【摘要】：隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化進(jìn)程的不斷加快，2007年由美國(guó)次貸危機(jī)引發(fā)的全球金融海嘯給世界經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來(lái)了巨大的沖擊，世界各國(guó)都逐漸意識(shí)到消費(fèi)金融對(duì)于本國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的重要作用。在我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整和經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展方式轉(zhuǎn)變的背景下，消費(fèi)作為促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的有效手段和途徑，在整個(gè)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展中的地位和作用日益凸顯。消費(fèi)金融可以在一定程度上滿足消費(fèi)者資金融通的需要，起到刺激國(guó)內(nèi)消費(fèi)需求進(jìn)而帶動(dòng)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)可持續(xù)發(fā)展的目的。在我國(guó)，消費(fèi)金融仍是一片新興的研究領(lǐng)域，回顧以往對(duì)消費(fèi)金融的研究，主要是從消費(fèi)金融的概念和范疇或微觀層面上消費(fèi)者個(gè)人和家庭的消費(fèi)金融狀況進(jìn)行探討，，但從宏觀角度講，到底為什么要發(fā)展消費(fèi)金融業(yè)務(wù)，消費(fèi)金融的發(fā)展能否為我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展帶來(lái)切實(shí)的利益，都有待于我們進(jìn)一步去深入地探討。 基于此，本文創(chuàng)新性地選取我國(guó)消費(fèi)金融發(fā)展?fàn)顩r與居民消費(fèi)需求之間的關(guān)系作為研究的切入點(diǎn)。本文首先對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)外消費(fèi)金融的研究現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行了評(píng)述，梳理了相關(guān)研究的基礎(chǔ)理論，隨后從五個(gè)方面對(duì)我國(guó)消費(fèi)金融發(fā)展的現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行闡述，并分別從人口結(jié)構(gòu)、家庭生命周期、社會(huì)保障、消費(fèi)者偏好和宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策等方面定性分析了消費(fèi)金融的影響因素。本文選取1997—2011年消費(fèi)信貸余額和居民消費(fèi)水平的數(shù)據(jù)作為衡量指標(biāo)，構(gòu)建了時(shí)間序列自回歸模型，并依次運(yùn)用單位根檢驗(yàn)、協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)和格蘭杰因果關(guān)系檢驗(yàn)對(duì)回歸模型進(jìn)行了驗(yàn)證。通過(guò)實(shí)證分析發(fā)現(xiàn)，消費(fèi)信貸余額與居民消費(fèi)水平之間存在長(zhǎng)期穩(wěn)定的均衡關(guān)系，并得出消費(fèi)金融發(fā)展能夠在一定程度上帶動(dòng)居民消費(fèi)水平提高這一重要結(jié)論，為消費(fèi)金融在我國(guó)的發(fā)展提供了有力的理論支持。
[Abstract]:With the acceleration of the process of economic globalization, the global financial tsunami triggered by the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States in 2007 has brought a tremendous impact to the world economy. All countries in the world have gradually realized the important role of consumer finance in their economic development. Under the background of the adjustment of economic structure and the transformation of economic development mode, consumption, as an effective means and means to promote economic growth, is playing an increasingly important role in the development of the whole national economy. Consumer finance can meet the needs of consumer finance to a certain extent and stimulate domestic consumption demand and promote the sustainable development of our economy. In China, consumer finance is still a new research field. Reviewing the previous research on consumer finance, mainly from the concept and scope of consumer finance or micro-level consumer financial situation of consumers and households. But from the macro point of view, why should we develop consumer finance business, and whether the development of consumer finance can bring real benefits to the development of our country's economy needs to be further discussed. Based on this, this paper innovatively selects the relationship between the development of consumer finance and the consumption demand of residents as the starting point. This paper first reviews the current research situation of consumer finance at home and abroad, combs the basic theory of related research, then expounds the current situation of consumer finance development in China from five aspects, and respectively from the population structure, family life cycle. Social security, consumer preference and macroeconomic policy are analyzed qualitatively. In this paper, the data of the balance of consumer credit and the consumption level of residents from 1997 to 2011 are selected as indicators, and the time series autoregressive model is constructed, and the unit root test is used in turn. Cointegration test and Granger causality test are used to verify the regression model. Through the empirical analysis, it is found that there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between the balance of consumer credit and the consumption level of residents, and it is concluded that the development of consumer finance can promote the improvement of consumption level to a certain extent. For the development of consumer finance in China to provide a strong theoretical support.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：河北大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F832.4;F126.1

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