本文選題：中等收入陷阱　切入點(diǎn)：金融抑制　出處：《浙江大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：中國目前正在進(jìn)行的眾多改革之中,金融體制的改革是極其關(guān)鍵的一部分,也是正在積極探索的一部分。我國和大部分發(fā)展中國家一樣,都存在嚴(yán)重的“金融抑制”問題。具體表現(xiàn)政府對(duì)金融市場(chǎng)的嚴(yán)格管控,對(duì)利率匯率進(jìn)行人為的設(shè)定,通過行政命令,政府干預(yù)等非市場(chǎng)化的方式來分配金融資源�，F(xiàn)代金融發(fā)展理論,集中對(duì)發(fā)展中國家的金融抑制狀況進(jìn)行了研究,并得出了“金融深化”或稱“金融自由化”對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的促進(jìn)作用。然而,大量的國際經(jīng)驗(yàn)表明,大部分陷入“中等收入陷阱”的國家,并非沒有進(jìn)行金融自由化的改革,而是其金融體制的改革往往是失敗的；而與之相對(duì)應(yīng)的是,成功跨越“中等收入陷阱”的國家,其金融自由化的改革往往較為成功。 本研究將從金融抑制、金融自由化的視角,切入對(duì)我國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的研究,而“中等收入陷阱”是基于我國目前的發(fā)展階段提出的特有的增長問題。本文將利率市場(chǎng)化作為整個(gè)研究的線索,通過分析金融抑制帶來的經(jīng)濟(jì)損失以及我國金融抑制與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長之間的關(guān)系,來回答這樣三個(gè)問題：1)金融抑制與我國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長之間具有怎樣的關(guān)系?2)是否已經(jīng)到了實(shí)施金融自由化全面改革的時(shí)點(diǎn)?3)金融自由化如何安排才能保證我國成功跨越“中等收入陷阱”,從而保持經(jīng)濟(jì)的持續(xù)發(fā)展? 本文從理論角度討論了金融抑制對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長影響的正負(fù)兩方面的效應(yīng)。首先基于Galbis的金融發(fā)展模型,進(jìn)行了與我國國情相適應(yīng)的修正,并得到了一個(gè)兩部門金融-經(jīng)濟(jì)增長模型。從低利率和信貸配額角度,說明了金融抑制對(duì)中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的負(fù)面影響,反面支持了金融自由化對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)長期增長的作用,并得出政府應(yīng)該實(shí)行利率市場(chǎng)化的改革,以提高資本的利用率和收益率,提高投資質(zhì)量。然后主要通過對(duì)投資需求曲線的討論,本文提出了金融抑制對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長也可能存在正面的作用,以此來說明中國已經(jīng)取得的高速增長的事實(shí)。 在此基礎(chǔ)上,本研究借鑒Fry的金融發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長計(jì)量模型,根據(jù)中國最近30年數(shù)據(jù)的計(jì)量數(shù)據(jù)與結(jié)果,得到了與前人理論結(jié)果不一致的結(jié)論,即我國的發(fā)展路徑與20世紀(jì)70年代眾多陷入“中等收入陷阱”的國家并不完全吻合。主要表現(xiàn)在,低存款利率的限制對(duì)中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率的影響并沒有那么大,以及中國的國內(nèi)儲(chǔ)蓄率并沒有因?yàn)榈屠识档?而后者在一定程度上能夠?yàn)榍罢叩默F(xiàn)象作出解釋。本文以此為基礎(chǔ)進(jìn)一步進(jìn)行了分析,得出我國目前處在的中等收入階段正是改變金融抑制,進(jìn)行金融自由化的最佳階段,而在這一階段控制好改革的時(shí)間節(jié)點(diǎn)與步驟安排是確保中國成功跨越“中等收入陷阱”的關(guān)鍵,本文在最后提出了時(shí)點(diǎn)控制的框架,以期為我國實(shí)行金融自由化改革提供政策參考與建議。
[Abstract]:Among the many reforms currently under way in China, the reform of the financial system is an extremely critical part and a part of active exploration. China, like most developing countries, There are serious problems of "financial repression". The specific manifestation of the government's strict control of the financial market, the artificial setting of interest rates and exchange rates, and the adoption of executive orders, Government intervention and other non-market-oriented ways to allocate financial resources. Modern financial development theory focuses on financial repression in developing countries. And the contribution of "financial deepening", or "financial liberalization", to economic development. However, a great deal of international experience shows that most of the countries that fall into the "middle-income trap" are not without financial liberalization reforms, It is that the reform of its financial system is often unsuccessful, and that the reform of financial liberalization is often more successful in countries that have successfully crossed the "middle-income trap". From the perspective of financial suppression and financial liberalization, this study will focus on the study of China's economic growth. The "middle income trap" is based on the unique growth problem raised at the present stage of development in China. This paper takes the marketization of interest rate as the clue of the whole research. By analyzing the economic losses caused by financial repression and the relationship between financial repression and economic growth in China, this paper answers these three questions: 1) what is the relationship between financial repression and economic growth in China? 2) has the time come to implement comprehensive financial liberalization reforms? 3) how can financial liberalization be arranged to ensure that China can successfully overcome the "middle-income trap" and thus maintain the sustained economic development? This paper discusses the positive and negative effects of financial repression on economic growth from a theoretical point of view. Firstly, based on the financial development model of Galbis, this paper makes a revision to suit the situation of our country. From the perspective of low interest rate and credit quota, this paper illustrates the negative impact of financial repression on China's economic growth and supports the role of financial liberalization in long-term economic growth. It is concluded that the government should carry out the reform of interest rate marketization in order to improve the utilization rate and yield of capital and improve the quality of investment. This paper suggests that financial repression may also have a positive effect on economic growth to illustrate the fact that China has achieved rapid growth. On this basis, this study draws lessons from Fry's econometric model of financial development and economic growth, according to the measurement data and results of the last 30 years in China, and draws the conclusion that it is inconsistent with the previous theoretical results. That is, China's development path does not fully coincide with the many countries caught in the "middle-income trap" in 1970s. The main manifestation is that the restrictions on low deposit interest rates do not have so much impact on China's economic growth rate. And China's domestic savings rate has not been reduced because of low interest rates, and the latter can to some extent explain the former phenomenon. We can draw a conclusion that the middle income stage that our country is currently in is the best stage for changing financial repression and carrying out financial liberalization. In this stage, controlling the time node and the arrangement of steps is the key to ensure that China can successfully cross the "middle income trap". In the end, this paper puts forward the framework of time point control. In order to carry out financial liberalization reform in China to provide policy reference and recommendations.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F832;F124

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