本文選題：外匯儲備 + 貨幣供應量　； 參考：《新疆財經大學》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：外匯儲備是一個國家持有的國際儲備資產的重要組成部分，是一個國家經濟實力的象征。自從2001年末正式加入WTO以來，我國國際收支實現(xiàn)了長時期的雙順差，外匯儲備余額迅速躥升；同時期為對沖外匯儲備對國內貨幣供應量的影響，央行的貨幣政策操作逐漸轉向以發(fā)行中央銀行票據(jù)和頻繁調整法定存款準備金率為手段回收過量的流動性。2007年國際金融危機爆發(fā)后我國外匯儲備增速開始放緩；但是同時期我國的貨幣供應增速驚人，尤其是2009年廣義貨幣供應量（M2）增長率達到驚人的27.70%。進入2011年下半年，我國外匯儲備出現(xiàn)了極為罕見的季度下降，2012年上半年以月度計各月外匯儲備有升有降，以往外匯儲備單向增長的局面有所改變。隨著國內外經濟金融形勢變化導致外匯儲備變動的不確定性增加，，我國以往被動依賴外匯儲備增長注入流動性的貨幣供應方式可能出現(xiàn)趨勢性的改變。 本文即是在上述大的背景下研究外匯儲備影響我國貨幣供應量的問題。本文首先分析我國外匯儲備和貨幣供應量增長的階段性特征和背后的原因以及未來增長趨勢，進而根據(jù)外匯儲備影響貨幣供應量的理論基礎和影響機理，實證研究各個階段外匯儲備影響貨幣供應量的的特點并分析背后可能的原因，最后根據(jù)未來可以預見的經濟金融格局的深刻變化提出一些可行的對策建議。 以往大部分研究只關注到外匯儲備快速增長時期甚至以外匯儲備會持續(xù)單向增長為假設分析外匯儲備對我國貨幣供應量的影響。顯然，由于時間關系和現(xiàn)實經濟金融環(huán)境變化的影響，本文的研究背景和樣本數(shù)據(jù)更加豐富，研究結論和對策建議對未來也更有參考價值。本文的創(chuàng)新之處在于比較完整地分析了我國各個時期外匯儲備變動對貨幣供應量的影響，實證分析中運用較先進的非參數(shù)核分析方法對各時期劃分進行了較精確的判斷。最后在近年來國內外經濟金融形勢發(fā)生巨大變化的背景下，提出了未來調控的一些具體可行的對策建議：逐步實現(xiàn)國際收支平衡；增強人民幣匯率彈性；完善并合理運用發(fā)揮對沖作用的貨幣政策工具。
[Abstract]:The foreign exchange reserve is an important part of a country's holdings of international reserve assets, is a symbol of the strength of the national economy. Since the end of 2001 officially joined the WTO, China's international balance of payments surplus to achieve a long period of time, the balance of foreign exchange reserves rise during the same period; influence on impact of foreign exchange reserves on the domestic money supply the operation of monetary policy the central bank to gradually shift to issuance of central bank bills and frequent adjustment of the statutory deposit reserve ratio as a means of recovering excess liquidity.2007 years after the international financial crisis on China's foreign exchange reserves growth started to slow down; but at the same time China's money supply growth is amazing, especially in 2009, the broad money supply (M2) the growth rate of a staggering 27.70%. into the second half of 2011, China's foreign exchange reserves fell extremely rare in the quarter, the first half of 2012 to the month monthly foreign exchange The reserve was up and down, the foreign exchange reserves of unidirectional growth situation has changed. With the increase of foreign exchange reserves lead to changes in the domestic and international economic and financial situation of uncertainty, China's reliance on foreign exchange reserves into the money supply liquidity may appear the trend of change.
This paper is the influence of the foreign exchange reserves of China's money supply in the larger context of the problem. This paper analyzes the characteristics and reasons behind the supply of China's foreign exchange reserves and monetary growth and future growth trend, according to the impact of foreign exchange reserve money supply mechanism of theoretical basis and the impact of various stages an empirical study on the influence of the foreign exchange reserves the characteristics of money supply and the reasons behind may, according to the profound changes in the foreseeable future economic and financial situation and puts forward some feasible countermeasures and suggestions.
Most of the previous studies only pay attention to the rapid growth of foreign exchange reserves in foreign exchange reserves will continue even during the period of growth for the one-way hypothesis analysis of the impact of foreign exchange reserve on monetary supply in China. Obviously, due to the influence of time and reality of economic and financial environment changes, the research background and abundant sample data, conclusions and suggestions for future research it has better reference value. The innovation of this paper lies in the complete analysis of the different periods of China's foreign exchange reserves impact on money supply, the non parametric kernel analysis methods are more accurate judgment on the Period Division advanced by empirical analysis. Finally, in recent years, domestic and international economic and financial situation has undergone tremendous changes under the background, puts forward some feasible countermeasures and suggestions: to gradually realize the future regulation of the international balance of payments; enhance RMB exchange rate Flexibility; a monetary policy tool that consummate and rationally use hedging.

【學位授予單位】：新疆財經大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F832.6;F822.2

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