發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-06-01 03:12

  本文選題：新常態(tài) + 貨幣供應(yīng)量�。� 參考：《華東交通大學(xué)》2016年碩士論文

【摘要】：2016年3月,李克強(qiáng)總理在政府工作報(bào)告中指出,今年經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的預(yù)期目標(biāo)為6.5-7.0%區(qū)間,進(jìn)一步預(yù)示著我國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長周期將由高速增長階段轉(zhuǎn)向中高速增長階段。自08年國際金融危機(jī)以來,生產(chǎn)成本上升、技術(shù)進(jìn)步方式變化、投資收益率下降、出口導(dǎo)向型增長不可持續(xù),這幾個(gè)因素使得中國經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)入了一個(gè)“新常態(tài)”。在經(jīng)濟(jì)“新常態(tài)”下,合理地選擇一個(gè)貨幣政策中間目標(biāo),是貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制能否有效運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn),進(jìn)而實(shí)現(xiàn)貨幣政策最終目標(biāo)的保證。就此,本文在基于現(xiàn)有貨幣政策的基礎(chǔ)上,對(duì)我國可選擇的貨幣政策中間目標(biāo)以及其對(duì)宏觀調(diào)控的效用進(jìn)行了較為詳細(xì)的研究和探討。論文以貨幣政策中間目標(biāo)的選擇為核心,首先,對(duì)國內(nèi)外學(xué)者關(guān)于貨幣政策中間目標(biāo)選擇的相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)進(jìn)行了綜述,過往文獻(xiàn)的研究主要是圍繞數(shù)量型中間目標(biāo)和價(jià)格型中間目標(biāo)的選擇爭論,這種爭論的理論來源是凱恩斯主義和貨幣主義的爭論,凱恩斯主義學(xué)派認(rèn)為利率是一國貨幣政策的核心,而貨幣主義學(xué)派則強(qiáng)調(diào)貨幣供應(yīng)量的作用;其次從理論層面對(duì)貨幣政策的中間目標(biāo)的相關(guān)理論進(jìn)行了詳細(xì)的闡述,包括貨幣政策中間目標(biāo)的相關(guān)概念、選擇標(biāo)準(zhǔn)以及貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)渠道理論�；仡櫫酥形鞣截泿耪叩难葸M(jìn)歷程。我國向來是以貨幣供應(yīng)量作為中間目標(biāo),而在“新常態(tài)”背景下,以利率為代表的價(jià)格型貨幣政策中間目標(biāo)是否更適合于我國實(shí)際情況,是本文的主要研究觀點(diǎn)。然后,根據(jù)我國經(jīng)濟(jì)“新常態(tài)”的基本經(jīng)濟(jì)情況,列出了我國當(dāng)前貨幣政策選擇所存在的問題。同時(shí),在遵循相關(guān)理論的原則下,遴選出符合我國現(xiàn)階段經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行下的價(jià)格型和數(shù)量型貨幣政策中間目標(biāo),如貨幣供應(yīng)量,一年期貸款基準(zhǔn)利率、SHIBOR以及匯率等。再次,在實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)中,樣本數(shù)據(jù)選取了2008年到2015年相關(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)變量的月度指標(biāo),構(gòu)建了VAR模型,利用廣義脈沖響應(yīng)和方差分解的方法考量了貨幣供應(yīng)量(M2)、貸款基準(zhǔn)利率、SHIBOR、匯率等指標(biāo),他們分別對(duì)GDP增長率、居民消費(fèi)品物價(jià)指數(shù)(CPI)的影響力和貢獻(xiàn)程度,即檢驗(yàn)了他們在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長和穩(wěn)定物價(jià)上是否有效。實(shí)證結(jié)果表明,一年期貸款基準(zhǔn)利率對(duì)GDP的影響程度最大,說明現(xiàn)有以貨幣供應(yīng)量為代表的數(shù)量型貨幣政策中間目標(biāo)值得商榷。而在穩(wěn)定物價(jià)方面,貨幣供應(yīng)量對(duì)CPI的影響較大,說明我國的利率等指標(biāo)在貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)上還不夠通暢,但其效用正在逐步增強(qiáng),價(jià)格型中間目標(biāo)在我國貨幣政策中的運(yùn)用將越來越重要。論文的最后為我國在“新常態(tài)”時(shí)期下的貨幣政策中間目標(biāo)選擇和提高貨幣政策有效性上提出了相關(guān)意見。
[Abstract]:In March 2016, Premier Li Keqiang pointed out in the government work report that the expected target of economic growth this year is 6.5-7.0% interval, which further indicates that China's economic growth cycle will turn from high growth stage to medium and high speed growth stage. Since the 08 years of the international financial crisis, the production has risen, the technological progress is changed, and the rate of return on investment is under the rate of return. Down, export oriented growth is not sustainable, these factors make China's economy enter a "new normal". Under the "new normal" economy, a reasonable choice of a monetary policy intermediate target is the guarantee of the effective operation of monetary policy transmission mechanism and the ultimate goal of monetary policy. On the basis of currency policy, this paper makes a more detailed study and Discussion on the intermediate target of our country's choice of monetary policy and its effect on the macro regulation. The thesis focuses on the choice of the intermediate targets of monetary policy. First, the literature of the domestic and foreign scholars on the choice of monetary policy intermediate targets is reviewed, and the past literature is used. The research is mainly about the selection of the intermediate targets and the middle target of the price type, which is the theoretical source of the debate between Keynes and monetarism. The Keynes school believes that the interest rate is the core of the monetary policy of a country, while the monetarist school emphasizes the role of the supply of currency. The relevant theories of the intermediate targets of the currency policy are elaborated in detail, including the related concepts of the intermediate targets of monetary policy, the selection criteria and the transmission channel theory of monetary policy. The evolution of the monetary policy in China and the west is reviewed. The main research point of this paper is whether the intermediate target of the price type monetary policy is more suitable for the actual situation of our country. Then, according to the basic economic situation of our country's "new normal" economy, this paper lists the existing problems in the choice of monetary policy in our country. The intermediate targets of price and quantitative monetary policy under the stage of stage economy, such as the money supply, the one-year loan benchmark interest rate, the SHIBOR and the exchange rate, etc. again, in the empirical test, the sample data selected the monthly index of the related economic variables from 2008 to 2015, and constructed the VAR model, using the generalized impulse response and the variance decomposition. The method examined the M2, the loan benchmark interest rate, the SHIBOR, the exchange rate and other indicators. Their influence and contribution to the growth rate of GDP and the consumer commodity price index (CPI) respectively, that is, whether they are effective in economic growth and price stability. The empirical results show that the one year loan benchmark interest rate has the most impact on the GDP. It is worth discussing the intermediate target of the quantitative monetary policy represented by the money supply. In the aspect of stabilizing the price, the influence of the money supply on the CPI is great, which indicates that the interest rate of our country is not smooth in the transmission of monetary policy, but its utility is being driven by Bu Zengqiang, the middle target of the price type is in China's monetary policy. The application of China will be more and more important. At the end of this paper, we put forward some suggestions on the choice of the middle target of monetary policy and the improvement of the effectiveness of monetary policy in the period of "new normal".
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華東交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號(hào)】：F822.0

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