發(fā)布時間：2018-05-14 01:37

  本文選題：金融危機(jī) + 政府參與��； 參考：《武漢大學(xué)》2013年博士論文

【摘要】：本文系統(tǒng)地分析了美國金融體系制度的根本缺陷。人為降低利息率和連續(xù)進(jìn)行的8個經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激計劃,使美國國債在短短四年內(nèi)增加了6萬多億美元。作者認(rèn)為在凱恩斯主義的經(jīng)濟(jì)理論的指導(dǎo)下,在遭遇經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)的時候,通過增加政府支出解決不了現(xiàn)代的債務(wù)危機(jī)；非生產(chǎn)性消費融資借來的錢若花在貨幣刺激政策上將導(dǎo)致美國的債務(wù)危機(jī)越來越難以解決。 本文列舉了主流經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家對2007年危機(jī)發(fā)生的原因分析和理解。前美聯(lián)儲主席格林斯潘于2008年國會聽證會上就金融危機(jī)作證時,承認(rèn)了他抗拒對金融市場監(jiān)管的做法有部份的過錯。投資者輕視風(fēng)險,政府一再減息,助漲房地產(chǎn)市場泡沫化,最后房地產(chǎn)市場崩潰拖垮了信貸市場,這是比較公認(rèn)的危機(jī)發(fā)生原因。作者認(rèn)為不僅要分析危機(jī)的起因,更重要的是要了解危機(jī)的根源,分析更具體的經(jīng)濟(jì)和貨幣政策的傳導(dǎo)產(chǎn)生的巨大負(fù)面影響。只有充分了解這些具體的經(jīng)濟(jì)和貨幣政策,才能夠更深入的理解已經(jīng)發(fā)生的危機(jī),才能預(yù)測其未來的趨勢,并在當(dāng)下對未來做好準(zhǔn)備。 關(guān)于金融危機(jī)的理論研究,共有兩大類有影響力的人,已經(jīng)贏得了全球的矚目。第一群人是凱恩斯經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)派的支持者,他們認(rèn)為危機(jī)發(fā)生的時候需要政府更多參與、控制和監(jiān)管經(jīng)濟(jì)運行,必須通過積極的財政政策擴(kuò)大信貸,刺激需求。第二群人,代表人物是米爾頓·弗里德曼(Milton Friedman)他們是古典經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的支持者,他們往往在危機(jī)時刻提出緊縮,用弗里德曼的話說,讓市場冷靜的最好辦法就是讓他去碰壁,而不是人為的降溫。另外還有較少的一群人,他們提出系統(tǒng)的改革,并非單純的更多或更少的政府干預(yù),更多或更少的金融法規(guī),他們建議采用新思路,試圖改變美國在全球經(jīng)濟(jì)體系中的地位。 正是這種迥異的理念決定了世界對上世紀(jì)30年代“羅斯福新政”歷史地位完全不同的兩種評價：凱恩斯主義認(rèn)為,羅斯福新政采取的擴(kuò)張性政策和干預(yù)措施防止了恐慌的進(jìn)一步蔓延,并通過恢復(fù)有效需求幫助美國走出蕭條；而貨幣主義者則認(rèn)為,正是因為政府的不當(dāng)干預(yù)和救助,擾亂了市場自身調(diào)整的周期,反而延緩了痛苦結(jié)束的時間,直到1939年二戰(zhàn)爆發(fā),美國才依靠戰(zhàn)爭帶來的繁榮擺脫了危機(jī),因此是戰(zhàn)爭而不是羅斯福新政讓美國走出蕭條。 對于中國而言,凱恩斯主義的指導(dǎo)性正在發(fā)生作用。1998年因為及時啟動的積極財政政策,使得波及亞洲的金融危機(jī)并沒有對中國實體經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生實質(zhì)性的影響。2008年底中國為應(yīng)對金融危機(jī)推出了4萬億元投資大單,4萬億救市政策可看做是凱恩斯主義藥效的最佳發(fā)揮。4萬億投資和2009年貨幣投放約9.6萬億元貸款,是配合刺激計劃所采取的“適度寬松”貨幣政策的體現(xiàn),似乎取得了抵御金融危機(jī)的“勝利”。 日本政府遵循西方的經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)劃,其中包括諾貝爾經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)獎得主保羅·克魯格曼(Paul Krugman)和美國聯(lián)邦儲備委員會主席本·伯南克(Ben Bernanke)的意見,大幅增加政府赤字支出超過20年,在將利率維持極低的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的同時,政府持續(xù)借貸和消費,投入基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施和其他政府計劃。結(jié)果是：兩個失去的十年。不斷增加的債務(wù)占國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的比例現(xiàn)已達(dá)250%。日本人儲蓄率從1990年的15%到如今的不到1%。美元作為世界儲備貨幣的地位允許美國不僅向自己的納稅人借債,還向全世界包括日本人借債。 美國政府顯然已經(jīng)選擇了跟隨約翰·梅納德·凱恩斯(John Maynard Keynes)的模型,實行規(guī)模的經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激支出,希望再次實現(xiàn)繁榮。