本文選題：海峽兩岸 + 貨幣合作��； 參考：《南開(kāi)大學(xué)》2013年博士論文

【摘要】：區(qū)域貨幣合作是當(dāng)今世界經(jīng)濟(jì)和金融領(lǐng)域的核心問(wèn)題。對(duì)貨幣合作的研究最早可以追溯到1958年特里芬提出的單一國(guó)際貨幣的理論構(gòu)想,此后在蒙代爾等學(xué)者的不斷完善下,形成了現(xiàn)代一系列貨幣合作研究理論,其中最有代表意義的是最優(yōu)貨幣區(qū)理論(OCA)。該理論認(rèn)為,貨幣合作是一個(gè)由低級(jí)形態(tài)向高級(jí)形態(tài)演化、由松散型向緊密型發(fā)展的動(dòng)態(tài)過(guò)程,這個(gè)過(guò)程也稱為“貨幣一體化”過(guò)程,其最高形態(tài)是在區(qū)域內(nèi)達(dá)成單一貨幣流動(dòng)的貨幣同盟。該理論還認(rèn)為,貨幣合作的內(nèi)在動(dòng)力來(lái)源于貨幣合作伙伴之間日益緊密的經(jīng)濟(jì)關(guān)系,同時(shí)區(qū)域內(nèi)貨幣金融政策的更高層次融合,也會(huì)帶來(lái)區(qū)域整體的均衡和穩(wěn)定發(fā)展。 貨幣合作也是一個(gè)現(xiàn)實(shí)概念。越來(lái)越多的國(guó)家和地區(qū)就加強(qiáng)國(guó)際和區(qū)域貨幣合作的必要性和重要性達(dá)成了共識(shí),“一個(gè)國(guó)家,一種貨幣”的理念逐漸轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)椤耙粋�(gè)市場(chǎng),一種貨幣”的理念,1999年歐元的誕生、“泛美元化”在拉美等國(guó)的掀起、東亞地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟(jì)和貨幣整合都對(duì)此作出了實(shí)踐的詮釋。特別是1997年亞洲金融危機(jī)和2008年全球金融危機(jī)的爆發(fā),極大地提升各經(jīng)濟(jì)體對(duì)區(qū)域貨幣合作必要性的重視,研究貨幣合作問(wèn)題更具有必要性和現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 大陸和臺(tái)灣同處東亞地區(qū),在區(qū)域合作范疇上,海峽兩岸貨幣合作屬于東亞貨幣合作的子區(qū)域,但是由于兩岸關(guān)系的特殊性,在具體研究中兩岸貨幣合作往往被簡(jiǎn)化處理或直接忽略,到目前為止還沒(méi)有專門(mén)對(duì)兩岸貨幣合作領(lǐng)域進(jìn)行深入分析的論著,也無(wú)法形成有力的理論武器指導(dǎo)兩岸貨幣合作實(shí)踐。另一方面,2008年以來(lái)在和平發(fā)展主旋律下,兩岸初步形成了政經(jīng)互動(dòng)局面,商品貿(mào)易、人員和資金呈現(xiàn)頻繁而熱絡(luò)的互動(dòng)現(xiàn)象,兩岸金融監(jiān)管合作備忘錄(MOU)和貨幣清算協(xié)議簽署后,學(xué)術(shù)界、實(shí)業(yè)界和廣大民眾對(duì)海峽兩岸貨幣合作的期待日益強(qiáng)烈。在上述背景下,分析海峽兩岸貨幣合作問(wèn)題,不僅具有理論研究的前瞻性,也極具現(xiàn)實(shí)指導(dǎo)意義。 對(duì)兩岸貨幣合作的研究,本文是以最優(yōu)貨幣區(qū)理論為依據(jù),構(gòu)建了衡量海峽兩岸貨幣合作現(xiàn)實(shí)經(jīng)濟(jì)基礎(chǔ)的研究體系,探討了兩岸向更高階段進(jìn)行貨幣合作的可行性,指出了影響兩岸貨幣合作進(jìn)程的因素,并在對(duì)比分析全球主要區(qū)域貨幣合作實(shí)踐的基礎(chǔ)上,提出了兩岸貨幣合作進(jìn)程中可能的模式和路徑。全文共分七章。第一章導(dǎo)論,介紹研究背景、研究?jī)?nèi)容和研究方法。第二章理清貨幣合作的概念、內(nèi)容和進(jìn)程,初步分析兩岸貨幣合作的現(xiàn)狀和進(jìn)展。第三章對(duì)最優(yōu)貨幣區(qū)理論和相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)進(jìn)行綜述。第四章建立了衡量?jī)砂敦泿藕献鹘?jīng)濟(jì)基礎(chǔ)的研究體系,分析現(xiàn)階段兩岸貨幣合作向更高階段進(jìn)行的可能性,并甄別了影響貨幣合作進(jìn)程的主要經(jīng)濟(jì)因素。第五章對(duì)比分析了拉美國(guó)家“美元化”、歐洲單一貨幣和東亞貨幣合作三種實(shí)踐,總結(jié)經(jīng)驗(yàn)和啟示。第六章提出兩岸貨幣合作可能的模式和路徑,并提出相關(guān)政策建議。第七章是全文主要結(jié)論和進(jìn)一步研究方向。 通過(guò)對(duì)兩岸貨幣合作進(jìn)展和經(jīng)濟(jì)基礎(chǔ)的分析,文章得到如下觀點(diǎn)： 一、對(duì)海峽兩岸貨幣合作領(lǐng)域的現(xiàn)狀和進(jìn)展分析表明,目前兩岸處于貨幣合作的初級(jí)階段。若向更高層次的貨幣合作發(fā)展,需要克服的諸多問(wèn)題和困難。其中外部因素和內(nèi)部政治因素是最主要的影響因素。