本文關(guān)鍵詞： 香港離岸人民幣 貨幣政策 貨幣供給量 利率 匯率　出處：《西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2013年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：離岸金融市場,是指所使用貨幣既不受市場所在國政府法令管制,又不受發(fā)行國政府法令管制的金融市場,離岸金融市場同離岸貨幣所在國的國內(nèi)金融體系以及該貨幣發(fā)行國境內(nèi)市場相分離。離岸市場業(yè)務(wù)活動(dòng)手續(xù)簡便,效率高,低稅或免稅,很少受市場法規(guī)的管制,成為滿足非居民本幣或外幣金融服務(wù)需求的主體。離岸貨幣則是離岸市場業(yè)務(wù)和離岸金融市場交易中所使用的貨幣。 歷史經(jīng)驗(yàn)表明,貨幣國際化進(jìn)程中離岸貨幣以及離岸金融市場的存在起了很大的推動(dòng)作用。一國貨幣在境外流通或成為國際貨幣之后,在國際市場交易以及國際貿(mào)易需求中自然而然就形成了該國際貨幣的離岸交易中心,如歐洲美元市場、歐洲日元市場等。但是,貨幣離岸交易中心的發(fā)展會(huì)增加發(fā)行國貨幣供給調(diào)控的難度,使中央銀行保持貨幣政策的獨(dú)立性和穩(wěn)定性受到威脅和挑戰(zhàn)。由于大量的本幣在國外交易和流通,他們會(huì)通過跨境的離岸銀行等機(jī)構(gòu)實(shí)現(xiàn)資本的流出入,增加發(fā)行國央行對(duì)存量貨幣進(jìn)行監(jiān)測和統(tǒng)計(jì)的難度,從而對(duì)發(fā)行國的貨幣供給產(chǎn)生影響,擾亂該國的在岸市場貨幣政策的調(diào)控預(yù)期,使央行損失貨幣政策的獨(dú)立性。此外,離岸金融機(jī)構(gòu)的司法管轄權(quán)、成本收益結(jié)構(gòu)以及監(jiān)管要求和在岸金融機(jī)構(gòu)均有所不同,離岸金融機(jī)構(gòu)沒有存款準(zhǔn)備金的約束,離岸市場的信貸擴(kuò)張可能會(huì)通過國際金融市場間的密切關(guān)聯(lián)而影響在岸市場上的信貸規(guī)模,進(jìn)而影響到—國的貨幣總量,這同樣會(huì)使央行損失貨幣政策的獨(dú)立性。 隨著香港離岸人民幣金融中心人民幣規(guī)模的增長以及離岸市場結(jié)構(gòu)的完善,離岸金融中心人民幣交易活動(dòng)的影響開始逐步擴(kuò)大。離岸人民幣交易及其跨境流通越來越引起我國貨幣當(dāng)局、學(xué)界及世界金融界的廣泛關(guān)注,因此,離岸人民幣的流通和離岸人民幣市場的建立對(duì)在岸人民幣金融市場和我國中央銀行貨幣政策調(diào)控的影響,就應(yīng)該既從定性角度也從定量角度進(jìn)行系統(tǒng)性的研究。 離岸貨幣的出現(xiàn)及離岸金融中心的建立是國際金融發(fā)展的重要組成部分。離岸人民幣以及香港離岸人民幣中心的快速發(fā)展,為國際離岸貨幣和離岸金融市場的發(fā)展開創(chuàng)了新形式,即政策推動(dòng)的境外本幣離岸金融市場。這與為滿足市場需求而自發(fā)形成的境外本幣離岸市場(如歐洲美元市場)、由政策推動(dòng)而建立的境內(nèi)本幣離岸市場(如美國紐約的International Banking Facility歐洲美元市場；日本東京的歐洲日元市場),以及成員國通過區(qū)域貨幣合作形成的離岸市場(如歐洲歐元市場)相比都有著較大的差異。第一,雖然中國的GDP總量在2010年實(shí)現(xiàn)了對(duì)日本的正式超越,成為世界第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體,但中國仍然是一個(gè)發(fā)展中國家。一個(gè)發(fā)展中國家的貨幣成為離岸貨幣,并在此基礎(chǔ)上建立離岸金融市場,就與歐洲美元市場等有著明顯區(qū)別。第二,離岸人民幣和離岸人民幣市場的建立是在中國資本賬戶仍未實(shí)現(xiàn)自由兌換,人民幣還不是可自由兌換貨幣的背景下出現(xiàn)的,因此必然存在著獨(dú)特的發(fā)展途徑和模式。人民幣跨境交易結(jié)算作為人民幣國際化戰(zhàn)略實(shí)現(xiàn)的第一步,將為發(fā)展中國家離岸貨幣及貨幣國際化發(fā)展樹立典范,從理論上說,這是對(duì)離岸金融理論的發(fā)展。本文研究的重點(diǎn)是香港離岸人民幣和離岸人民幣市場對(duì)我國中央銀行貨幣政策的影響。為此本文研究了境外人民幣需求變動(dòng)的影響因素、境外人民幣跨境流通的路徑、離岸人民幣跨境流通對(duì)境內(nèi)貨幣供給量的影響、離岸人民幣市場通過利率途徑對(duì)境內(nèi)貨幣市場調(diào)控的影響、離岸人民幣市場通過匯率途徑對(duì)境內(nèi)外匯市場調(diào)控的影響等。從這些視角對(duì)離岸人民幣展開研究,有可能補(bǔ)充和發(fā)展離岸金融理論。 離岸人民幣的研究還有更為重要的實(shí)踐意義。首先從國內(nèi)角度看,離岸人民幣或?qū)⒔o我國境內(nèi)金融經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來比較深遠(yuǎn)的影響。離岸人民幣市場發(fā)展與影響,可以使我國分享到國際鑄幣稅收益,促進(jìn)對(duì)外經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易關(guān)系的發(fā)展,有效緩解當(dāng)前我國外匯儲(chǔ)備過大的壓力。同時(shí),還有利于加快我國境內(nèi)金融體制改革的步伐,為境內(nèi)中央銀行制定貨幣調(diào)控政策提供參考。如離岸人民幣回流渠道的完善和開拓,可以為境內(nèi)資本項(xiàng)目實(shí)現(xiàn)可自由兌換提供經(jīng)驗(yàn)和借鑒；香港離岸人民幣貨幣市場與外匯市場價(jià)格形成機(jī)制的市場化建設(shè),可以促進(jìn)和幫助境內(nèi)人民幣利率和匯率的市場化改革。