本文選題：影子銀行　切入點(diǎn)：銀行體系　出處：《南京師范大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)貨幣化程度的不斷提高,金融衍生工具的大量涌現(xiàn),影子銀行的規(guī)模也在迅速擴(kuò)張。影子銀行由于其內(nèi)生的期限錯(cuò)配和高杠桿特性,容易導(dǎo)致銀行體系的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。2007年爆發(fā)的全球金融危機(jī)暴露了影子銀行對(duì)銀行體系穩(wěn)定性的巨大破壞力。目前我國金融體系中銀行仍處于主導(dǎo)地位,銀行仍是我國金融體系的核心,金融危機(jī)的產(chǎn)生和發(fā)展必然與我國銀行體系存在著密切聯(lián)系。因此,探討影子銀行對(duì)我國銀行體系穩(wěn)定性的影響,將對(duì)我國銀行體系的穩(wěn)定和發(fā)展以及金融體系的穩(wěn)定和發(fā)展產(chǎn)生重要的意義。 本文采用定性分析和定量分析相結(jié)合的方法,在國內(nèi)外學(xué)者研究的基礎(chǔ)上較為全面地、系統(tǒng)地分析了影子銀行對(duì)我國銀行體系穩(wěn)定性帶來的消極和積極的影響。并采用1992-2010年的年度數(shù)據(jù)對(duì)中國影子銀行規(guī)模和銀行體系穩(wěn)定性進(jìn)行測(cè)度,結(jié)合OLS回歸模型、單位根檢驗(yàn)、協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)、格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn)和異方差檢驗(yàn)等計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)方法,在數(shù)據(jù)模擬的基礎(chǔ)上建立相應(yīng)模型實(shí)證研究兩者關(guān)系,結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn),影子銀行規(guī)模與銀行體系穩(wěn)定性之間存在閾值效應(yīng),當(dāng)影子銀行規(guī)模低于閾值時(shí),影子銀行的發(fā)展有利于提高銀行體系的穩(wěn)定性,相反則降低銀行體系的穩(wěn)定性。為此,本文認(rèn)為可以從以下幾個(gè)方面來規(guī)避影子銀行對(duì)銀行體系穩(wěn)定性的不利影響：加大改革,轉(zhuǎn)變觀念,鼓勵(lì)建立民間金融機(jī)構(gòu),使影子銀行合法化、陽光化；加強(qiáng)監(jiān)管,規(guī)范影子銀行經(jīng)營活動(dòng),定期采集相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù),防微杜漸,消除隱患；加快利率市場(chǎng)化,使利率政策充分發(fā)揮資金市場(chǎng)供求杠桿的作用,促進(jìn)正規(guī)金融機(jī)構(gòu)最大限度地吸收社會(huì)閑散資金；加強(qiáng)正規(guī)金融機(jī)構(gòu)對(duì)私營企業(yè)和個(gè)體工商戶的信貸支持,提高服務(wù)質(zhì)量,創(chuàng)新業(yè)務(wù)品種,完善擔(dān)保體系,從需求方面降低對(duì)影子銀行的信貸依賴程度；降低影子銀行的杠桿率；建立影子銀行監(jiān)管體系并加強(qiáng)影子銀行的信息披露要求；次級(jí)抵押貸款市場(chǎng)危機(jī)是美國此次金融危機(jī)爆發(fā)的根源,因此對(duì)根源風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的監(jiān)管是我國房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)目前發(fā)展階段必須要著重監(jiān)控的部分。
[Abstract]:With the development of economic monetization and the emergence of financial derivatives, the size of shadow banking is expanding rapidly. Risks to the banking system. The global financial crisis that broke out in 2007 exposed the enormous damage that shadow banking has done to the stability of the banking system. At present, banks are still dominant in our financial system, and banks are still the core of our financial system. The emergence and development of the financial crisis are bound to be closely related to the banking system in China. Therefore, the influence of shadow banking on the stability of the banking system in China is discussed. It will play an important role in the stability and development of the banking system and the financial system. This paper adopts the method of combining qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, on the basis of domestic and foreign scholars' research, it is comparatively comprehensive. This paper systematically analyzes the negative and positive effects of shadow banking on the stability of China's banking system, and uses the annual data from 1992 to 2010 to measure the scale and stability of China's shadow banking system, combining with the OLS regression model. The econometrics methods such as unit root test cointegration test Granger causality test and heteroscedasticity test are established on the basis of data simulation. There is a threshold effect between the size of shadow banks and the stability of the banking system. When the size of shadow banks is below the threshold, the development of shadow banks is conducive to improving the stability of the banking system, on the contrary, it reduces the stability of the banking system. This paper argues that the negative impact of shadow banking on the stability of the banking system can be avoided from the following aspects: to increase reform, to change ideas, to encourage the establishment of private financial institutions, to legalize shadow banking, to make it sunny, and to strengthen supervision. To standardize shadow banking operations, regularly collect relevant data, prevent the gradual development of the small scale and eliminate hidden dangers; speed up the marketization of interest rates, so that the interest rate policy can give full play to the role of the leverage of supply and demand in the capital market. To promote the maximum absorption of idle social funds by formal financial institutions; to strengthen the credit support provided by formal financial institutions to private enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households; to improve the quality of services; to innovate business types; and to improve the guarantee system. In terms of demand, we should reduce the credit dependence of shadow banks, reduce the leverage ratio of shadow banks, establish the supervision system of shadow banks and strengthen the information disclosure requirements of shadow banks. The subprime mortgage market crisis is the root of the outbreak of the financial crisis in the United States, so the supervision of the root cause risk is the part that our real estate market must focus on at the present stage of development.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F832.3

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本文編號(hào)：1691022