中國商業(yè)銀行盈利能力的影響因素研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-08-02 08:16
【摘要】：在復雜多變的經濟環(huán)境下，，我國銀行業(yè)既面臨著嚴峻的挑戰(zhàn)，也迎來了機遇。如何應對挑戰(zhàn)、把握機遇、全面提升我國銀行的盈利能力，促進核心競爭力形成，是擺在銀行自身及監(jiān)管層面前的緊迫問題。盈利能力作為銀行的核心能力，直接關系到銀行抵御風險和充實資本的能力，因此增強盈利能力是銀行提高競爭力的關鍵和持續(xù)穩(wěn)定發(fā)展的基石，開展中國商業(yè)行盈利能力的研究具有深刻的意義。 基于此，本文在綜合了國內外大量文獻的研究成果，首先將影響銀行盈利的因素分為內部環(huán)境和外部環(huán)境兩個方面，采用面板廣義矩估計方法對1997-2010年中國144家商業(yè)銀行進行了實證分析。其中影響銀行盈利能力的內部因素主要有：風險類因素、銀行運營因素及其他因素；影響銀行盈利能力的外部因素有市場結構和宏觀經濟影響因素。在上述因素中，選取具有代表性的指標作為解釋變量，使用資產收益率（ROA）、資本收益率（ROE）、銀行總收入和撥備前收益率這四個指標來測度銀行的盈利水平。其次分析了我國商業(yè)銀行的盈利結構對其盈利能力的影響，使用銀行非利息收入占比為體現(xiàn)銀行中間業(yè)務水平的測度指標，加入體現(xiàn)銀行融資結構的控制變量，結合銀行特質變量和宏觀經濟變量，考察銀行非利息收入占比對銀行資產收益率（ROA）的影響機制。最后對實證結果進行深入的剖析總結。 研究表明： ①商業(yè)銀行的盈利能力除了與銀行特征性質有關，還與金融市場結構和宏觀經濟變量息息相關。 ②銀行風險因素中不良貸款率、壞賬存量和測度破產概率的Z-Score對中國銀行業(yè)的盈利能力有顯著負影響 ③效率高的銀行，利潤水平也較高；銀行規(guī)模與銀行盈利能力存在正相關關系。 ④規(guī)模大、分布廣、市場影響力高的銀行可以憑借規(guī)模優(yōu)勢降低成本獲取更高利潤； ⑤GDP增長率、通貨膨脹率和存貸款基準利差等外部宏觀環(huán)境也會顯著影響商業(yè)銀行盈利水平。真實GDP的高增長率和通脹率在一定程度內都有利于中國銀行業(yè)盈利能力的增強；存貸款基準利率差越大，銀行獲得的利潤越多；但利率波動率對盈利負相關。 ⑥銀行非利息收入占比的提高會增加銀行的資產收益率水平，銀行非存款融資占比也可以提升銀行的盈利水平。并且銀行非利息收入業(yè)務主要受銀行內部特征變量影響，其中銀行規(guī)模大、權益資產比高的銀行，其非利息收入占比往往較高。
[Abstract]:In the complex and changeable economic environment, China's banking industry is facing severe challenges, but also ushered in opportunities. How to deal with the challenge, seize the opportunity, improve the profitability of Chinese banks and promote the formation of core competitiveness is an urgent problem in front of the banks themselves and the supervision level. As the core competence of banks, profitability is directly related to the ability of banks to resist risks and replenish capital. Therefore, enhancing profitability is the key to enhance competitiveness of banks and the cornerstone of sustainable and stable development. It is of great significance to carry out the research on the profitability of Chinese commercial banks. Based on this, this paper synthesizes the research results of a large number of literatures at home and abroad. Firstly, the factors that affect bank earnings are divided into two aspects: internal environment and external environment. An empirical analysis of 144 commercial banks in China from 1997 to 2010 is carried out by using the panel generalized moment estimation method. Among them, the internal factors that affect the profitability of banks are: risk factors, operational factors and other factors, and the external factors that affect the profitability of banks are market structure and macroeconomic factors. Among the above factors, the representative index is chosen as the explanatory variable, and the total income of (ROE), bank and the rate of return before reserve are used to measure the profit level of the bank. Secondly, it analyzes the influence of commercial banks' profit structure on their profitability. Using the proportion of non-interest income of banks as the measure index to reflect the level of intermediate business of banks, we add the control variables that reflect the financing structure of banks. Combined with bank trait variables and macroeconomic variables, this paper investigates the influence mechanism of bank non-interest income ratio on bank asset return rate (ROA). Finally, the empirical results of in-depth analysis and summary. The results show that: (1) the profitability of commercial banks is closely related to the structure of the financial market and macroeconomic variables in addition to the characteristics of the banks. (2) the non-performing loan ratio in the risk factors of banks, The amount of bad debts and Z-Score, which measure the probability of bankruptcy, have a significant negative effect on the profitability of Chinese banks. There is a positive correlation between bank size and bank profitability. 4 Banks with large scale, wide distribution and high market influence can reduce costs and gain higher profits by virtue of scale advantage. The external macro environment, such as inflation rate and benchmark spread of deposit and loan, will also significantly affect the profit level of commercial banks. The high growth rate and inflation rate of real GDP are beneficial to the profitability of China's banking industry to some extent, the bigger the difference between deposit and loan benchmark rates, the more profit banks get. However, interest rate volatility is negatively related to profitability. 6 the increase in the proportion of non-interest income of banks will increase the level of return on assets of banks, and the proportion of non-deposit financing can also improve the profitability of banks. And the non-interest income business of the bank is mainly influenced by the internal characteristic variables of the bank, in which the bank with large scale and high equity and assets ratio often has a higher proportion of non-interest income.
