本文選題：匯率升值 + 經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)　； 參考：《江西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：中國(guó)在2005年開(kāi)始實(shí)行匯率制度改革，將人民幣匯率制度從盯住美元的固定匯率制度轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)橛泄芾淼母?dòng)匯率制度。這種重大的匯率制度變化勢(shì)必會(huì)對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展產(chǎn)生影響。截止到2012年，中國(guó)實(shí)際GDP增長(zhǎng)率出現(xiàn)了下降，并且出現(xiàn)通貨膨脹。除了需要考慮2008年的金融危機(jī)對(duì)于中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)所產(chǎn)生的負(fù)面影響外，，人民幣升值是否對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)同樣產(chǎn)生負(fù)面影響也值得關(guān)注。無(wú)獨(dú)有偶，日本在上世紀(jì)80年代末因“廣場(chǎng)協(xié)議”而導(dǎo)致日元大幅升值。此后，日本出現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)泡沫,并且在進(jìn)入90年代后，日本經(jīng)濟(jì)隨著泡沫的崩潰而出現(xiàn)了增長(zhǎng)放緩的情況。由此可見(jiàn)，中日兩國(guó)匯率升值似乎對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)存在負(fù)面影響。故本文將著重研究?jī)蓢?guó)匯率升值對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的負(fù)面影響是否存在，以及其影響程度。 本文以中、日兩國(guó)匯率升值對(duì)各自國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)影響為研究對(duì)象，首先回顧了中日兩國(guó)在匯率升值期間的經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù),然后通過(guò)理論分析闡述匯率對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制；通過(guò)實(shí)證分析，建立相應(yīng)的向量誤差修正模型，以量化分析匯率變動(dòng)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的直接影響。 在理論分析中，本文首先基于國(guó)民收入恒等式可知，影響經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的主要宏觀變量為消費(fèi)、政府購(gòu)買(mǎi)、國(guó)內(nèi)投資和外國(guó)直接投資，以及凈出口。然后，依次構(gòu)建消費(fèi)、外國(guó)直接投資和凈出口傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制,以闡述匯率升值如何影響這三個(gè)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)變量，進(jìn)而對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)產(chǎn)生間接作用。在實(shí)證分析中，本文首先分析了匯率傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制中所涉及的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)變量在中、日兩國(guó)各自匯率升值期間的實(shí)際表現(xiàn)，以求反映兩國(guó)匯率升值與各自國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)及其影響因素之間的關(guān)系。接著，本文分別選取了兩國(guó)匯率升值期間經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)的季度數(shù)據(jù)，建立了向量誤差修正模型，以求能夠分析匯率升值影響經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的短期和長(zhǎng)期效應(yīng)。 通過(guò)理論分析和實(shí)證分析，本文得出了主要結(jié)論：中、日兩國(guó)的匯率升值在長(zhǎng)期中會(huì)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)產(chǎn)生負(fù)面影響，但兩國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)受到匯率影響的程度不同。然而，在短期中，日元升值對(duì)日本經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)產(chǎn)生滯后的正面影響，而中國(guó)則表現(xiàn)為負(fù)面影響。因此，基于回顧日本在日元升值期間的經(jīng)濟(jì)政策及其實(shí)施效果，本文分別從外部經(jīng)濟(jì)政策和內(nèi)部經(jīng)濟(jì)政策角度分別提出相關(guān)政策建議。
[Abstract]:China began to reform its exchange rate system in 2005 . It has changed the RMB exchange rate system from the fixed exchange rate system pegged to the United States dollars into a managed floating exchange rate system . The real GDP growth rate of China has declined in 2012 , and inflation has occurred . In addition to the need to consider the negative impact of the 2008 financial crisis on China ' s economy , Japan ' s economy appears to have a negative impact on domestic economic growth . As a result , Japan ' s exchange rate appreciation seems to have a negative impact on domestic economic growth . Therefore , the paper will focus on whether the negative impact of the appreciation of the two countries on domestic economic growth exists , and the extent of its impact .

In this paper , the effects of exchange rate appreciation on domestic economic growth in China and Japan are studied . Firstly , the economic data of China and Japan during the exchange rate appreciation are reviewed , and then the mechanism of exchange rate on economic growth is explained by theoretical analysis .
Through the empirical analysis , the corresponding model of vector error correction is established to quantify the direct effect of the change of exchange rate on economic growth .

In the theoretical analysis , based on the national income identities , the main macroscopic variables that affect the economic growth are consumption , government purchase , domestic investment and foreign direct investment , and net exports . In this paper , we first analyze the actual performance of the macroeconomic variables involved in the exchange rate appreciation period , so as to reflect the relationship between the appreciation of the exchange rate and the respective domestic economic growth and their influencing factors . In the empirical analysis , the paper first analyzes the quarterly data of the economic indexes during the exchange rate appreciation of the two countries , and establishes the vector error correction model to analyze the short - term and long - term effects of the appreciation of the exchange rate on the economic growth .

Through theoretical analysis and empirical analysis , the main conclusions are drawn : China , Japan and Japan have a negative impact on economic growth in the long run , but the economic growth of the two countries is affected by the exchange rate . However , in the short - term , the appreciation of the yen has a positive impact on Japan ' s economic growth , while China has a negative impact . Therefore , based on the review of the economic policy and its implementation effect of Japan during the yen appreciation , this paper puts forward relevant policy recommendations from the external economic policy and the internal economic policy .
【學(xué)位授予單位】：江西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F124.1;F832.6;F224

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