【摘要】：20世紀(jì)50年代，西方發(fā)達(dá)國家開始運(yùn)用金融政策宏觀調(diào)控消費(fèi)，而在此之前，主要是運(yùn)用財(cái)政和收入分配政策。90年代初，部分發(fā)達(dá)國家陷入經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退，各國政府采用了發(fā)展消費(fèi)信貸來刺激有效需求。此后，消費(fèi)信貸得到快速的發(fā)展。1999年3月，中國人民銀行下發(fā)《關(guān)于開展個(gè)人消費(fèi)信貸的指導(dǎo)意見》，我國消費(fèi)信貸業(yè)務(wù)開始全面推廣。經(jīng)過十幾年的發(fā)展，我國消費(fèi)信貸余額從1998年的456.17億元增長(zhǎng)到2011年的88777.85億元，廣東省也增長(zhǎng)到2011年的12382.8億元，占全國的13.95％。目前，消費(fèi)信貸已經(jīng)成為商業(yè)銀行最具潛力的一項(xiàng)增值業(yè)務(wù)。那么，消費(fèi)信貸是否對(duì)廣東省經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)起到推動(dòng)作用、作用有多大、兩者之間存在著什么樣的關(guān)系，則是本文將要研究的問題。 本文運(yùn)用了理論與實(shí)證相結(jié)合的研究方法。先從基礎(chǔ)理論入手，分別闡述了經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)、消費(fèi)、信貸和需求等相關(guān)理論，采用廣東省2004～2011年GDP、消費(fèi)信貸余額和消費(fèi)需求的季度數(shù)據(jù)構(gòu)建向量自回歸模型，通過Johansen協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)、脈沖響應(yīng)、方差分解、格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn)等方法，實(shí)證研究了消費(fèi)信貸與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的關(guān)系以及它們之間的相關(guān)關(guān)系，并對(duì)模型中的相關(guān)問題進(jìn)行經(jīng)濟(jì)分析。研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，三者存在長(zhǎng)期穩(wěn)定的關(guān)系，廣東省消費(fèi)信貸對(duì)GDP的拉動(dòng)作用并不顯著，經(jīng)過分析，作者發(fā)現(xiàn)造成該現(xiàn)象的原因是廣東省仍然是以投資、出口為主導(dǎo)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)模式，居民收入水平增長(zhǎng)滯后于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)，個(gè)人、城鄉(xiāng)、企業(yè)、地域、行業(yè)之間的收入差距較大，導(dǎo)致整體消費(fèi)水平未能跟上經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展。在此基礎(chǔ)上，作者相對(duì)提出了一些策略，如進(jìn)一步完善收入分配制度，進(jìn)一步完善消費(fèi)信貸相關(guān)政策等。 總之，，消費(fèi)信貸是一個(gè)多維度的經(jīng)濟(jì)問題，值得我們進(jìn)行更深層次的探索。由于作者能力及其他條件的限制，本文涉及層次較淺，但作者仍然希望能夠?qū)υ擃I(lǐng)域的研究有一定的借鑒意義。
[Abstract]:In the 1950s, the western developed countries began to use financial policies to control consumption macroscopically, but before that, mainly using fiscal and income distribution policies in the early 1990s, some developed countries fell into economic recession. Governments have adopted the development of consumer credit to stimulate effective demand. Since then, consumer credit has developed rapidly. In March 1999, the people's Bank of China issued the guidelines on developing personal consumption Credit, and the business of consumer credit in China began to be popularized in an all-round way. After more than ten years' development, the balance of consumer credit in China has increased from 45.617 billion yuan in 1998 to 8.877785 trillion yuan in 2011, and that in Guangdong Province has also increased to 1.23828 trillion yuan in 2011, accounting for 13.95 yuan of the whole country. At present, consumer credit has become the most potential value-added business of commercial banks. Then, whether consumer credit plays a role in promoting economic growth in Guangdong Province, how big the role is, and what the relationship between the two is, is the question to be studied in this paper. This article uses the theory and the empirical research method. Starting with the basic theory, this paper expounds the relevant theories of economic growth, consumption, credit and demand, and constructs a vector autoregressive model using the quarterly data of Guangdong Province's GDP from 2004 to 2011, the balance of consumer credit and consumer demand, and adopts Johansen cointegration test. Impulse response, variance decomposition, Granger causality test and other methods, empirical study of the relationship between consumer credit and economic growth and their correlation, and economic analysis of the relevant problems in the model. It is found that there is a long-term and stable relationship among the three, and the pulling effect of consumer credit on GDP in Guangdong Province is not significant. After analysis, the author finds that the reason for this phenomenon is that Guangdong Province is still an economic growth model dominated by investment and export. The income level of residents lags behind the economic growth, the income gap between individuals, urban and rural areas, enterprises, regions and industries is large, resulting in the overall consumption level can not keep up with the economic development. On this basis, the author puts forward some relative strategies, such as further improving the income distribution system and consumptive credit related policies. In short, consumer credit is a multi-dimensional economic problem, worth our further exploration. Due to the limitations of the author's ability and other conditions, this paper involves a relatively shallow level, but the author still hopes to be able to study in this field has some reference significance.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：廣東外語外貿(mào)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F832.4;F127

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