本文選題：中國制造業(yè)　切入點：制造業(yè)進出口　出處：《天津財經(jīng)大學》2013年博士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：作為影響—國內(nèi)外經(jīng)濟均衡的重要變量,匯率對一國對外貿(mào)易的影響一直是國內(nèi)外學者研究的重要領域之一。1994年中國實施了人民幣匯率制度改革,建立了單一的、有管理的浮動匯率制度。匯改后,隨著中國經(jīng)濟持續(xù)快速的增長,進出口貿(mào)易額不斷攀升,許多西方國家及利益集團認為人民幣存在嚴重低估,紛紛要求人民幣升值。2005年7月21日,中國人民銀行宣布實行“以市場供求為基礎的、參考一籃子貨幣匯率進行調(diào)節(jié)的、有管理的浮動匯率制”。此后,人民幣匯率不再盯住單一美元,匯率水平波幅放寬、波動性增強,表現(xiàn)出持續(xù)升值的狀態(tài)。截止到2012年10月末,人民幣兌美元匯率為6.30,相比2005年7月匯改之初已累計升值超過30%。有關人民幣匯率對中國對外貿(mào)易的影響研究在國內(nèi)外持續(xù)升溫。 在國民經(jīng)濟的各部門中,制造業(yè)是一個開放程度高,受匯率波動影響最直接的部門。自改革開放以來,中國制造業(yè)充分發(fā)揮比較優(yōu)勢,對外貿(mào)易得到迅猛發(fā)展,2010年成為僅次于美國的全球第二大工業(yè)制造國。然而近年來由于受到人民幣匯率持續(xù)升值的影響,制造業(yè)出口企業(yè)的利潤不斷被侵蝕,與此同時由于人民幣匯率彈性增強、浮動范圍不斷擴大,制造業(yè)企業(yè)面臨的匯率風險也日益增大,因此有必要深入研究人民幣匯率變動對中國制造業(yè)的影響。已有文獻多從匯率水平、匯率波動風險對進出口貿(mào)易展開分析,考慮到目前人民幣升值預期不斷加大的背景,論文將從人民幣匯率水平、匯率波動及匯率預期三方面的變動來探討匯率風險對中國制造業(yè)對外貿(mào)易的長、短期影響,不僅關注貿(mào)易總量、細分行業(yè)的變化,同時也關注制造業(yè)進出口結構的動態(tài)變化。論文的研究有助于了解匯率風險對各行業(yè)的影響廣度和影響深度,為實踐中產(chǎn)業(yè)結構的優(yōu)化和調(diào)整提供理論依據(jù),進而引導制造業(yè)改變要素供給優(yōu)勢、實現(xiàn)升級優(yōu)化。 論文分為6章。第1章為導論。在闡述選題背景和研究意義的基礎上,對相關理論和文獻綜述進行回顧,并介紹了論文研究思路及主要內(nèi)容,最后指出本文的創(chuàng)新與不足之處。 第2章基于比較優(yōu)勢視角分析中國制造業(yè)的發(fā)展狀況。分析結果表明,中國最具出口比較優(yōu)勢的制造業(yè)產(chǎn)品仍主要集中在勞動密集型產(chǎn)品,雖近年來該類產(chǎn)品的顯示性比較優(yōu)勢指數(shù)出現(xiàn)下降,但其比較優(yōu)勢仍十分明顯。部分高科技含量的制成品在世界市場上也具有一定的比較優(yōu)勢,有些產(chǎn)品還表現(xiàn)出較強或顯著的比較優(yōu)勢�？傮w而言,中國制造業(yè)比較優(yōu)勢更多地表現(xiàn)在勞動力要素方面,要素稟賦的升級一定程度上推動了貿(mào)易結構的優(yōu)化。 第3章主要分析開放經(jīng)濟下制造業(yè)面臨的匯率風險。在對趨近比較優(yōu)勢的人民幣匯率制度變遷分析的基礎上,采用巴拉薩—薩繆爾森效應對人民幣匯率變化與制造業(yè)的關系進行經(jīng)驗分析,結果表明制造業(yè)相對勞動生產(chǎn)率的提高在長期內(nèi)會加大人民幣實際匯率升值的壓力,巴拉薩—薩繆爾森效應在中國是成立的。本章對人民幣匯率風險進行了估計,并指出由于人民幣升值過程中波動幅度的不斷加大,其所帶來的匯率風險也日益對制造業(yè)的對外貿(mào)易產(chǎn)生較大影響。 第4章主要對人民幣匯率風險與制造業(yè)出口的動態(tài)關系進行實證分析�；谙M者和制造業(yè)出口廠商行為,從微觀層面構建了中國制造業(yè)出口理論模型,并從匯率不確定性角度引入?yún)R率波動風險和匯率預期。在具體分析中,采用誤差修正模型考察了人民幣匯率風險對制造業(yè)總出口、細分行業(yè)出口以及出口結構等方面的長、短期影響。結果表明：在長期中人民幣匯率水平變動和匯率波動風險對制造業(yè)總出口均產(chǎn)生顯著的負向影響,而人民幣匯率預期則對制造業(yè)的總出口產(chǎn)生顯著的促進作用,由此抵消了由匯率升值帶來的出口下降效應。從短期來看,匯率風險未對制造業(yè)出口表現(xiàn)出顯著負向影響。對于不同行業(yè)出口來說,無論長期還是短期,人民幣匯率水平、匯率風險及匯率預期的影響存在較大差異。從綜合影響來看,勞動密集型產(chǎn)品的出口受到的影響要比資本密集型產(chǎn)品的出口相對大一止匕 第5章主要對人民幣匯率風險與制造業(yè)進口的動態(tài)關系進行實證分析。首先從進口需求和進口供給兩方面構建了制造業(yè)進口理論模型,在此基礎上對人民幣匯率風險對制造業(yè)總進口、細分行業(yè)以及進口結構的長、短期影響進行估計。結果顯示：人民幣匯率升值、匯率波動風險的增強以及匯率升值預期的增加在長時期內(nèi)均會對制造業(yè)的總進口產(chǎn)生顯著的負向影響,而在短期內(nèi),人民幣匯率及人民幣匯率預期對制造業(yè)總進口的影響存在不確定性,匯率波動風險短期內(nèi)未表現(xiàn)出顯著負效應。另外,匯率升值以及匯率波動風險對勞動密集型產(chǎn)品進口的負向影響要略大于資本技術密集型產(chǎn)品的進口。對比第四章結果,人民幣匯率水平變動對中國制造業(yè)出口和進口的影響存在明顯的同向性,匯率波動風險大部分時候?qū)M出口表現(xiàn)出負向影響,匯率升值預期對進出口影響方向不一致。 第6章為主要結論及政策建議。本章對論文的主要觀點、結論等進行了全面總結,在此基礎上探討了制造業(yè)在適應比較優(yōu)勢的基礎上如何推動對外貿(mào)易的發(fā)展,并就如何進行匯率風險防范和管理,提出相應的政策建議與對策。 論文的創(chuàng)新工作主要體現(xiàn)在： (1)論文在探討中國制造業(yè)發(fā)展和人民幣匯率關系的基礎上,基于比較優(yōu)勢,從匯率風險的視角研究了其對中國制造業(yè)對外貿(mào)易的影響,間接討論了匯率風險對制造業(yè)發(fā)展的影響,相對來說這是一個新的視角。(2)在分析匯率風險對制造業(yè)對外貿(mào)易影響時,基于消費者和廠商行為的微觀視角分別構造了進出口理論模型,并拓展了影響進出口廠商行為的變量。不僅研究以往文獻中所考慮的匯率水平和匯率波動性風險變量,同時還將人民幣匯率預期所帶來的風險也納入到模型中。(3)從不同層次全面、系統(tǒng)地研究了制造業(yè)進出口與匯率風險等相關變量的動態(tài)關系,并認為匯率預期的引入有助于增強對現(xiàn)實經(jīng)濟的解釋力。
