本文選題：金融安全 + 土地批租制度��； 參考：《浙江工商大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)在金融體系支持下,經(jīng)歷了多年的迅猛發(fā)展,投資規(guī)模、交易規(guī)模、信貸規(guī)模一直以來(lái)持續(xù)增長(zhǎng),與此同時(shí),房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)價(jià)格也脫離居民家庭收入水平不斷上漲,由此形成一定程度的價(jià)格泡沫,影響到金融體系的安全,引起了政界與學(xué)界的高度關(guān)注。然而,與目前房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格存在一定程度的泡沫相比,土地批租制導(dǎo)致的房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)價(jià)格與其資產(chǎn)內(nèi)在價(jià)值背離所產(chǎn)生的系統(tǒng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn),對(duì)金融體系形成的威脅要更為嚴(yán)重。 因?yàn)槲覈?guó)實(shí)行城市土地國(guó)有制度,同時(shí)將城市土地所有權(quán)與使用權(quán)分離,按一定年限出讓土地使用權(quán),這使得商品房出讓土地使用權(quán)的投資價(jià)值小于土地資產(chǎn)的內(nèi)在價(jià)值,且隨著出讓年限的減少而逐年遞減,直至在出讓期限屆滿時(shí)趨于零。這也意味著出讓土地商品房資產(chǎn)的內(nèi)在價(jià)值在土地出讓期限臨近時(shí)也同步趨近于零。從長(zhǎng)期來(lái)看,任何資產(chǎn)的價(jià)格都應(yīng)該由其內(nèi)在價(jià)值決定,房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)上的商品房亦不能例外。在批租制下房地產(chǎn)資產(chǎn)價(jià)格應(yīng)當(dāng)隨其內(nèi)在價(jià)值的遞減而逐漸遞減,但房地產(chǎn)產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)現(xiàn)實(shí)情況卻是,在經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)向好以及金融體系支持的背景下,存量商品房和新建商品房的交易價(jià)格不受土地使用權(quán)年限的制約而持續(xù)上漲,房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)價(jià)格與其資產(chǎn)內(nèi)在價(jià)值產(chǎn)生了嚴(yán)重背離。 本文在上述分析土地使用權(quán)價(jià)值與商品房資產(chǎn)價(jià)值變化規(guī)律的基礎(chǔ)上,提出了土地使用權(quán)“剩余年限當(dāng)量”概念,從商品房市場(chǎng)整體的角度考察商品房市場(chǎng)所有存量房的資產(chǎn)價(jià)值變化規(guī)律,即在土地使用權(quán)出讓期限內(nèi),房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格隨著社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展和房地產(chǎn)需求的增加,會(huì)出現(xiàn)一段時(shí)期的上漲。隨著出讓剩余年限當(dāng)量的減少,上漲幅度逐漸放緩,并最終出現(xiàn)下降,直至出讓期限屆滿時(shí)價(jià)格趨近于零。在出讓周期內(nèi),前期上漲幅度越高,持續(xù)時(shí)間越長(zhǎng),在后期價(jià)格下降幅度越大,下降速度也越快,相應(yīng)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)也越大。且當(dāng)出讓土地供應(yīng)增量持續(xù)增加時(shí),土地剩余年限當(dāng)量平緩下降；當(dāng)出讓土地供應(yīng)增量持續(xù)遞減時(shí),土地剩余年限當(dāng)量將快速下降,這意味著商品房市場(chǎng)資產(chǎn)價(jià)值將快速進(jìn)入整體性貶值階段,亦即房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)系統(tǒng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)即將顯現(xiàn)。 由于我國(guó)商品房土地使用權(quán)尚處于一個(gè)完整出讓周期(70年)的前半時(shí)期,土地批租制下土地使用權(quán)剩余年限當(dāng)量對(duì)市場(chǎng)上房地產(chǎn)資產(chǎn)價(jià)格的影響不容易被察覺(jué),市場(chǎng)參與者既無(wú)清晰的理論認(rèn)識(shí),也無(wú)現(xiàn)實(shí)中的感性認(rèn)知。于是,市場(chǎng)參與者,包括宏觀政策的決策者和執(zhí)行者都高估了出讓期限內(nèi)存量商品房的資產(chǎn)價(jià)值,并據(jù)此進(jìn)行交易和投資。正是這種市場(chǎng)參與者的群體性非理性行為,積聚著房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的系統(tǒng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn),也影響了金融系統(tǒng)的安全。 為了實(shí)證房地產(chǎn)資產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動(dòng)與金融安全之間的關(guān)系,本文首先運(yùn)用因子分子法構(gòu)建了一個(gè)能夠較為綜合反映我國(guó)金融體系運(yùn)行狀況的金融安全指數(shù)(FSI),通過(guò)對(duì)照現(xiàn)實(shí),我們發(fā)現(xiàn)本文得出的FSI指數(shù)能較好地描述我國(guó)的現(xiàn)實(shí)金融安全狀況。因此,本文在此基礎(chǔ)上,利用我國(guó)20002013年的季度數(shù)據(jù)對(duì)房地產(chǎn)資產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動(dòng)與金融安全之間的關(guān)系進(jìn)行了實(shí)證分析,得到如下實(shí)證結(jié)果：一是房地產(chǎn)資產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動(dòng)會(huì)加劇我國(guó)金融安全狀況的波動(dòng),影響金融體系運(yùn)行的穩(wěn)定性；二是金融安全指數(shù)的波動(dòng)會(huì)顯著影響到房地產(chǎn)資產(chǎn)價(jià)格的波動(dòng),金融安全狀況的波動(dòng)量對(duì)房地產(chǎn)資產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動(dòng)的貢獻(xiàn)率達(dá)到75%；三是在土地批租制對(duì)房地產(chǎn)資產(chǎn)價(jià)格影響尚不明顯的背景下,實(shí)證結(jié)果已經(jīng)顯示了房地產(chǎn)資產(chǎn)價(jià)格波動(dòng)與金融安全顯著的負(fù)向相互影響關(guān)系,如果市場(chǎng)意識(shí)到土地批租制的影響,房地產(chǎn)資產(chǎn)將產(chǎn)生整體性貶值風(fēng)險(xiǎn),價(jià)格波動(dòng)對(duì)金融安全的負(fù)面影響將會(huì)更大。 根據(jù)理論分析與實(shí)證結(jié)果,本文提出改一次性收取70年土地出讓金的批租制為按年征收土地出讓金的年租制,以改變商品房資產(chǎn)內(nèi)在價(jià)值與市場(chǎng)價(jià)格的背離趨勢(shì),從根本上消除土地批租制下商品房資產(chǎn)整體貶值的系統(tǒng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn),同時(shí)還對(duì)我國(guó)金融安全指標(biāo)體系的構(gòu)建以及金融危機(jī)預(yù)警機(jī)制提出了相關(guān)建議。
[Abstract]:Under the support of the financial system, the real estate market of our country has experienced a rapid development for many years. The scale of investment, the scale of the transaction and the scale of credit have been increasing continuously. At the same time, the price of the real estate market has also gone up from the household income level, thus forming a certain range of price bubbles, which has caused the security of the financial system, and caused the security of the financial system. However, compared with the current real estate prices in a certain degree of bubble, the systematic risk that the real estate market price and the intrinsic value of the property caused by the land lease system deviate from the intrinsic value of the assets, the threat to the formation of the financial system is more serious.