其影響表現(xiàn)在,以美國(guó)為代表的外部因素增加了貨幣合作的復(fù)雜性；東亞貨幣合作提供了“強(qiáng)政治”突破貨幣合作中經(jīng)濟(jì)障礙的經(jīng)驗(yàn)；兩岸之間政治關(guān)系決定了貨幣合作的走向。 二、依據(jù)最優(yōu)貨幣區(qū)理論,本文構(gòu)建了衡量?jī)砂敦泿藕献鹘?jīng)濟(jì)基礎(chǔ)的研究體系。該體系包括三個(gè)研究層次,分別是靜態(tài)單一指標(biāo)衡量、靜態(tài)OCA綜合指數(shù)模型衡量和動(dòng)態(tài)內(nèi)生性約束檢驗(yàn)。其中,靜態(tài)單一指標(biāo)衡量和靜態(tài)OCA綜合指數(shù)模型衡量?jī)烧叩姆治鼋Y(jié)果都表明,當(dāng)前兩岸基本不具備向貨幣合作較高階段進(jìn)行的經(jīng)濟(jì)基礎(chǔ)和前提。對(duì)“內(nèi)生性”動(dòng)態(tài)模型的檢驗(yàn)表明,宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)趨同性和以雙邊貿(mào)易聯(lián)系為指標(biāo)的經(jīng)濟(jì)合作日趨密切狀況,兩者存在明顯正向關(guān)系,滿足“內(nèi)生性”假說(shuō)約束,兩岸具備貨幣合作的長(zhǎng)期動(dòng)態(tài)約束條件,這意味著,現(xiàn)階段貨幣合作的成本將由建立貨幣區(qū)之后的收益彌補(bǔ),兩岸構(gòu)建最優(yōu)貨幣區(qū)從一個(gè)較長(zhǎng)時(shí)期而言仍是最佳選擇。 三、通過(guò)對(duì)兩岸貨幣合作經(jīng)濟(jì)基礎(chǔ)的考察,本文甄別了影響兩岸貨幣合作的影響因素。其中,兩岸經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模的差異較大和雙邊貿(mào)易聯(lián)系緊密是最主要的影響因素。更進(jìn)一步,前者導(dǎo)致了貨幣合作的成本,后者為貨幣合作帶來(lái)了收益。靜態(tài)分析的結(jié)果說(shuō)明,經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模差異較大造成的成本超過(guò)了貿(mào)易緊密帶來(lái)的收益,從而兩岸不具備貨幣合作向高階段進(jìn)行的條件。動(dòng)態(tài)分析結(jié)果則說(shuō)明,靜態(tài)狀態(tài)的凈成本將由貨幣區(qū)建立后的收益彌補(bǔ)。 四、在貨幣合作模式和路徑選擇方面,本文認(rèn)為人民幣可以作為兩岸貨幣合作的核心貨幣,一方面人民幣具備一定的區(qū)域影響力,人民幣國(guó)際化過(guò)程使其成為了準(zhǔn)國(guó)際貨幣,滿足核心貨幣的要求條件；另一方面人民幣國(guó)際化和兩岸貨幣合作兩者相輔相成、互相促進(jìn),選擇人民幣作為核心貨幣會(huì)進(jìn)一步豐富兩岸貨幣合作內(nèi)容,使其進(jìn)展進(jìn)行更順暢。在貨幣合作路徑選擇上,筆者認(rèn)為短期內(nèi),兩岸應(yīng)該在建立貨幣清算機(jī)制基礎(chǔ)上,繼續(xù)加強(qiáng)全面的經(jīng)濟(jì)聯(lián)系,建立信息交流機(jī)制,組建統(tǒng)一的機(jī)構(gòu)用于協(xié)商和討論金融監(jiān)控問(wèn)題,加快建立落實(shí)兩岸貨幣互換機(jī)制,加大支持兩岸經(jīng)貿(mào)往來(lái)中使用本幣的力度；在中長(zhǎng)期,則是推動(dòng)實(shí)現(xiàn)兩岸的匯率政策、貨幣政策的統(tǒng)一,從而達(dá)成兩岸貨幣一體化。最后,本文認(rèn)為貿(mào)易領(lǐng)域以人民幣結(jié)算和在臺(tái)建立人民幣離岸金融中心,是兩岸近期貨幣合作的主要內(nèi)容,并提出了相關(guān)建議。
[Abstract]:Regional monetary cooperation is the core issue in the economic and financial fields of the world. The research on monetary cooperation can be traced back to the theoretical conception of a single international currency put forward by Terry in 1958. After the continuous improvement of scholars such as Mundell, a series of modern theories of monetary cooperation have been formed. The most representative of which is the theory of monetary cooperation. The theory of optimal currency area (OCA). This theory holds that monetary cooperation is a dynamic process from a low-level form to an advanced form, from a loose to close development. This process is also called the "monetary