其次從國際角度看,當(dāng)前國際貨幣體系的弊端已經(jīng)被各國清楚地認(rèn)識(shí)到,尤其是近些年來數(shù)次經(jīng)濟(jì)金融危機(jī)給許多國家留下了慘痛的教訓(xùn),改革國際貨幣體系的呼聲日益高漲,需要國際貨幣體系向多元化的格局發(fā)展。離岸人民幣及離岸人民幣市場對(duì)我國境內(nèi)金融經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響,離岸人民幣幣值穩(wěn)定的經(jīng)濟(jì)背景、穩(wěn)中有升的匯率以及良好的國際信譽(yù),開始成為世界關(guān)注的焦點(diǎn),加快和完善離岸人民幣中心的建設(shè),對(duì)于離岸人民幣回流渠道的完善與拓展、離岸人民幣投融資市場的建立、人民幣資本項(xiàng)目開放的逐步實(shí)現(xiàn)、人民幣外部循環(huán)體系的穩(wěn)定與形成,對(duì)于人民幣國際貨幣職能的實(shí)現(xiàn)具有重要的推動(dòng)作用。 本文共分八章,結(jié)構(gòu)安排如下： 第一章為導(dǎo)論。首先,對(duì)本文的選題背景和研究意義進(jìn)行闡述；其次,對(duì)相關(guān)研究的文獻(xiàn)綜述進(jìn)行梳理,對(duì)已有的國內(nèi)外研究文獻(xiàn)進(jìn)行總結(jié)述評(píng),以明確本文研究的方向；再次,闡述了本文的研究方法和結(jié)構(gòu)安排。最后,對(duì)本文研究的創(chuàng)新點(diǎn)與不足之處及未來研究方向加以說明。 第二章主要分析了國際主要離岸貨幣和離岸人民幣的出現(xiàn)及發(fā)展情況。首先,分析了歐洲美元(市場推動(dòng)型離岸貨幣)的出現(xiàn)和發(fā)展及其演進(jìn)和含義的深化；其次,分析了歐洲馬克到歐洲歐元(區(qū)域貨幣合作型離岸貨幣)的新型歐洲貨幣形式的出現(xiàn)和發(fā)展；再次,分析了歐洲日元(政策推動(dòng)型本土離岸貨幣)的出現(xiàn)與發(fā)展；最后對(duì)離岸人民幣的出現(xiàn)與發(fā)展歷程及產(chǎn)品創(chuàng)新、香港離岸人民幣市場的構(gòu)成進(jìn)行了較全面的分析。通過對(duì)這幾種世界主要離岸貨幣發(fā)展歷程的介紹與比較分析,得出了離岸貨幣及貨幣國際化的普遍特點(diǎn),即雄厚的經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力、成功的制度安排、自由的貿(mào)易網(wǎng)絡(luò)以及積極促進(jìn)區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)合作的發(fā)展,這對(duì)離岸人民幣和人民幣國際化戰(zhàn)略具有借鑒和啟示意義。 第三章對(duì)貨幣政策理論與實(shí)踐進(jìn)行了分析。首先,分析了貨幣政策理論,從數(shù)量政策和價(jià)格政策角度出發(fā),分別介紹凱恩斯的貨幣理論與政策、弗里德曼為代表的貨幣主義者的貨幣理論與政策；其次,分析了離岸人民幣分別與貨幣數(shù)量政策與價(jià)格政策執(zhí)行之間的矛盾；再次,介紹了貨幣狀況指數(shù)——MCI及其在我國的適應(yīng)性；最后,分析了利率平價(jià)理論及其在離岸貨幣市場研究中的應(yīng)用。 第四章對(duì)離岸人民幣需求的影響因素進(jìn)行了實(shí)證分析,得出結(jié)論：人民幣匯率預(yù)期、離岸人民幣替代率、境內(nèi)外利差與離岸人民幣需求之間存在穩(wěn)定的長期均衡關(guān)系；當(dāng)前人民幣的離岸需求更多的表現(xiàn)為投機(jī)性需求。 第五章分析了離岸人民幣及其跨境流通對(duì)境內(nèi)貨幣供給量的影響。首先,從香港離岸人民幣的貨幣市場、證券市場、外匯市場、外匯衍生品市場和保險(xiǎn)市場等方面梳理人民幣跨境流通路徑；其次,分析了人民幣跨境流通對(duì)境內(nèi)貨幣供給量及貨幣政策的影響機(jī)理；最后,對(duì)人民幣跨境流通對(duì)境內(nèi)貨幣供給量的影響進(jìn)行了實(shí)證分析。 第六章對(duì)離岸與在岸人民幣同業(yè)拆借利率間的關(guān)聯(lián)關(guān)系進(jìn)行了實(shí)證分析。 第七章對(duì)離岸與在岸人民幣匯率關(guān)聯(lián)關(guān)系進(jìn)行了實(shí)證分析。 第八章借鑒國際經(jīng)驗(yàn)提出香港離岸人民幣市場發(fā)展的對(duì)策建議。依據(jù)本文研究理論基礎(chǔ)及研究結(jié)論,提出應(yīng)對(duì)離岸人民幣跨境流通和離岸人民幣市場快速發(fā)展對(duì)境內(nèi)貨幣政策的影響情況及影響程度的對(duì)策建議,即盡快建立兩岸人民幣流通的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)聯(lián)動(dòng)預(yù)警機(jī)制,實(shí)現(xiàn)貨幣政策的數(shù)量與價(jià)格多種政策目標(biāo)的統(tǒng)—協(xié)調(diào),盡快實(shí)現(xiàn)人民幣利率、匯率的市場化改革,逐步健康穩(wěn)妥的實(shí)現(xiàn)資本項(xiàng)目的自由兌換。 論文可能的創(chuàng)新點(diǎn)： 第一,從理論的角度,本文以貨幣政策理論、利率平價(jià)理論和貨幣替代理論為基礎(chǔ),并引入貨幣狀況指數(shù)(MCI),綜合考察了離岸貨幣及離岸貨幣市場對(duì)貨幣主權(quán)國的貨幣政策的關(guān)系,動(dòng)態(tài)地分析了離岸貨幣與境內(nèi)貨幣價(jià)格政策與貨幣數(shù)量政策的矛盾。 第二,從政策的角度,本文在區(qū)分歐洲美元、歐洲馬克(歐洲歐元)和歐洲日元三種不同類型離岸貨幣的基礎(chǔ)上,分析了離岸貨幣與貨幣國際化的關(guān)系,得出不同經(jīng)濟(jì)體和經(jīng)濟(jì)制度應(yīng)該有不同的離岸貨幣與貨幣國際化的發(fā)展模式的結(jié)論,從而認(rèn)為我國屬于發(fā)展中國家,我國資本項(xiàng)目也還未實(shí)現(xiàn)完全可兌換,因此我國離岸人民幣及人民幣國際化應(yīng)該有自己的特點(diǎn),即借助特定地區(qū)(香港、新加坡、倫敦、臺(tái)灣和澳大利亞)建立離岸人民幣市場,實(shí)現(xiàn)逐步的人民幣國際化之路。 