本文選題：通貨膨脹預(yù)期 + SVAR�。� 參考：《南京大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：通貨膨脹預(yù)期在經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展中具有重要地位,近幾年來我國出現(xiàn)了幾次較大規(guī)模的通貨膨脹周期,對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的平穩(wěn)發(fā)展造成了巨大的影響。經(jīng)濟(jì)主體的預(yù)期能夠改變其現(xiàn)實(shí)中的行為,從而對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生影響。管理通貨膨脹預(yù)期對(duì)于穩(wěn)定通脹具有重要的意義,對(duì)通脹預(yù)期的研究有利于政策的制定和經(jīng)濟(jì)的平穩(wěn)發(fā)展。 本文在對(duì)通貨膨脹預(yù)期性質(zhì)及運(yùn)行機(jī)理的研究基礎(chǔ)上,運(yùn)用定性的中國人民銀行城鎮(zhèn)儲(chǔ)戶問卷調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù),通過差額法與改進(jìn)的概率法計(jì)算得出了我國通貨膨脹預(yù)期的具體大小。與實(shí)際通貨膨脹的比較,發(fā)現(xiàn)這一通貨膨脹預(yù)期能夠很好的表示實(shí)際通貨膨脹發(fā)展的趨勢(shì)與變化水平。在此數(shù)據(jù)基礎(chǔ)上,通過建立結(jié)構(gòu)向量自回歸模型(SVAR),對(duì)影響通貨膨脹預(yù)期的因素進(jìn)行了分析。在變量的選擇上,本文從宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策、資產(chǎn)價(jià)格以及成本推動(dòng)三個(gè)方面選取了產(chǎn)出缺口、實(shí)際通貨膨脹率、貨幣增長率、房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格、工資缺口以及石油價(jià)格等六個(gè)變量,通過Granger因果檢驗(yàn)、脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)以及方差分解,得出了有益的結(jié)論。 本文研究表明,在影響通貨膨脹預(yù)期的因素中,以產(chǎn)出缺口為代表的經(jīng)濟(jì)周期對(duì)預(yù)期影響最大；貨幣增長率對(duì)于預(yù)期影響時(shí)間最長；在長短期內(nèi),對(duì)于影響預(yù)期因素的重要程度是不同的；石油價(jià)格對(duì)于預(yù)期的重要性要遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過人們的想象；房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格是推動(dòng)人們對(duì)未來物價(jià)預(yù)期走高的原因之一,但是預(yù)期卻不能有效的改變房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格,這一結(jié)論能夠被政策性干預(yù)房價(jià)進(jìn)行有效解釋。同時(shí),預(yù)期具有自我實(shí)現(xiàn)的性質(zhì),上一期的預(yù)期對(duì)于本期的預(yù)期具有重大的影響。這些結(jié)論為宏觀當(dāng)局政策的制定提供了有效的事實(shí)基礎(chǔ),具有重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。
[Abstract]:Inflation expectation plays an important role in economic development. In recent years, there have been several large-scale inflation cycles in our country, which have a great impact on the steady development of economy. The expectation of the economic subject can change its behavior in reality, thus having an impact on the economy. The management of inflation expectation is of great significance for stabilizing inflation, and the study of inflation expectation is beneficial to the formulation of policy and the smooth development of economy. Based on the study of the nature and operation mechanism of inflation expectation, this paper uses the qualitative questionnaire data of urban depositors of the people's Bank of China to calculate the specific size of inflation expectations by using the difference method and the improved probability method. Compared with the actual inflation, it is found that this inflation expectation can well indicate the trend and the changing level of the real inflation. On the basis of these data, the factors influencing inflation expectation are analyzed by establishing the structural vector autoregressive model (SVARA). In the choice of variables, this paper selects six variables, including macroeconomic policy, asset price and cost promotion, such as output gap, real inflation rate, monetary growth rate, real estate price, wage gap and oil price. By Granger causality test, impulse response function and variance decomposition, some useful conclusions are obtained. The study shows that, among the factors influencing inflation expectations, the economic cycle, represented by the output gap, has the greatest impact on expectations; the monetary growth rate has the longest effect on expectations; and in the long and short term, The importance of factors affecting expectations is different; the importance of oil prices to expectations is far greater than people think; and real estate prices are one of the reasons that push people's expectations higher for the future. But the expectation can not change the real estate price effectively, this conclusion can be effectively explained by the policy intervention. At the same time, expectations are self-fulfilling, and the expectations of the previous period have a significant impact on the expectations of the current period. These conclusions provide an effective factual basis for the formulation of macro-authority policy and have important practical significance.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F822.5;F224

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 張宗新;張雪嬌;;產(chǎn)出缺口、貨幣缺口與通脹預(yù)期管理[J];財(cái)經(jīng)科學(xué);2010年11期

2 王維安;賀聰;;房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格與通貨膨脹預(yù)期[J];財(cái)經(jīng)研究;2005年12期

3 張有;;論通貨膨脹目標(biāo)制在中國的構(gòu)建[J];當(dāng)代經(jīng)濟(jì)管理;2008年05期

4 李永寧;;通貨膨脹預(yù)期形成、錨定:基于消費(fèi)者和經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家預(yù)期的分析[J];當(dāng)代經(jīng)濟(jì)科學(xué);2010年04期

5 車圣保;略論通貨膨脹預(yù)期對(duì)勞動(dòng)力市場的影響[J];價(jià)格月刊;2005年09期

6 趙留彥;;通貨膨脹預(yù)期與糧食價(jià)格動(dòng)態(tài)[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)科學(xué);2007年06期

7 李永寧;趙鈞;黃明皓;;經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家的通貨膨脹預(yù)期:理論與實(shí)證[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)理論與經(jīng)濟(jì)管理;2010年04期

8 張勇,范從來;論通貨緊縮預(yù)期的產(chǎn)出效應(yīng)[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)評(píng)論;2004年01期

9 劉元春;;中國通貨膨脹成因的近期研究及其缺陷[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)動(dòng)態(tài);2008年10期

10 張成思;;中國通脹慣性特征與貨幣政策啟示[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)研究;2008年02期

，

本文編號(hào)：1858539