【摘要】：貿(mào)易順差的持續(xù)擴(kuò)大,是我國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展過程中存在的一個(gè)不平衡不可持續(xù)的狀況。我認(rèn)為,造成中國巨大的外貿(mào)順差的原因,在于生產(chǎn)要素價(jià)格的扭曲,而非人民幣匯率低估。長期以來,我國勞動(dòng)力、資源、土地、資本等生產(chǎn)要素價(jià)格處于較低水平,造成了我國出口產(chǎn)品生產(chǎn)成本較低,出口貿(mào)易部門膨脹,貿(mào)易順差加劇,人民幣升值壓力巨大。為了調(diào)整這種內(nèi)外不平衡的狀況,我國政府及時(shí)調(diào)整經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展模式,提出了轉(zhuǎn)方式,調(diào)結(jié)構(gòu),擴(kuò)內(nèi)需的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略。這種戰(zhàn)略的成功實(shí)施,關(guān)鍵在于要素價(jià)格改革。完善我國社保體系,改善勞動(dòng)力的市場供求機(jī)制,提高勞動(dòng)者的收入,提高資源的價(jià)格,提高環(huán)境污染的成本,這是要素價(jià)格改革的具體措施,有利于擴(kuò)大我國內(nèi)需,促使企業(yè)進(jìn)行生產(chǎn)技術(shù)改革,改變以前的高耗能、高污染的粗放式生產(chǎn)方式。 勞動(dòng)力是生產(chǎn)要素的一個(gè)重要組成部分,工資水平是生產(chǎn)要素價(jià)格的重要方面。隨著我國一系列的調(diào)整措施,我國的工資水平近年來呈現(xiàn)了快速提高的趨勢,這種變化趨勢對于人民幣匯率的變動(dòng)產(chǎn)生一系列的影響,從而會(huì)對我國的外貿(mào)出口形勢產(chǎn)生影響。那么,工資水平的調(diào)整,對我國匯率影響的具體機(jī)制是什么?本文帶著這個(gè)問題,對“巴拉薩-薩繆爾森效應(yīng)”理論進(jìn)行深入研究,并驗(yàn)證其在中國的適用性。在論證中國的現(xiàn)實(shí)情況后,對B-S效應(yīng)模型進(jìn)行修正,打破了原來模型中的工資均等化的假設(shè),分析了各個(gè)部門間的工資的差異,同時(shí)分析這種差異對我國實(shí)際匯率產(chǎn)生的影響。本文收集我國的20年的數(shù)據(jù),定量分析勞動(dòng)力要素價(jià)格對實(shí)際匯率波動(dòng)的影響。改進(jìn)后的模型與實(shí)證分析均表明我國可貿(mào)易部門工資水平的提高,會(huì)導(dǎo)致實(shí)際匯率貶值,而非貿(mào)易部門的工資變動(dòng)對匯率的效應(yīng)則恰好與前者相反。這樣的結(jié)論也告訴我們,可通過大幅提高我國的可貿(mào)易部門工資水平來減輕人民幣目前所面臨的升值壓力,同時(shí)為我國外貿(mào)企業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型提供緩沖期,從而通過運(yùn)用要素價(jià)格改革的措施,來實(shí)現(xiàn)調(diào)結(jié)構(gòu)、轉(zhuǎn)方式、擴(kuò)內(nèi)需的戰(zhàn)略轉(zhuǎn)型。
[Abstract]:The continuous expansion of trade surplus is an unbalanced and unsustainable situation in the process of economic development in China. I think the reason for China's huge foreign trade surplus is the distortion of factor prices, not the undervaluation of the yuan. For a long time, the price of labor, resources, land, capital and other factors of production in our country is at a low level, which causes the low production cost of export products, the expansion of export trade sector, the intensification of trade surplus, and the pressure of RMB appreciation. In order to adjust this situation of internal and external imbalance, our government adjusts the mode of economic development in time, and puts forward the economic development strategy of changing mode, adjusting structure and expanding domestic demand. The key to successful implementation of this strategy is factor price reform. Perfecting our social security system, improving the mechanism of labor market supply and demand, raising workers' income, raising the price of resources, and raising the cost of environmental pollution are concrete measures for the reform of factor prices, which is conducive to expanding domestic demand in our country. Urge enterprises to reform production technology and change the former extensive production mode of high energy consumption and high pollution. Labor force is an important part of factor of production and wage level is an important aspect of factor price of production. With a series of adjustment measures in our country, the wage level of our country has been increasing rapidly in recent years. This trend has a series of effects on the change of RMB exchange rate, which will have an impact on the situation of foreign trade and export of our country. So, what is the specific mechanism of the adjustment of wage level on the exchange rate of our country? With this problem, the theory of Barassa-Samuelson effect is studied in depth, and its applicability in China is verified. After demonstrating the reality of China, the B-S effect model is revised, which breaks the hypothesis of wage equalization in the original model, analyzes the wage difference among different departments and analyzes the influence of this difference on the real exchange rate of our country. This paper collects the data of 20 years in China to quantitatively analyze the effect of labor factor price on the fluctuation of real exchange rate. The improved model and empirical analysis show that the increase of wage level in tradable sector will lead to the depreciation of real exchange rate, while the effect of wage change in non-trade sector on the exchange rate is just the opposite. This conclusion also tells us that the appreciation pressure faced by the RMB can be alleviated by substantially increasing the wage level of the tradable sector in China, and at the same time providing a buffer period for the transformation of our foreign trade enterprises. Therefore, through the measures of factor price reform, the strategic transformation of adjusting structure, changing mode and expanding domestic demand is realized.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國政法大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F249.2;F832.6

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