發(fā)布時間：2018-09-03 14:14

【摘要】：隨著我國對外開放步伐的邁進,我國的國際貿易經(jīng)常賬戶對外開放程度已經(jīng)達到了較高的水平,而且我國的資本賬戶也逐步對外開放,同時也意味著,在原有開放程度較低的封閉經(jīng)濟條件下,所提出的宏觀經(jīng)濟理論和政策已經(jīng)不能完全解釋和改善現(xiàn)在的經(jīng)濟現(xiàn)象,因此本文將國際收支和通貨膨脹作為研究的主體,主要從國際收支影響通貨膨脹的角度,分別從經(jīng)常賬戶、資本和金融賬戶以及儲備賬戶三個具體路徑研究其影響程度。 本文先從理論上系統(tǒng)分析國際收支平衡表的各個方面對通貨膨脹的傳遞途徑,然后采用1997年至2013年的月度數(shù)據(jù)建立多因素向量自回歸模型,實證分析各個途徑。結果顯示：經(jīng)常賬戶傳導路徑中,國際大宗商品價格的波動能顯著的影響國內物價；資本金融賬戶傳導路徑中,外商直接投資的增加可以提高國民生產總值、促進房地產市場的發(fā)展,進而帶動物價水平的上升,但是影響較�。粌滟~戶傳導路徑中,外匯儲備資產的變動不能顯著地影響基礎貨幣的變動進而影響物價水平。最后,根據(jù)研究結論,提出相對應的政策建議,有助于改善我國國際收支和通貨膨脹狀況。本文的主要創(chuàng)新點：第一,在本文的理論研究中,考慮對國際大宗商品在價格傳導機制中的影響以及考慮中央銀行在貨幣傳導中的影響；第二,提出了國際收支影響通貨膨脹完善全面的路徑體系,并且對不同影響路徑之間進行比較；第三,數(shù)據(jù)選取月度數(shù)據(jù),更清晰的反映了指標的短期波動。
[Abstract]:With the development of our country's opening to the outside world, China's current account of international trade has reached a higher level, and our capital account has gradually opened to the outside world, which also means that, Under the condition of closed economy with low opening degree, the macroeconomic theory and policy put forward can not completely explain and improve the present economic phenomenon, so this paper regards the balance of payments and inflation as the main body of study. From the point of view of the impact of balance of payments on inflation, this paper studies the influence degree of current account, capital account and financial account and reserve account respectively. In this paper, we first systematically analyze the transmission of inflation in all aspects of the balance of payments in theory, and then use the monthly data from 1997 to 2013 to establish a multi-factor vector autoregressive model, and analyze each way empirically. The results show that in the current account transmission path, the fluctuation of international commodity prices can significantly affect domestic prices, while in the capital financial account transmission path, the increase of foreign direct investment can increase the gross national product (GNP). Promote the development of the real estate market, and then lead to the rise of the price level, but the impact is small; in the transmission path of reserve account, the change of foreign exchange reserve assets can not significantly affect the change of the base currency and then the price level. Finally, according to the conclusions of the study, the corresponding policy suggestions are put forward, which will help to improve the balance of payments and inflation in China. The main innovations of this paper are as follows: first, in the theoretical research of this paper, we consider the influence of international commodities in price transmission mechanism and the influence of central bank in monetary transmission. This paper puts forward a perfect and comprehensive path system of the impact of balance of payments on inflation, and compares the different impact paths. Thirdly, the data select monthly data, more clearly reflect the short-term fluctuations of indicators.
【學位授予單位】：浙江工業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F822.5;F832.6

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本文編號：2220209