本文選題：人民幣匯率　切入點(diǎn)：進(jìn)口價(jià)格　出處：《寧波大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：匯率是國際貿(mào)易運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)的核心，，其變動(dòng)對(duì)貿(mào)易方向和貿(mào)易規(guī)模起著導(dǎo)向標(biāo)的作用；進(jìn)口價(jià)格是聯(lián)通匯率和國內(nèi)物價(jià)的關(guān)鍵環(huán)節(jié)，且匯率波動(dòng)主要是通過進(jìn)口價(jià)格對(duì)國內(nèi)物價(jià)產(chǎn)生影響；而經(jīng)濟(jì)體內(nèi)部物價(jià)的變動(dòng)不僅影響著匯率的動(dòng)向，也深深的影響著經(jīng)濟(jì)體對(duì)進(jìn)口產(chǎn)品的需求。在分析匯率、進(jìn)口價(jià)格與國內(nèi)物價(jià)的關(guān)系時(shí)，一般從匯率傳導(dǎo)效應(yīng)的角度出發(fā)，本文也試著從匯率傳導(dǎo)效應(yīng)的角度就匯率對(duì)進(jìn)口價(jià)格和國內(nèi)物價(jià)的影響進(jìn)行分析。根據(jù)一單位的匯率變動(dòng)能否引起等量的價(jià)格變化，可以將匯率傳導(dǎo)效應(yīng)分為完全傳導(dǎo)和不完全傳導(dǎo)。在封閉的經(jīng)濟(jì)體內(nèi)，匯率對(duì)物價(jià)的影響可以忽略，即匯率對(duì)物價(jià)的傳導(dǎo)效應(yīng)不存在；在開放的經(jīng)濟(jì)體內(nèi)，匯率的波動(dòng)可以引起物價(jià)的等量變動(dòng)，即匯率對(duì)物價(jià)的傳導(dǎo)效應(yīng)是完全的。目前，中國經(jīng)濟(jì)處于轉(zhuǎn)型階段，經(jīng)濟(jì)的開放程度不斷增強(qiáng)。在人民幣匯率市場(chǎng)化程度提高、匯率波動(dòng)幅度增大的背景下，匯率傳導(dǎo)效應(yīng)不斷增強(qiáng)，鑒于此，分析人民幣匯率波動(dòng)對(duì)進(jìn)口價(jià)格和中國物價(jià)的傳導(dǎo)效應(yīng)，對(duì)控制中國的通脹、制定合適的貨幣政策有著重要的意義。 文章第一部分，主要是提出問題，對(duì)匯率傳導(dǎo)的相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)進(jìn)行了歸納，從國外研究和國內(nèi)研究?jī)煞矫嬲归_，并對(duì)研究意義進(jìn)行了闡述；第二部分，在定義匯率傳導(dǎo)概念、歸納匯率傳導(dǎo)類型的基礎(chǔ)上，就人民幣匯率波動(dòng)對(duì)物價(jià)傳導(dǎo)效應(yīng)的具體機(jī)制方面進(jìn)行了闡述；第三部分在描述人民幣匯率、進(jìn)口價(jià)格和物價(jià)變動(dòng)情況的基礎(chǔ)上，分析了三者之間的關(guān)系；第四部分，基于2005年7月至2011年12月的月度數(shù)據(jù)，選取了貨幣供應(yīng)量、貿(mào)易開放度、人民幣匯率及國內(nèi)物價(jià)水平等指標(biāo)，就人民幣對(duì)中國進(jìn)口價(jià)格和居民消費(fèi)價(jià)格進(jìn)行了實(shí)證分析。最后，本文就研究結(jié)論和相應(yīng)的政策啟示進(jìn)行了說明。本文主要結(jié)論如下： 1.人民幣匯率的波動(dòng)對(duì)進(jìn)口價(jià)格水平有著直接的影響,且影響比較顯著。 2.人民幣升值對(duì)通脹有抑制作用，但效果不明顯。 3.存在匯率進(jìn)口價(jià)格工業(yè)品出廠價(jià)格居民消費(fèi)價(jià)格這條匯率傳遞的價(jià)格傳導(dǎo)鏈。
[Abstract]:Exchange rate is the core of the operation of international trade, and its change plays a guiding role in the direction of trade and the scale of trade, and the import price is the key link of China Unicom's exchange rate and domestic price. Moreover, exchange rate fluctuations mainly affect domestic prices through import prices; and changes in prices within economies not only affect the movement of exchange rates, but also deeply affect the demand for imported products by economies. In analyzing exchange rates, When it comes to the relationship between import prices and domestic prices, it generally starts from the angle of exchange rate conduction effect. This paper also tries to analyze the effect of exchange rate on import price and domestic price from the angle of exchange rate conduction effect. The exchange rate conduction effect can be divided into complete transmission and incomplete transmission. In a closed economy, the effect of exchange rate on prices can be ignored, that is, the transmission effect of exchange rate to price does not exist; in open economy, The fluctuation of exchange rate can cause the equivalent change of price, that is, the conduction effect of exchange rate on price is complete. At present, China's economy is in the transition stage, and the degree of economic openness is increasing. Under the background of increasing exchange rate fluctuation, exchange rate conduction effect is increasing. In view of this, this paper analyzes the transmission effect of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on import price and Chinese price, and controls inflation in China. It is important to formulate appropriate monetary policy. The first part of the article, mainly raises the question, has carried on the induction to the exchange rate transmission related literature, launched from the foreign research and the domestic research two aspects, and has carried on the elaboration to the research significance; the second part, in the definition exchange rate conduction concept, On the basis of summarizing the types of exchange rate transmission, the paper expounds the specific mechanism of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on price conduction. The third part describes the changes of RMB exchange rate, import price and price. Part 4th, based on the monthly data from July 2005 to December 2011, selected the indexes of money supply, trade openness, RMB exchange rate and domestic price level. This paper makes an empirical analysis on the import price and consumer price of China. Finally, this paper explains the research conclusions and the corresponding policy implications. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:. 1. The fluctuation of RMB exchange rate has a direct effect on the level of import price, and the influence is obvious. 2. The appreciation of RMB has a restraining effect on inflation, but the effect is not obvious. 3. There is the exchange rate import price, industrial product ex-factory price, resident consumer price, the price transmission chain of exchange rate.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：寧波大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F832.6;F752.61;F726

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