本文選題：經(jīng)濟(jì)周期　切入點(diǎn)：滯脹　出處：《國際貿(mào)易問題》2011年11期

【摘要】：中國經(jīng)濟(jì)已經(jīng)進(jìn)入了一個新的運(yùn)行周期,即長周期的開始階段,中長周期的下降階段,中周期的復(fù)蘇向擴(kuò)張的轉(zhuǎn)化階段,短周期的再次擴(kuò)張階段。當(dāng)前經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行的周期性特點(diǎn)決定了經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的放緩是一個必然趨勢,同時通貨膨脹也會繼續(xù)上行。中國在短期內(nèi)同時出現(xiàn)嚴(yán)重的停滯與通脹的可能極低,出現(xiàn)嚴(yán)重停滯與緩和通脹、或者是緩和的停滯與嚴(yán)重的通脹的可能性也較低,但是在中長期內(nèi)出現(xiàn)輕微停滯與通脹的可能卻非常高。政策含義是,中國亟需解決過去三十年來數(shù)量型經(jīng)濟(jì)增長模式遺留下來的結(jié)構(gòu)性欠賬,以人力資本投資為重點(diǎn),加強(qiáng)服務(wù)型政府的建設(shè)和推進(jìn)財政和金融體制改革。
[Abstract]:The Chinese economy has entered a new cycle, that is, the beginning stage of the long cycle, the declining stage of the medium and long cycle, and the stage of transformation from the recovery of the middle cycle to the expansion. The cyclical characteristics of the current economic operation determine that the slowdown of economic growth is an inevitable trend. At the same time, inflation will also continue to rise. In the short term, China will have both severe stagnation and the possibility of extremely low inflation, and the possibility of serious stagnation and moderate inflation, or moderate stagnation and severe inflation, is also lower. But the likelihood of slight stagnation and inflation in the medium to long term is very high. The policy implication is that China urgently needs to address the structural deficits left over from its quantitative economic growth model over the past three decades, with a focus on human capital investment. We will strengthen the construction of a service-oriented government and promote the reform of the financial and financial system.
【作者單位】： 北京大學(xué)光華管理學(xué)院;北京物資學(xué)院勞動科學(xué)與法律學(xué)院;
【基金】：北京城鄉(xiāng)創(chuàng)新發(fā)展博士研究會資助課題
【分類號】：F124;F822.5

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