【學位授予單位】：重慶大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F832.33
本文編號：2158785
[Abstract]:In the complex and changeable economic environment, China's banking industry is facing severe challenges, but also ushered in opportunities. How to deal with the challenge, seize the opportunity, improve the profitability of Chinese banks and promote the formation of core competitiveness is an urgent problem in front of the banks themselves and the supervision level. As the core competence of banks, profitability is directly related to the ability of banks to resist risks and replenish capital. Therefore, enhancing profitability is the key to enhance competitiveness of banks and the cornerstone of sustainable and stable development. It is of great significance to carry out the research on the profitability of Chinese commercial banks. Based on this, this paper synthesizes the research results of a large number of literatures at home and abroad. Firstly, the factors that affect bank earnings are divided into two aspects: internal environment and external environment. An empirical analysis of 144 commercial banks in China from 1997 to 2010 is carried out by using the panel generalized moment estimation method. Among them, the internal factors that affect the profitability of banks are: risk factors, operational factors and other factors, and the external factors that affect the profitability of banks are market structure and macroeconomic factors. Among the above factors, the representative index is chosen as the explanatory variable, and the total income of (ROE), bank and the rate of return before reserve are used to measure the profit level of the bank. Secondly, it analyzes the influence of commercial banks' profit structure on their profitability. Using the proportion of non-interest income of banks as the measure index to reflect the level of intermediate business of banks, we add the control variables that reflect the financing structure of banks. Combined with bank trait variables and macroeconomic variables, this paper investigates the influence mechanism of bank non-interest income ratio on bank asset return rate (ROA). Finally, the empirical results of in-depth analysis and summary. The results show that: (1) the profitability of commercial banks is closely related to the structure of the financial market and macroeconomic variables in addition to the characteristics of the banks. (2) the non-performing loan ratio in the risk factors of banks, The amount of bad debts and Z-Score, which measure the probability of bankruptcy, have a significant negative effect on the profitability of Chinese banks. There is a positive correlation between bank size and bank profitability. 4 Banks with large scale, wide distribution and high market influence can reduce costs and gain higher profits by virtue of scale advantage. The external macro environment, such as inflation rate and benchmark spread of deposit and loan, will also significantly affect the profit level of commercial banks. The high growth rate and inflation rate of real GDP are beneficial to the profitability of China's banking industry to some extent, the bigger the difference between deposit and loan benchmark rates, the more profit banks get. However, interest rate volatility is negatively related to profitability. 6 the increase in the proportion of non-interest income of banks will increase the level of return on assets of banks, and the proportion of non-deposit financing can also improve the profitability of banks. And the non-interest income business of the bank is mainly influenced by the internal characteristic variables of the bank, in which the bank with large scale and high equity and assets ratio often has a higher proportion of non-interest income.
【學位授予單位】：重慶大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F832.33
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