[Abstract]:As the influence of domestic economic balance of the important variables, the exchange rate impact on a country's foreign trade has been one of the important areas of research scholars at home and abroad.1994 Chinese implementation of the RMB exchange rate system reform, established a single, managed floating exchange rate system. After the reform, with China sustained and rapid economic growth, import export trade volume continues to rise, many western countries and interest groups that the RMB underestimated RMB appreciation, have.2005 year in July 21st, the people's Bank of China announced "based on market supply and demand with reference to a basket of currencies, exchange rate adjustment, managed floating exchange rate system". Since then, the RMB exchange rate is no longer pegged to the US dollar that exchange rate volatility relaxed, volatility increased, showing the continued appreciation of the state. As of 10 at the end of 2012, the RMB against the U.S. dollar exchange rate is 6.30, phase The study on the impact of RMB exchange rate on China's foreign trade has been warming up at home and abroad compared with the cumulative appreciation of more than 30%. at the beginning of the July 2005 remittance reform.
In the various sectors of the national economy, manufacturing industry is a high degree of openness, the impact of exchange rate fluctuations of the most direct department. Since the reform and opening up, Chinese manufacturing give full play to the comparative advantage of foreign trade has been developing rapidly, in 2010 after the United States to become the world's second largest manufacturing country. However, in recent years due to the impact of the RMB the exchange rate continued to rise, manufacturing export profits eroded at the same time, due to the flexibility of the RMB exchange rate floating increased, expanding the scope of manufacturing enterprises are facing the exchange rate risk is also increasing, so it is necessary to study the impact of RMB exchange rate changes to China manufacturing industry. The existing literature from the level of the exchange rate, exchange rate fluctuation risk analysis of import and export trade, taking into account the RMB appreciation is expected to continue to increase in the background, this paper from the level of RMB exchange rate, exchange rate The fluctuation of exchange rate expectations and three aspects to explore the changes of exchange rate risk on the China manufacturing foreign trade long, short-term impact, not only pay attention to the trade volume, changes in industry segments, but also concerned about the dynamic changes of the manufacturing industry import and export structure. The research is helpful to understand the exchange rate risk of the impact of the industry scope and influence depth, provide a theoretical basis for the optimization and adjustment of industrial structure in practice, and then guide the manufacturing industry to change the supply of factors of advantage, realize the optimization and upgrading.
