本文選題：貨幣政策 + 貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)��； 參考：《湖南大學(xué)》2007年碩士論文

【摘要】： 1998年我國(guó)實(shí)行住房體制改革以來(lái),我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)業(yè)迅速發(fā)展。從2000年開始,我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)業(yè)呈量增價(jià)升、購(gòu)銷兩旺的繁榮景象,在許多地區(qū)房地產(chǎn)業(yè)已經(jīng)成為新的支柱產(chǎn)業(yè),房地產(chǎn)業(yè)呈現(xiàn)出持續(xù)繁榮的狀態(tài),成為我國(guó)新的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)點(diǎn)和消費(fèi)熱點(diǎn)。在房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)持續(xù)火爆的同時(shí),我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格也連續(xù)多年呈現(xiàn)快速上升的態(tài)勢(shì),這從宏觀、微觀兩方面對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)或社會(huì)產(chǎn)生了負(fù)面影響,并且對(duì)各地經(jīng)濟(jì)金融運(yùn)行的影響越來(lái)越大。2003年以來(lái),雖然中央出臺(tái)了一系列緊縮性的貨幣政策,但我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格仍然高位運(yùn)行,貨幣政策的有效性受到了質(zhì)疑。而靈敏有效的貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制是貨幣政策成功實(shí)施的基礎(chǔ),因此在這一背景下研究我國(guó)貨幣政策的房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格傳導(dǎo)效應(yīng)具有一定的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 本文以我國(guó)貨幣政策的房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格傳導(dǎo)效應(yīng)為研究對(duì)象。研究的主要問(wèn)題是我國(guó)貨幣政策的房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制是否有效、是否暢通。沿著這個(gè)問(wèn)題,首先在理論上分析貨幣政策是如何作用于房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格,進(jìn)而如何通過(guò)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動(dòng)影響實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)。接著運(yùn)用相關(guān)分析、協(xié)整分析、Granger因果關(guān)系分析以及脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)和方差分解分析等方法對(duì)我國(guó)貨幣政策影響房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的效應(yīng)與時(shí)滯以及房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格影響實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的效應(yīng)與時(shí)滯進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析,實(shí)證結(jié)果表明:貨幣政策能夠影響房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格,長(zhǎng)期內(nèi)利率調(diào)整對(duì)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的沖擊比貨幣供應(yīng)量更為顯著,但利率政策的時(shí)滯較長(zhǎng),短期利率的上升還會(huì)伴隨房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的上升;房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格能夠影響實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì),且整體效率高,短期內(nèi)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格對(duì)投資的影響比對(duì)消費(fèi)的影響顯著。 從實(shí)證分析的結(jié)果可以看出,一方面我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格能把貨幣政策的效應(yīng)傳遞給實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì),另一方面貨幣政策雖然對(duì)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格具有一定的調(diào)控作用,但整體調(diào)控效果不理想。因此本文從房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)參與主體的角度,來(lái)進(jìn)一步分析我國(guó)貨幣政策調(diào)控房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的過(guò)程中可能存在的阻礙因素,并提出相應(yīng)的對(duì)策建議,試圖對(duì)我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的健康穩(wěn)定發(fā)展提供一定的理論和實(shí)踐支持。
[Abstract]:Since the housing system reform was carried out in 1998, the real estate industry of our country has developed rapidly. Since 2000, the real estate industry of our country has become a new pillar industry. The real estate industry has been in a state of continuous prosperity. Become our country's new economic growth point and consumption hot spot. While the real estate market continues to flourish, the real estate prices in our country have been rising rapidly for many years, which has had a negative impact on the economy or society from the macro and micro aspects. Since 2003, although the central government has issued a series of tight monetary policies, the real estate prices of our country are still high, and the effectiveness of monetary policy has been questioned. The sensitive and effective transmission mechanism of monetary policy is the basis of the successful implementation of monetary policy, so it is of practical significance to study the real estate price conduction effect of monetary policy in China under this background. This paper focuses on the real estate price conduction effect of monetary policy in China. The main problem is whether the real estate price transmission mechanism of monetary policy is effective and smooth. Along with this problem, we first analyze theoretically how monetary policy acts on real estate prices, and then how to affect the real economy through the fluctuation of real estate prices. And then using the correlation analysis, Cointegration analysis, Granger causality analysis, impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis are used to analyze the effects and delays of monetary policy on real estate price and real estate economy. The empirical results show that monetary policy can affect real estate prices, the impact of long-term interest rate adjustment on real estate prices is more significant than that of money supply, but the delay of interest rate policy is longer. The rise of short-term interest rate will also be accompanied by the rise of real estate prices, which can affect the real economy, and the overall efficiency is high. In the short term, the impact of real estate prices on investment is more significant than that on consumption. It can be seen from the empirical analysis that, on the one hand, the real estate price in our country can transfer the effect of monetary policy to the real economy; on the other hand, although monetary policy has a certain regulating effect on the real estate price, the overall effect is not ideal. Therefore, from the perspective of the participants in the real estate market, this paper further analyzes the possible obstacles in the process of monetary policy regulating real estate prices in China, and puts forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions. This paper attempts to provide some theoretical and practical support for the healthy and stable development of China's real estate market.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：湖南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2007
【分類號(hào)】：F822.0;F293.3;F224

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 盛松成;貨幣政策能否調(diào)控房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格[J];銀行家;2003年09期

2 王維安,賀聰;房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格與貨幣供求:經(jīng)驗(yàn)事實(shí)和理論假說(shuō)[J];財(cái)經(jīng)研究;2005年05期

3 楊孟澤;;房地產(chǎn)宏觀調(diào)控與地方政府行為扭曲[J];當(dāng)代經(jīng)濟(jì);2006年04期

4 吳龍龍;黃麗明;;應(yīng)該努力發(fā)揮銀行信貸住房?jī)r(jià)格的調(diào)控作用[J];中國(guó)房地產(chǎn);2005年12期

5 鐘巖;馬永莉;;商品房、經(jīng)濟(jì)適用房和廉租房的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)分析[J];華東經(jīng)濟(jì)管理;2006年08期

6 聶學(xué)峰,劉傳哲;我國(guó)貨幣政策影響房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的實(shí)證分析[J];河南金融管理干部學(xué)院學(xué)報(bào);2005年04期

7 馬永莉;鐘巖;王晶;;為什么房地產(chǎn)政策會(huì)失靈[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)師;2006年08期

8 郭貴祥;;房產(chǎn)信貸、房?jī)r(jià)上漲的互助性與宏觀調(diào)控[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)師;2006年12期

9 王蘭軍;央行加息后的居民"收支賬"[J];w攣胖蕓，

本文編號(hào)：2091357