain information or ignore their own private information directly following others,while pseudo-herding behavior shows that economic individuals make similar decisions based on the same information. In economic forecasting, real herd behavior often leads to significant forecast errors because forecasters ignore their own private information, while pseudo-herd behavior is more likely to make accurate forecasts because forecasters independently make predictions based on their own private information. The results show that the herding behavior in macroeconomic forecast is likely to be true herding behavior, and the herding behavior in stock investment rating is likely to be false herding behavior.
【作者單位】： 上海財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)學(xué)術(shù)期刊編輯部;
【分類號(hào)】：F832.51;F224
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本文編號(hào)：2243388
本文鏈接：http://sikaile.net/guanlilunwen/bankxd/2243388.html
[Abstract]:Herding behavior includes real herding behavior and pseudo-herding behavior.Real herding behavior refers to the economic individual's decision-making affected by other people's decision-making or behavior so as not to obtain information or ignore their own private information directly following others,while pseudo-herding behavior shows that economic individuals make similar decisions based on the same information. In economic forecasting, real herd behavior often leads to significant forecast errors because forecasters ignore their own private information, while pseudo-herd behavior is more likely to make accurate forecasts because forecasters independently make predictions based on their own private information. The results show that the herding behavior in macroeconomic forecast is likely to be true herding behavior, and the herding behavior in stock investment rating is likely to be false herding behavior.
【作者單位】： 上海財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)學(xué)術(shù)期刊編輯部;
【分類號(hào)】：F832.51;F224
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，本文編號(hào)：2243388
本文鏈接：http://sikaile.net/guanlilunwen/bankxd/2243388.html
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