本文選題：短期國(guó)際資本流動(dòng) + 規(guī)模測(cè)算��； 參考：《華東師范大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：上世紀(jì)九十年代,全球經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化和金融自由化日益加強(qiáng),短期國(guó)際資本也在這個(gè)背景下日益壯大,一方面提高了融資的速度和減少了融資的成本,增強(qiáng)了國(guó)際金融市場(chǎng)運(yùn)作效率,在全球經(jīng)濟(jì)中漸漸成為一個(gè)最活躍的力量,另一方面所帶來(lái)的負(fù)面影響也接連不斷,給全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的穩(wěn)定發(fā)展造成嚴(yán)重危害。在經(jīng)歷了1997年亞洲金融危機(jī)之后,短期國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)成為整個(gè)金融領(lǐng)域的一個(gè)倍受關(guān)注的話題,各國(guó)學(xué)者開(kāi)始展開(kāi)一系列的深入研究。 隨著我國(guó)加入WTO,我國(guó)對(duì)外經(jīng)濟(jì)的開(kāi)放程度不斷提高,金融自由化程度更加深入。雖然我國(guó)對(duì)資本項(xiàng)目的管制十分嚴(yán)格,但是依舊存在大量短期國(guó)際資本通過(guò)其他途徑在我國(guó)流入流出。由于我國(guó)金融市場(chǎng)和監(jiān)管體系還需進(jìn)一步完善,短期國(guó)際資本大量流入勢(shì)必會(huì)對(duì)我國(guó)金融穩(wěn)定性帶來(lái)巨大的沖擊,所以,必須要對(duì)我國(guó)短期國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)的影響因素進(jìn)行研究分析,進(jìn)而提出切實(shí)可行的政策建議來(lái)加以監(jiān)管。 本文先從理論角度對(duì)短期國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)進(jìn)行了一般概述,接著,從我國(guó)實(shí)際情況出發(fā),借鑒國(guó)內(nèi)外相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)研究結(jié)果,對(duì)我國(guó)2000年1月到2012年10月的短期國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)規(guī)模進(jìn)行了測(cè)算,然后以2009年10月到2012年10月為研究區(qū)間,建立我國(guó)短期國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)的回歸方程,對(duì)各影響因素進(jìn)行計(jì)量分析,實(shí)證結(jié)果表明短期國(guó)際資本凈流入長(zhǎng)期主要受到人民幣匯率預(yù)期、通貨膨脹率以及我國(guó)負(fù)利率的影響,而中美兩國(guó)利率差、證券市場(chǎng)收益在長(zhǎng)期對(duì)短期國(guó)際資本凈流入的影響并不是很顯著。最后,本文在實(shí)證分析的基礎(chǔ)上結(jié)合我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展?fàn)顩r,對(duì)我國(guó)短期國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)管理給出了針對(duì)性的政策建議。
[Abstract]:In the 1990s, global economic integration and financial liberalization were increasingly strengthened, and short-term international capital also grew in this context. On the one hand, it increased the speed of financing and reduced the cost of financing. It enhances the operation efficiency of international financial market, and gradually becomes the most active force in the global economy. On the other hand, the negative effects brought by it are one after another, causing serious harm to the stable development of the global economy. After the Asian financial crisis in 1997, short-term international capital flow has become a topic of great concern in the whole financial field, and scholars from all over the world have begun to carry out a series of in-depth studies. With China's entry into WTO, the opening degree of China's foreign economy has been improved, and the degree of financial liberalization has been deepened. Although our country has very strict control on capital account, there are still a lot of short-term international capital in and out of our country through other ways. Since China's financial market and regulatory system still need to be further improved, a large inflow of short-term international capital will inevitably bring a huge impact on the financial stability of our country, so, It is necessary to study and analyze the influencing factors of China's short-term international capital flows and put forward practical policy suggestions to supervise them. This paper first summarizes the short-term international capital flows from the theoretical point of view, and then, starting from the actual situation of our country, draws lessons from the relevant literature research results at home and abroad. This paper calculates the scale of short-term international capital flows from January 2000 to October 2012, and sets up the regression equation of short-term international capital flows from October 2009 to October 2012. The empirical results show that the short-term net inflow of international capital is mainly influenced by RMB exchange rate expectation, inflation rate and negative interest rate in China, while the interest rate difference between China and the United States. The long-term impact of stock market returns on short-term net international capital inflows is not significant. Finally, on the basis of empirical analysis, combined with the economic development of China, this paper gives some policy recommendations on short-term international capital flow management in China.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華東師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F832.5;F224

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