integration" process. The highest form is a monetary union that reaches a single currency flow in the region. The internal impetus is derived from the increasingly close economic relations between the monetary partners, and the higher integration of monetary and financial policies in the region will also bring about a balanced and stable development of the regional overall.
Monetary cooperation is also a realistic concept. More and more countries and regions have reached consensus on the necessity and importance of strengthening international and regional monetary cooperation. The concept of "one country, one currency" is gradually transformed into the concept of "one market, one currency", the birth of the euro in 1999 and the "Pan dollar" in Latin America and other countries. The economic and monetary integration in East Asia has been interpreted in practice. In particular, the Asian financial crisis in 1997 and the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008 have greatly promoted the importance of the economic cooperation in the region to the necessity of regional monetary cooperation. It is more necessary and practical to study the issue of monetary cooperation.
The mainland and Taiwan are in the same region of East Asia. In the area of regional cooperation, the monetary cooperation between the two sides of the Taiwan Straits belongs to the subregion of East Asian monetary cooperation. However, because of the particularity of the cross-strait relations, the monetary cooperation between the two sides of the Taiwan Straits is often simplified or ignored. So far, there has not been an in-depth study on the field of monetary cooperation between the two sides. On the other hand, under the theme of peaceful development, the interaction between the two sides of the two sides of the Taiwan Straits has been formed under the theme of peaceful development since 2008. On the other hand, the interaction between the two sides of the two sides of the Taiwan Straits, commodity trade, the frequent and enthusiastic interaction of personnel and funds, the MOU and the monetary clearing Association After the signing, the academia, the industry and the masses are looking forward to the monetary cooperation between the two sides of the Taiwan Straits. In this context, the analysis of the cross straits monetary cooperation is not only forward-looking but also of practical guiding significance.