當(dāng)然,在危機(jī)時期的刺激總是比緊縮政策更容易執(zhí)行。 為什么美國8個刺激計劃都沒有如政客之前許諾的那樣奏效?本文認(rèn)為,2007年開始的危機(jī)完全不同于1929年的大蕭條,大蕭條主要是快速的貨幣收縮引起的,而目前的情況是相反的�，F(xiàn)在政府選擇凱恩斯主義,除了看似能對經(jīng)濟(jì)取得短期刺激效果之外,更為深層的原因恐怕還在于,讓政府獲得更多和更廣泛干預(yù)經(jīng)濟(jì)的理論依據(jù)。凱恩斯主義關(guān)心的是短期問題,不關(guān)心長期問題。一項政策給這個國家的長期發(fā)展帶來傷害的時候,為什么還要堅持這樣的政策?唯一的理由是政治上的考慮。地方政府官員一般只考慮短期的事情,不考慮長期的事情,凱恩斯主義尤其適合只考慮短期利益的地方政府官員使用。 本文還進(jìn)一步論述,如果沒有世界的其他國家資助并持續(xù)增加購買美國國債,美國經(jīng)濟(jì)取得目前的狀態(tài)是不可能的。美債的危機(jī)除了降低美元地位,動搖世界對美國的信心外,也使得全球市場變得更加不明朗與不確定。截至2013年1月,外國政府持有的美國國債從2012年1月的5.056萬億美元增加至5.6165萬億,漲幅為11%,被壓抑的美元供應(yīng)和價格造成的扭曲,就像大壩不能永遠(yuǎn)阻止流動的水一樣,水壩在高壓下終將崩潰,美元擬或有同樣的命運。 本文全面詳細(xì)地介紹了美國8個經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激計劃,并評述了這8個計劃對國家債務(wù)、對企業(yè)、對教育、對其他各方面的深刻影響。還通過具體實例列舉了如家庭保暖工程、汽車補(bǔ)貼等計劃中存在極大的浪費性支出。 本文提出應(yīng)對危機(jī)的政策建議是降低企業(yè)稅負(fù)、降低福利水平、限制政府過度干預(yù)市場、吸引海外資金回流等。 本文撰寫的目的是讓讀者清晰地了解未來更大的危機(jī)是不可避免的,為什么會發(fā)生在美國,其原因是什么。目前正在持續(xù)的金融危機(jī)沒有簡單的解決方案,本文力圖以普通美國人的立場和較全而角度來描述危機(jī)的根源、影響和我們應(yīng)該采取的行動,以及采取不同行動帶來的后果。
[Abstract]:This paper systematically analyzes the fundamental defects of the American financial system system. The 8 economic stimulus plans to reduce the interest rate and continue to make the national debt increase more than $6 billion in four years. The author believes that under the guidance of Keynes's economic theory, the government expenditure is increased by increasing the government expenditure in the case of the economic crisis. No modern debt crisis can be solved; the money borrowed from non productive consumption financing will lead to an increasingly difficult debt crisis in the United States if it is spent on monetary stimulus.
This article lists the main economists' analysis and understanding of the causes of the crisis in 2007. When Greenspan, the former chairman of the Federal Reserve, testified on the financial crisis at the congressional hearing in 2008, he acknowledged his partial fault against financial market regulation. Investors despised risk, the government had repeatedly reduced interest rates and helped raise the bubble in the real estate market. The author believes that it is more important to understand the root of the crisis and to analyze the great negative effects of the more specific transmission of economic and monetary policy. Only to fully understand the specific economy and goods. The currency policy can better understand the crisis that has already happened before we can predict its future trend and prepare for the future at the moment.
