本文選題：非常規(guī) + 貨幣政策　； 參考：《經(jīng)濟(jì)社會體制比較》2011年06期

【摘要】：全球金融危機(jī)爆發(fā)后,美國量化寬松貨幣政策的推出導(dǎo)致美聯(lián)儲資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表規(guī)模迅速擴(kuò)張。文章認(rèn)為,一旦未來美國經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)復(fù)蘇,美聯(lián)儲將會審慎地實行退市策略。退出的工具包括逆回購協(xié)議、定期存款憑證、超額準(zhǔn)備金利率、再貼現(xiàn)率和聯(lián)邦基金利率,以及債券資產(chǎn)出售。退出的次序是先動用數(shù)量工具吸收超額準(zhǔn)備金,之后收縮資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表,最后才是加息。雖然首次加息時間很可能是在出售債券資產(chǎn)之前,但如果沒有對資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表大幅收縮,美聯(lián)儲加息幅度不會太大,步伐也不會太快。在退出的過程中,美國債券利率將會上升,大宗商品價格出現(xiàn)回落,美元將步入階段性的升值軌道。
[Abstract]:In the wake of the global financial crisis, the introduction of quantitative easing led to a rapid expansion of the Fed's balance sheet.Once the U.S. economy continues to recover in the future, the Fed will proceed with a cautious delisting strategy, the article said.Exit instruments include reverse repurchase agreements, term certificates of deposit, interest rates on excess reserves, rediscount rates and federal funds rates, and bond asset sales.The order of exit is to use quantitative instruments to absorb excess reserves, then to shrink balance sheets, and finally to raise interest rates.While the first rate hike is likely to take place before the sale of bond assets, the Fed would not have raised interest rates much or too quickly without a sharp contraction in its balance sheet.In the process of withdrawal, U.S. bond interest rates will rise, commodity prices will fall, and the dollar will enter a gradual appreciation track.
【作者單位】： 中央財經(jīng)大學(xué)金融學(xué)院;
【基金】：教育部人文社會科學(xué)基金青年項目“通貨膨脹目標(biāo)制度下的貨幣政策規(guī)則:理論及其在中國的檢驗”(項目編號:08JC790108) 中央財經(jīng)大學(xué)211工程三期科研基金項目和中央財經(jīng)大學(xué)青年科研創(chuàng)新團(tuán)隊的資助
【分類號】：F827.12

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