本文選題：靜態(tài)均衡模型 + 通貨膨脹��； 參考：《西北師范大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：自人類(lèi)社會(huì)進(jìn)入商品經(jīng)濟(jì)時(shí)代后，伴隨著19世紀(jì)末經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的產(chǎn)生，通貨膨脹已成為世界經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的共生現(xiàn)象，通貨膨脹是反映宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行狀態(tài)是否穩(wěn)定的“晴雨表”，因此各國(guó)政府往往都密切關(guān)注通貨膨脹率的高低，對(duì)于通貨膨脹問(wèn)題的研究也成為世界經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)界和各國(guó)政府以及社會(huì)團(tuán)體研究的焦點(diǎn)課題之一。由于我國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展既處于工業(yè)化中期階段，同時(shí)又處于向全面的社會(huì)主義市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)軌時(shí)期，各類(lèi)因素互相作用影響，研究我國(guó)的通貨膨脹問(wèn)題顯得更為重要。全面客觀地分析我國(guó)通貨膨脹形成原因?qū)τ诒３治覈?guó)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)平穩(wěn)發(fā)展具有重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 在改革開(kāi)放以前，由于計(jì)劃經(jīng)濟(jì)體制的原因，我國(guó)尚未對(duì)通貨或膨脹問(wèn)題進(jìn)行相關(guān)的理論準(zhǔn)備和探索研究，但自1978年改革開(kāi)放后，中國(guó)經(jīng)歷了數(shù)次通貨膨脹，，不包括本文研究的2000—2012年的這次通貨膨脹。其中最典型的有四次，分別發(fā)生在1979—1980年、1984-1985年、1987—1989年和1992—1994年。2007年美國(guó)次貸危機(jī)引發(fā)的全球經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)自2008年9月份全面爆發(fā)后，各國(guó)政府紛紛推出各自的救市方案，我國(guó)也推出并實(shí)施了一系列的財(cái)政和貨幣政策，我國(guó)物價(jià)水平不斷上升，通貨膨脹的加劇對(duì)人民生活產(chǎn)生了巨大影響。進(jìn)入2009年8月之后，我國(guó)居民消費(fèi)價(jià)格指數(shù)持續(xù)攀升。自2010年以來(lái)，我國(guó)物價(jià)總水平出現(xiàn)了持續(xù)地上揚(yáng)。2010年7月我國(guó)居民消費(fèi)價(jià)格指數(shù)CPI突破了3％警戒線，11月CPI同比上漲5.1%，2011年1月CPI在權(quán)重有所調(diào)整的情況下同比漲4.9％，3月上漲到5.4%。7月更是達(dá)到6.5%之多�？梢�(jiàn)，新一階段的通貨膨脹已經(jīng)顯現(xiàn)。通貨膨脹問(wèn)題再次成為學(xué)術(shù)界和政府關(guān)注的焦點(diǎn)問(wèn)題。 本文從現(xiàn)代西方經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)中通貨膨脹最基本理論起步，通過(guò)回顧我國(guó)改革開(kāi)放以來(lái)的幾次通貨膨脹歷史，并對(duì)其特點(diǎn)和原因進(jìn)行分析；接著對(duì)2000—2011年以來(lái)新一輪通貨膨脹的特點(diǎn)和成因進(jìn)行定性和描述統(tǒng)計(jì)分析，然后運(yùn)用計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)基本方法對(duì)通貨膨脹進(jìn)行實(shí)證研究，對(duì)各因素進(jìn)行計(jì)量檢驗(yàn)，包括長(zhǎng)期一般均衡分析、單位根檢驗(yàn)，Granger因果檢驗(yàn)分析和VAR動(dòng)態(tài)模型分析：最后針對(duì)綜合得出的計(jì)量分析結(jié)果提出相應(yīng)的治理通貨膨脹的政策建議。本文的創(chuàng)新之處在于研究方法上和研究視角的創(chuàng)新，應(yīng)用文獻(xiàn)法，統(tǒng)計(jì)分析方法，規(guī)范分析和實(shí)證分析相結(jié)合的方法,另外現(xiàn)有的大多數(shù)文獻(xiàn)，大都是從通脹成因的某一類(lèi)型出發(fā)有所側(cè)重的選擇變量加以研究，缺乏綜合各種因素的實(shí)證分析。本文選取涵蓋需求、成本、預(yù)期和輸入型因素等諸多因素進(jìn)行全方位考察，并且加入最近一輪通脹的數(shù)據(jù)樣本，進(jìn)行了大量的定性分析與定量分析，在理論及實(shí)證方面形成了一個(gè)較為完整的體系，相互支持，相互印證，以期的到更加準(zhǔn)確和豐富的結(jié)論。
[Abstract]:Since the human society entered the era of commodity economy, with the emergence of economics at the end of the 19th century, inflation has become a symbiotic phenomenon in the development of world economy. Inflation is a "barometer" reflecting the stability of macroeconomic operation. Therefore, the governments of all countries often pay close attention to the inflation rate, and the study of inflation has become one of the focuses of the world economists, governments and social groups. Since the economic development of our country is not only in the middle stage of industrialization, but also in the period of transition to a comprehensive socialist market economy, various factors interact with each other, so it is more important to study the problem of inflation in our country. An overall and objective analysis of the causes of inflation in China is of great practical significance in maintaining the steady development of China's macro economy. Before the reform and opening up to the outside world, due to the reasons of the planned economic system, China has not yet carried out relevant theoretical preparations and explorations on currency or inflation problems. However, since 1978, China has experienced inflation for a number of times since the reform and opening up. This inflation does not include the 2000-2012 period studied in this paper. The most typical of the four occurred in 1979-1980, 1984-1985, 1987-1989 and 1992-1994. Since the global economic crisis triggered by the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States in 2007, after the full-scale outbreak of the crisis in September 2008, governments of various countries have launched their own rescue plans. China has also launched and implemented a series of fiscal and monetary policies. The price level of our country is rising, and the increase of inflation has a great impact on people's life. After entering August 2009, the consumer price index of our country continues to rise. Since 2010, China's consumer price index (CPI) broke through the 3% warning line in July 2010, CPI rose 5.1% in November from a year earlier, CPI rose 4.9% in January 2011, and rose to 5.4.7 months in March. More than 6.5%. Visible, the inflation of new stage already appeared. Inflation has once again become the focus of academic and government attention. This article starts from the most basic theory of inflation in modern western economics, through reviewing the history of inflation since China's reform and opening up, and analyzes its characteristics and reasons. Then the characteristics and causes of a new round of inflation from 2000 to 2011 are analyzed qualitatively and statistically, and then the econometric methods are used to carry out empirical research on inflation, and then carry out econometric tests on various factors. It includes long-term general equilibrium analysis, unit root test Granger causality test and VAR dynamic model analysis. The innovation of this paper lies in the innovation of research methods and perspectives, the application of literature method, the statistical analysis method, the combination of normative analysis and empirical analysis, and most of the existing literature. Most of the research is based on a certain type of inflation, lack of comprehensive empirical analysis of various factors. This paper selects many factors, including demand, cost, expectation and input factors, to conduct a comprehensive investigation, and adds the latest round of inflation data samples to carry out a large number of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis. In theory and empirical aspects formed a relatively complete system, mutual support, mutual confirmation, with a view to more accurate and rich conclusions.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西北師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F822.5;F224

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