第三,從實(shí)證研究的角度,本文系統(tǒng)地對(duì)離岸人民幣需求的影響因素進(jìn)行了分析,得出離岸人民幣需求更多的表現(xiàn)為投機(jī)性需求的結(jié)論；對(duì)離岸與在岸人民幣貨幣市場同業(yè)拆借利率之間的關(guān)系進(jìn)行了深入系統(tǒng)的分析,得出離岸與在岸同業(yè)拆息定價(jià)更多的表現(xiàn)為雙向波動(dòng)溢出效應(yīng)的結(jié)論；將CNY、CNH、DF、NDF四個(gè)外匯市場的人民幣匯率置于同—研究模型內(nèi),對(duì)離岸與在岸人民幣匯率進(jìn)行了深入系統(tǒng)的分析,得出四個(gè)外匯市場價(jià)格存在明顯的聯(lián)通機(jī)制、香港離岸人民幣外匯市場已經(jīng)表現(xiàn)出對(duì)境內(nèi)即期外匯市場的價(jià)格引導(dǎo)關(guān)系的結(jié)論。 論文的不足之處： 由于作者對(duì)離岸人民幣跨境結(jié)算交易實(shí)踐認(rèn)識(shí)有限,在對(duì)離岸人民幣跨境流通對(duì)境內(nèi)貨幣供給量的影響進(jìn)行分析時(shí),結(jié)論可能會(huì)比較片面。由于香港離岸人民幣市場只公布了各銀行同業(yè)拆息報(bào)價(jià)利率,本文使用各銀行的報(bào)價(jià)利率平均值代表銀行間同業(yè)拆息定價(jià)水平進(jìn)行研究,得出的結(jié)論可能有失偏頗。同時(shí),利率數(shù)據(jù)未考慮債券利率,研究所得結(jié)論可能不夠全面。
[Abstract]:Offshore financial markets refer to financial markets that are not regulated by the government decree of the market host country or regulated by the government decree of the issuing country . The offshore financial markets are separated from the domestic financial system of the country where the offshore currency is located and the market in the currency issuing country . The offshore market operations are simple and convenient , high in efficiency , low taxes or duty - free , and are rarely regulated by market regulations and become the subject of the demand for non - resident functional currency or foreign currency financial services . The offshore currency is the currency used in offshore market operations and offshore financial market transactions . Historical experience shows that the existence of offshore currencies and offshore financial markets plays a great role in the internationalization process of money . The development of the offshore trading center of the country can increase the difficulty of the monetary supply and control of the issuing country , such as the European dollar market , the European yen market , etc . However , the development of the money offshore trading center will increase the difficulty of the currency supply and control of the issuing country , which can increase the monetary policy independence and stability of the central bank . With the increase of RMB scale of offshore RMB financial center in Hong Kong and the improvement of offshore market structure , the influence of offshore renminbi trading and its cross - border circulation has attracted extensive attention from the monetary authorities , academic circles and the world financial circles . Therefore , the establishment of offshore renminbi and the establishment of offshore renminbi market have exerted a systematic study on