發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-04-01 11:35

  本文選題：社會(huì)融資總量　切入點(diǎn)：新增人民幣貸款　出處：《天津財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：貨幣政策中介目標(biāo)這一概念自提出以來,就引起了國內(nèi)外學(xué)者的廣泛關(guān)注。由于其傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制的復(fù)雜性和時(shí)滯效應(yīng)的存在,因此必然需要中介目標(biāo)作為衡量貨幣政策作用的工具以判斷是否需要對其進(jìn)行調(diào)整及調(diào)整力度。長期以來,貨幣供給量M2和新增人民幣貸款一直是我國貨幣政策的重點(diǎn)監(jiān)測、分析指標(biāo)與對金融進(jìn)行調(diào)控的中介目標(biāo),且在對經(jīng)濟(jì)與金融協(xié)調(diào)性研究上更多地關(guān)注于新增人民幣貸款與各類經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)的相關(guān)性分析。但是,隨著我國經(jīng)濟(jì)的不斷向前發(fā)展,直接融資規(guī)模逐年增加,社會(huì)融資格局已然發(fā)生了深刻的變化,僅從銀行信貸角度判斷全社會(huì)的融資以及經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行過程中需要的投資額與流動(dòng)性規(guī)模已經(jīng)不能全面和準(zhǔn)確地判斷與評估實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的融資規(guī)模以及金融業(yè)向?qū)嶓w經(jīng)濟(jì)供應(yīng)資金的真實(shí)狀況,上述問題的存在可能會(huì)誤判經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢和貨幣環(huán)境,從而使宏觀政策制定出現(xiàn)偏差。中國人民銀行適時(shí)提出“保持合理的社會(huì)融資規(guī)�！�、“在宏觀調(diào)控中更加注重從社會(huì)融資總量的角度來衡量金融對經(jīng)濟(jì)的支持力度”,標(biāo)志著社會(huì)融資總量這一全新研究視角已正式進(jìn)入我國貨幣政策制定與操作的實(shí)踐。 基于此背景,本文從我國融資結(jié)構(gòu)變化對貨幣政策中介目標(biāo)選擇及調(diào)控效果的影響展開研究,旨在分析將其作為貨幣政策中介目標(biāo)的可行性及實(shí)踐意義,在此基礎(chǔ)上運(yùn)用Eviews6.0對相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行了實(shí)證分析,包括相關(guān)分析、平穩(wěn)性檢驗(yàn)、回歸分析、Johansen協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)和Granger因果分析,從定量分析角度驗(yàn)證將其作為貨幣政策中介目標(biāo)的可行性,并對如何完善社會(huì)融資總量統(tǒng)計(jì)體系提出建議,從而提高我國貨幣政策實(shí)施的有效性。
[Abstract]:Since the concept of intermediate target of monetary policy was put forward, it has attracted the attention of scholars both at home and abroad, because of the complexity of its transmission mechanism and the existence of time-delay effect. Therefore, it is necessary to use intermediary target as a tool to measure the role of monetary policy to judge whether or not it needs to be adjusted and adjusted. For a long time, M2 and new RMB loans have been the key monitoring of monetary policy in China. The analysis index and the intermediary target of financial regulation and control, and pay more attention to the correlation analysis of new RMB loan and all kinds of economic indicators in the research of economic and financial coordination. However, with the development of our country's economy, The scale of direct financing has increased year by year, and the pattern of social financing has undergone profound changes. Judging the financing of the whole society and the scale of investment and liquidity needed in the course of economic operation only from the angle of bank credit has not been able to judge and evaluate the financing scale of the real economy and the financial industry to the entity in a comprehensive and accurate way. The true state of the supply of funds, The existence of these problems may misjudge the economic situation and the monetary environment. The people's Bank of China proposed to "maintain a reasonable scale of social financing" and "pay more attention to measuring the financial support to the economy from the perspective of the total amount of social financing". It marks the new research perspective of the total amount of social financing, which has entered the practice of monetary policy formulation and operation in China. Based on this background, this paper studies the influence of the change of financing structure on the choice of monetary policy intermediary target and the effect of regulation and control in order to analyze the feasibility and practical significance of using it as the intermediate target of monetary policy. On the basis of this, we use Eviews6.0 to analyze the relevant data, including correlation analysis, smoothness test, regression analysis Johansen cointegration test and Granger causality analysis, to verify the feasibility of using them as monetary policy intermediary targets from the angle of quantitative analysis. It also puts forward some suggestions on how to improve the statistical system of the total amount of social financing so as to improve the effectiveness of the implementation of monetary policy in China.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：天津財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F832.4;F822.0

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本文編號：1695417