On the basis of the theory of optimal currency area, this paper builds a research system to measure the realistic economic basis of monetary cooperation between the two sides of the Taiwan Straits, discusses the feasibility of monetary cooperation between the two sides of the Taiwan Straits, points out the factors that affect the process of monetary cooperation between the two sides of the Straits, and compares and analyses the major regional currencies in the world. On the basis of cooperative practice, it puts forward the possible modes and paths in the process of Cross Straits monetary cooperation. The full text is divided into seven chapters. The first chapter is introduction, introducing the research background, research content and research methods. The second chapter clarifies the concept, content and process of monetary cooperation, and preliminarily analyzes the current situation and progress of monetary cooperation between the two sides of the Straits. The third chapter is on the optimal currency area. The fourth chapter sets up a research system to measure the economic basis of the monetary cooperation between the two sides of the Straits, analyzes the possibility of the currency cooperation in the present stage to a higher stage, and discriminating the main economic factors that affect the process of monetary cooperation. The fifth chapter compares and analyzes the "Dollarization" of Latin American countries and the single European currency in Latin America. And the three practices of monetary cooperation in East Asia, summing up experience and enlightenment. The sixth chapter puts forward the possible mode and path of Cross Straits monetary cooperation, and puts forward relevant policy suggestions. The seventh chapter is the main conclusion and further research direction of the full text.
Through the analysis of the progress and economic foundation of monetary cooperation between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, the following points are obtained:
First, the analysis of the current situation and progress in the field of monetary cooperation between the two sides of the Taiwan Straits shows that the two sides are at the primary stage of monetary cooperation. If they develop to a higher level of monetary cooperation, there are many problems and difficulties to be overcome. The external and internal political factors are the most important factors. External factors increase the complexity of monetary cooperation; East Asian monetary cooperation provides "strong politics" to break through the experience of economic barriers in monetary cooperation; the political relations between the two sides of the Straits determine the trend of monetary cooperation.
Two, based on the optimal currency area theory, this paper constructs a research system to measure the monetary basis of the cross-strait monetary cooperation. The system consists of three research levels, which are static single index measurement, static OCA comprehensive index model measurement and dynamic endogenous constraint test. Both the analysis results show that the current cross-Straits basically do not have the basic economic basis and prerequisite to the higher stage of monetary cooperation. The test of the dynamic model of "endogenous" shows that the economic cooperation of the macroeconomic convergence and bilateral trade relations is becoming increasingly close, and there is a clear positive relationship between the two and the "endogenous". "The hypothesis is constrained by the long-term dynamic constraints of monetary cooperation between the two sides, which means that the cost of monetary cooperation at this stage will be made up of the income after the establishment of the currency area, and the optimal currency area on both sides of the Straits is still the best choice for a long period of time.
Three, through the investigation of the monetary basis of the cross straits monetary cooperation, this paper identifies the influencing factors that affect the monetary cooperation between the two sides of the Straits. Among them, the large differences in the scale of the two sides of the Straits and the close relations of bilateral trade are the most important factors. Further, the former leads to the cost of monetary cooperation, the latter brings the income of monetary cooperation. The result of the analysis shows that the cost of large scale of economic scale is more than the income brought by trade, and the two sides do not have the conditions for the high stage of monetary cooperation. The dynamic analysis results show that the net cost of the static state will be made up by the income after the establishment of the currency area.
Four, in terms of the mode of monetary cooperation and the choice of path, the RMB can be the core currency of the monetary cooperation between the two sides. On the one hand, the RMB has certain regional influence. The process of RMB internationalization makes it a quasi international currency to meet the requirements of the core currency; on the other hand, RMB internationalization and cross straits currency. Cooperation both complement each other and promote each other. The choice of RMB as the core currency will further enrich the content of monetary cooperation between the two sides of the Taiwan Straits and make its progress more smooth. In the choice of monetary cooperation, the author believes that in the short term, the two sides should continue to strengthen comprehensive economic relations and establish an information exchange machine on the basis of the establishment of a monetary clearing mechanism. The establishment of a unified organization to negotiate and discuss financial monitoring and control problems, speed up the establishment and implementation of the cross straits currency exchange mechanism, and increase the support for the use of local currency in the cross straits economic and trade exchanges; in the middle and long term, it is to promote the exchange rate policy of the two sides, the unification of monetary policy and the integration of Cross Straits monetary integration. The RMB settlement and the establishment of offshore financial centers in Taiwan are the main contents of the recent monetary cooperation between the two sides, and relevant suggestions are put forward.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南開(kāi)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F822

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