Because the state system of urban land is carried out in China, the ownership of urban land and the right to use the land are separated and the right to use the land according to a certain number of years, which makes the investment value of the land use right less than the intrinsic value of the land assets, and decreases with the reduction of the year of the transfer until the expiration of the period of the transfer. It also means that the intrinsic value of the assets of the sale of the land commodity house is also close to zero when the land lease term approaches. In the long run, the price of any asset should be determined by its intrinsic value, and the commercial housing in the real estate market can not be excepted. The price of the property under the lease system should be diminishing with its intrinsic value. But in the real estate market, the real situation of real estate market is that under the background of sustained economic and financial system support, the price of the stock commodity house and new commercial housing is not restricted by the time of the land use right, and the real estate market price has a serious deviation from the intrinsic value of its assets.
On the basis of the analysis of the value of land use right and the change law of the value of the commercial housing assets, this paper puts forward the concept of "residual life equivalent" of the land use right, and examines the change law of the asset value of all the stock houses in the commodity housing market from the point of view of the overall market of the commodity housing market, that is, the real estate price follows the time limit of the land use right. With the development of social economy and the increase of real estate demand, it will rise for a period of time. With the reduction of the equivalent amount of the remainder, the rise is gradually slowing down and eventually falling, until the expiration of the sale period is close to zero. In the period of the selling period, the higher the increase, the longer the duration, and the later price. The greater the range, the faster the decline rate and the greater the risk. And when the land supply increment continues to increase, the amount of land remaining years will slow down; when the land supply increment continues to decrease, the amount of land surplus will decline rapidly, which means that the asset value of the commercial housing market will quickly enter into a holistic devaluation. The value stage, that is, the systemic risk of the real estate market is about to emerge.
As the land use right of China's commercial housing is still in the first half of the period of 70 years, the impact of land use right remaining time on the price of real estate assets on the market is not easy to be detected. Market participants have neither clear theoretical understanding nor realistic perceptual cognition. The decision-makers and implementers, including macro policy, overestimate the value of the asset value of the memory of the commercial housing, and carry on the transaction and investment accordingly. It is the collective irrational behavior of the market participants, which accumulates the systematic risk of the real estate market, and also affects the security of the financial system.
In order to demonstrate the relationship between the price fluctuation of real estate assets and the financial security, this paper first constructs a financial security index (FSI) which can reflect the operation of our financial system comprehensively by means of factor molecular method. Through the contrast reality, we find that the FSI index in this paper can describe the real financial security of our country better. Therefore, on the basis of this, this paper makes an empirical analysis on the relationship between the price fluctuation of real estate assets and the financial security by using the quarterly data of 20002013 years in China, and obtains the following empirical results: first, the fluctuation of real estate asset price will aggravate the fluctuation of the financial security situation in China and affect the stability of the financial system operation. The two is that the fluctuation of the financial safety index will significantly affect the fluctuation of the real estate asset price, the contribution rate of the volatility of the financial security situation to the real estate asset price fluctuation is 75%, and the three is that the real estate asset price fluctuation has shown the fluctuation of real estate assets under the background that the land rent system has no obvious influence on the real estate asset price. With the significant negative interaction relationship with financial security, if the market is aware of the impact of land lease system, real estate assets will produce overall devaluation risk, and the negative impact of price fluctuation on financial security will be greater.
According to the theoretical analysis and the empirical results, this paper proposes to change the renting system of land lease for 70 years as an annual rent system of land leasing, in order to change the deviant trend of the intrinsic value of the commercial housing assets and the market price, and to eliminate the systematic risk of the overall depreciation of the commercial housing assets under the land lease system, and also at the same time Some suggestions are put forward for the construction of China's financial security index system and financial crisis early warning mechanism.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江工商大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F299.23;F832

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本文編號(hào)：2009069