There are two influential people in the theoretical study of the financial crisis, which have won global attention. The first group is a supporter of the Keynes School of economics. They believe that the crisis occurs when the government needs more government to participate, control and supervise the economic operation. It is necessary to expand credit through active fiscal policy and stimulate demand. Second The group, Milton Friedman (Milton Friedman), who is a supporter of classical economics, often crunch in a crisis time, and in Freedman's words, the best way to calm the market is to let him go to the wall rather than artificially cool it. There are also a small group of people who put forward a systematic reform. Not simply more or less government intervention, more or less financial regulations, and they suggest new ideas to try to change the position of the United States in the global economic system.
It is this disparate idea that determines the world's two different evaluation of the historical status of the "Roosevelt New Deal" in the 30s of last century: Keynes thought that the expansionary policies and interventions adopted by Roosevelt's new deal prevented the further spread of panic and helped the United States get out of the depression by restoring effective demand; and currency However, it was the government's improper intervention and assistance that disrupted the cycle of market adjustment and delayed the end of the pain. Until the outbreak of World War II in 1939, the United States relied on the prosperity of the war to get rid of the crisis, so it was war rather than Roosevelt's new deal to let the United States go out of the depression.
For China, the guidance of Keynes's doctrine is playing a role in.1998 years because of the active fiscal policy that is started in time, which makes the financial crisis in Asia do not have a substantial impact on the real economy of China. China has launched 4 trillion yuan investment in response to the financial crisis at the end of.2008, and the policy of 4 trillion saving the market can be seen as It was the best use of the Keynes doctrine to make the best use of.4 trillion investment and the money release of about 9 trillion and 600 billion yuan in 2009. It was the embodiment of the "moderately loose" monetary policy adopted in conjunction with the stimulus plan, which seemed to have won "victory" against the financial crisis.
The Japanese government follows western economic planning, including the Nobel prize winner Paul Krugman (Paul Krugman) and the Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke (Ben Bernanke), which significantly increased the government's deficit spending for more than 20 years, while maintaining a very low rate of interest rates, the government continued to borrow and consume. The result is two lost ten years. The ratio of increasing debt to gross domestic product has now reached 250%. Japanese savings rate from 15% in 1990 to less than 1%. today as a world reserve currency, allowing the United States to borrow not only to its own taxpayers but also to the world. It includes Japanese borrowing.
The US government has clearly chosen to follow John Maynard Cairns (John Maynard Keynes) model, carry out the scale of economic stimulus spending and hope to achieve prosperity again. Of course, the stimulus in the crisis is always easier to implement than the austerity policy.
Why did the 8 stimulus programs in the United States do not work as promised by politicians? In this paper, the crisis started in 2007 was quite different from the Great Depression of 1929. The great depression was mainly caused by rapid monetary contraction and the current situation was the opposite. Now the government chooses Keynes doctrine, in addition to the seemingly short term economy. In addition to the stimulus, the deeper reason is, perhaps, to give the government a theoretical basis for more and more extensive intervention in the economy. The Keynes doctrine is concerned with the short-term problems and does not care about the long-term problems. When a policy brings harm to the long-term development of the country, what should we insist on such a policy? The only reason is that Political considerations. Local government officials generally consider only short-term things and do not consider long term things. Keynes's doctrine is especially suitable for local government officials who only consider short-term interests.
It is further discussed that it is impossible for the US economy to achieve the present state without the support of other countries in the world and the continued increase of US Treasury bonds. In addition to reducing the dollar status and shaking the world's confidence in the United States, the US debt crisis has made the global market more uncertain and uncertain. As of January 2013, The government's government treasury bonds have increased to 5 trillion and 616 billion 500 million from $5 trillion and 56 billion in January 2012, up 11%, and the depressed dollar supply and price distortions, like the dams that can't stop the flow of water forever, will eventually collapse under high pressure, and the dollar is expected to have the same fate.
This paper gives a comprehensive and detailed introduction to 8 economic stimulus programs in the United States, and reviews the profound effects of these 8 plans on national debt, on enterprises, on education and in other aspects.
This paper puts forward policy recommendations to deal with the crisis by lowering corporate tax burden, reducing welfare level, limiting government's excessive intervention in the market and attracting overseas capital to flow back.
The purpose of this article is to give the reader a clear understanding of the future of a greater crisis that is inevitable, why it will happen in the United States, what is the reason. There is no simple solution to the current ongoing financial crisis. The action taken and the consequences of different actions.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：武漢大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F171.2;F837.12

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