The paper is divided into 6 chapters. The first chapter is the introduction. Based on the background and significance of the topic selection, the related theories and literature review are reviewed, and the research ideas and main contents of the paper are introduced. Finally, the innovation and shortcomings of this paper are pointed out.
The second chapter is based on the analysis of development condition Chinese comparative advantage in manufacturing industry perspective. The analysis results show that the China most comparative advantage in the export of manufactured products are still mainly concentrated in labor-intensive products, although in recent years the products showed the decline of comparative advantage index, but its comparative advantage is still very obvious. Some high-tech manufactured goods also has a comparative advantage in the world market, some products also showed a strong comparative advantage or significant. Overall, the comparative advantage of China manufacturing more performance in the labor factor, factor endowments have promoted the upgrading of trade structure optimization.
The third chapter mainly analyzes the facing manufacturing industry under open economy. The exchange rate risk analysis based on the RMB exchange rate system on the approach of comparative advantage, the relationship between Pakistan Lhasa - Samuelson effect on the RMB exchange rate changes and the manufacturing industry empirical analysis, results show that manufacturing relative labor productivity will increase the real exchange rate of RMB appreciation the pressure in the long term, Lhasa Pakistan - Samuelson effect is established in China. This chapter of the RMB exchange rate risk estimate, and points out that the fluctuation of RMB appreciation in the process of increasing the exchange rate risk also have a greater impact on the manufacturing industry is foreign trade.
An empirical analysis of the dynamic relationship between the fourth chapter of the RMB exchange rate risk and manufacturing exports. Consumer and manufacturing export based manufacturers, China manufacturing export theory model is constructed from the micro level, and the introduction of exchange rate volatility and exchange rate expectations from the perspective of exchange rate uncertainty. In the specific analysis, the error effects of total exports the RMB exchange rate risk of manufacturing industry segments correction model, export and export structure of the long, short-term effect. The results showed that the total exports in the long term RMB exchange rate level changes and the risk of exchange rate fluctuations on the manufacturing industry all has a significant negative effect, and the RMB exchange rate is expected to manufacturing industry total exports have a significant this role was offset by the appreciation of the exchange rate effect. The decline in exports in the short term, the exchange rate risk of manufacturing exports not shown significantly The negative effect of export. For different industries, regardless of long term or short term, the RMB exchange rate level, there is a big difference between the impact of exchange rate risk and exchange rate expectations. From the comprehensive effect, labor intensive products exports have been affected than capital intensive exports is relatively bigger than the fomer
An empirical analysis of the dynamic relationship between the fifth chapter of the RMB exchange rate risk and manufacturing imports from two aspects. Firstly, the demand for imports and import supply and build manufacturing import model, on the basis of the RMB exchange rate risk of manufacturing industry segments and total imports, the import structure of long, short term effects were estimated. The results showed: the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, increase the risk of exchange rate fluctuations and exchange rate appreciation is expected to increase in the long period of time will total imports to the manufacturing industry has a significant negative effect, but in the short term, the RMB exchange rate and RMB exchange rate is expected to affect the total import of manufacturing uncertainties, the risk of exchange rate fluctuations in the short term does not show the significant negative effect. In addition, the exchange rate appreciation and exchange rate volatility on labor-intensive products import negative effect is slightly larger than the capital and technology intensive production Comparing the fourth chapter, the result shows that the impact of RMB exchange rate level on the export and import of Chinese manufacturing industry is obvious. The risk of exchange rate fluctuation has a negative impact on import and export most of the time, and the expectation of exchange rate appreciation is not consistent with the direction of import and export.
The sixth chapter is the main conclusions and policy recommendations. This chapter of the main viewpoints of the paper, the conclusion is summarized, on the basis of the manufacturing industry in the comparative advantages on the basis of how to promote the development of foreign trade, and how to prevent and control the risk of exchange rate policy, put forward corresponding suggestions and countermeasures.
The innovative work of the paper is mainly reflected in the following:
(1) based on the study Chinese manufacturing industry development and the relationship between the RMB exchange rate, exchange rate risk based on comparative advantage, from the perspective of its impact on the Chinese manufacturing industry of foreign trade, discusses the indirect impact of exchange rate risk to the development of manufacturing industry, this is a relatively new perspective. (2) the analysis of the impact of foreign trade exchange rate risk for the manufacturing industry, the micro perspective of consumers and manufacturers are constructed based on the import and export model, and expand the influence of the import and export manufacturer behavior variables. Not only studies in literature by considering the exchange rate and exchange rate volatility risk variables, and will also be expected to RMB exchange rate risk is brought into the model. (3) comprehensively from different levels, systematically study the manufacturing industry import and export and exchange rate risk dynamic relationship between relevant variables, and that the expected exchange rate It helps to increase the explanatory power to the real economy.

【學位授予單位】：天津財經(jīng)大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F752.6;F832.6;F224

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