本文選題：外匯儲(chǔ)備　切入點(diǎn)：貨幣供給　出處：《山東大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：隨著我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)快速增長(zhǎng)和對(duì)外開放的力度加大,我國(guó)外匯儲(chǔ)備迅猛增加,特別是1994年外匯體制改革以來,我國(guó)外匯儲(chǔ)備迎來了高速增長(zhǎng)。截至2012年底,國(guó)家外匯儲(chǔ)備余額為3.31萬億美元。外匯儲(chǔ)備是衡量一國(guó)綜合國(guó)力的主要指標(biāo)之一,肩負(fù)著調(diào)節(jié)國(guó)際收支、穩(wěn)定匯率的重任。因此,適度的外匯儲(chǔ)備規(guī)模對(duì)一個(gè)國(guó)家的經(jīng)濟(jì)安全至關(guān)重要。然而,外匯儲(chǔ)備的過度增加,則對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來諸多不利影響。其中,最為顯著的是外匯儲(chǔ)備通過貨幣供給渠道對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)物價(jià)產(chǎn)生的不利影響。本文以外匯儲(chǔ)備為起始點(diǎn),研究其對(duì)中國(guó)貨幣供給狀況的影響途徑,進(jìn)而發(fā)現(xiàn)外匯儲(chǔ)備通過貨幣供給對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)物價(jià)產(chǎn)生沖擊的作用機(jī)制。 本文運(yùn)用規(guī)范分析和實(shí)證分析相結(jié)合的方法對(duì)外匯儲(chǔ)備通過貨幣供給渠道對(duì)物價(jià)產(chǎn)生的影響進(jìn)行了系統(tǒng)、科學(xué)的研究。理論方面,本文首先分析了外匯儲(chǔ)備對(duì)貨幣供給量、貨幣供給內(nèi)生性及貨幣供給結(jié)構(gòu)的影響：隨著外匯儲(chǔ)備的不斷增加,外匯占款逐漸成為基礎(chǔ)貨幣發(fā)放的主要渠道,在導(dǎo)致貨幣供給量倍數(shù)擴(kuò)張的同時(shí),也增加了貨幣供給的內(nèi)生性,而且加劇了貨幣供給結(jié)構(gòu)的地區(qū)不平衡現(xiàn)象；此外,針對(duì)外匯儲(chǔ)備對(duì)貨幣供給的上述三個(gè)影響渠道,本文分析了外匯儲(chǔ)備經(jīng)由貨幣供給對(duì)物價(jià)的影響機(jī)制。實(shí)證方面,本文選取了2001年1月-2012年12月的月度經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù),通過計(jì)量分析發(fā)現(xiàn)：貨幣供給和物價(jià)水平之間的關(guān)系是正相關(guān)的,貨幣供應(yīng)量每增加1%就會(huì)使物價(jià)指數(shù)上漲1.68%；外匯儲(chǔ)備和物價(jià)水平之間也存在正相關(guān)關(guān)系,外匯儲(chǔ)備每增加1%,物價(jià)水平會(huì)隨之上漲0.93%。這也表明外匯儲(chǔ)備除了通過貨幣供給這一渠道影響物價(jià)水平外,還通過其他方式影響物價(jià)水平。 最后,針對(duì)以上理論分析和實(shí)證分析,得出要想緩解外匯儲(chǔ)備對(duì)物價(jià)的影響,主要在于解決外匯儲(chǔ)備對(duì)貨幣供給的剛性作用機(jī)制,并據(jù)此提出相關(guān)的政策建議。首先,通過分析我國(guó)外匯儲(chǔ)備過度增長(zhǎng)的原因,采取措施,從源頭上控制外匯儲(chǔ)備的增長(zhǎng)；其次,對(duì)于已經(jīng)形成的巨額外匯儲(chǔ)備,要拓寬其利用渠道,以分散其對(duì)貨幣供給的影響力度；再次,分析外匯儲(chǔ)備與貨幣供給之間剛性聯(lián)系機(jī)制的原因,并提出措施緩解這一直接的作用機(jī)制；最后,分析我國(guó)目前采取的外匯沖銷策略,并提出相應(yīng)的完善措施,提升沖銷效果。
[Abstract]:With China's rapid economic growth and opening up efforts to increase China's rapid increase in foreign exchange reserves, especially since the reform of foreign exchange system in 1994, China's foreign exchange reserves ushered in rapid growth. By the end of 2012, the country's foreign exchange reserves amounted to $3 trillion and 310 billion. The foreign exchange reserve is one of the main indicators to measure a country's comprehensive national strength, shoulder the task of adjusting international balance, a stable exchange rate. Therefore, the moderate scale of foreign exchange reserve is crucial to a country's economic security. However, the excessive increase of foreign exchange reserves, the China economy brings many adverse effects. Among them, the most significant is the unfavorable impact of foreign exchange reserves through the money supply on the domestic price generated. In this paper, the foreign exchange reserves as a starting point, to study its effect on money supply in Chinese way, and found that foreign exchange reserves through the money supply on the domestic price of The mechanism of impact.
This paper uses the method of combining normative analysis and empirical analysis of the effect on foreign exchange reserves through the money supply on prices generated by scientific research. In theory, this paper analyzes the foreign exchange reserves on money supply, and the effect of endogenous money supply in the money supply structure: with the increasing of foreign exchange reserves, foreign exchange exchange has gradually become the main channel of base money issuance, resulting in money supply multiple expansion at the same time, also increased the endogeneity of money supply, but also exacerbated the regional imbalance phenomenon of money supply structure; in addition, the foreign exchange reserve on the money supply of the three channels of influence, this paper analyzes the foreign exchange reserves through the money supply on the price influence mechanism. The empirical analysis, selected monthly economic data in January 2001 -2012 year in December, through the econometric analysis found: goods The relationship between money supply and price level is positively related to the money supply, every 1% increase will make the price index rose 1.68%; there is a positive correlation between foreign exchange reserves and the price level, each increase of 1% of foreign exchange reserves, the price level will rise 0.93%., this also shows that the foreign exchange reserves in addition to the money supply through this channel, the impact of price level, in other ways affect the price level.
Finally, based on the above theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, that in order to alleviate the impact of foreign exchange reserves on prices, mainly aimed at solving the rigid mechanism of foreign exchange reserve on the money supply, and puts forward some policy recommendations. Firstly, through the analysis of reasons, excessive growth of China's foreign exchange reserves to take measures to control the source of foreign exchange reserves growth; secondly, the formation of large foreign exchange reserves, to broaden the use of channels, efforts to diversify its influence on money supply; thirdly, analysis between foreign exchange reserves and money supply mechanism of the rigid connection, and put forward the measures to alleviate the direct mechanism; finally, analysis of foreign exchange strategy in China take at present, and put forward the corresponding improvement measures, enhance the sterilization effect.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：山東大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F832.6;F726

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