the financial market of offshore renminbi and the regulation of monetary policy of central bank in China . The emergence of offshore currencies and the establishment of offshore financial centres are an important component of international financial development . The rapid development of offshore renminbi and offshore renminbi centres in Hong Kong has created a new form for the development of international offshore currencies and offshore financial markets . At the same time , it is beneficial to accelerate the reform of China ' s domestic financial system , to promote the development of foreign economic and trade relations , to promote the development of foreign economic and trade relations and to provide reference for the development of China ' s domestic financial system . This article is divided into eight chapters , the structure arrangement is as follows : The first chapter is the introduction . Firstly , the background and significance of this thesis are discussed . Secondly , the literature review of the related research is reviewed , and the research methods and structure arrangements are described in this paper . Finally , the innovation points and shortcomings and future research directions are described . The second chapter mainly analyzes the emergence and development of the major offshore currencies and offshore RMB . First , the emergence and development of the new European monetary form of the European dollar ( the offshore currency of market push type ) is analyzed . Secondly , the paper analyzes the emergence and development of the new European monetary form in the Euro ( regional monetary cooperation type offshore currency ) . Finally , the paper analyzes the development course of the offshore renminbi and the product innovation . Finally , the paper gives the general characteristics of the internationalization of offshore currency and currency , namely the strong economic strength , the successful system arrangement , the free trade network and the development of the regional economic cooperation . In the third chapter , the theory and practice of monetary policy are analyzed . Firstly , the monetary policy theory is analyzed , and the monetary theory and policy of Keynesian theory and policy are introduced . Secondly , the contradiction between the monetary policy and the price policy is analyzed . Secondly , the currency status index _ MCI and its adaptability in China are introduced . Finally , the theory of interest rate parity and its application in the research of offshore money market are analyzed . The fourth chapter makes an empirical analysis on the factors affecting the demand of offshore RMB . The conclusion is that the RMB exchange rate is expected , the substitution rate of offshore RMB , the difference between domestic and external interest and the demand of offshore RMB are stable and long - term equilibrium ; the offshore demand of RMB is more than the speculative demand . The fifth chapter analyzes the influence of the offshore RMB and its cross - border circulation on the supply of money in China . First , the paper analyzes the cross - border circulation path of RMB from the currency market , the securities market , the foreign exchange market , the foreign exchange derivative market and the insurance market of the offshore renminbi in Hong Kong ; secondly , it analyzes the influence mechanism of RMB cross - border circulation on the supply quantity of domestic money and monetary policy ; and finally , the influence of RMB cross - border circulation on the supply quantity of domestic money is analyzed . The sixth chapter makes an empirical analysis of the relationship between offshore and onshore renminbi interbank lending rates . The seventh chapter makes an empirical analysis of the relationship between offshore and onshore RMB exchange rates . Chapter 8 is based on the international experience to put forward the countermeasures and suggestions for the development of the offshore RMB market in Hong Kong . According to the theoretical foundation and the research conclusion , this paper puts forward the countermeasures to deal with the influence of offshore RMB cross - border circulation and the rapid development of offshore RMB market on the domestic monetary policy . Possible innovation points : First , from the angle of theory , this paper is based on monetary policy theory , interest rate parity theory and currency substitution theory , and introduces the monetary status index ( MCI ) , comprehensively investigates the relationship between the offshore currency and the monetary policy of the monetary sovereign countries , and dynamically analyzes the contradiction between the foreign currency and the domestic monetary policy and the monetary policy . Secondly , from the perspective of policy , this paper analyzes the relationship between offshore currencies and currency internationalization based on the distinction of three different types of offshore currencies in the United States dollar , Euromark ( Euro ) and European yen , and concludes that different economies and economic systems should have different development models of offshore currencies and currency internationalization . Therefore , China ' s offshore RMB and RMB internationalization should have its own characteristics , that is , to establish the offshore renminbi market by means of specific areas ( Hong Kong , Singapore , London , Taiwan and Australia ) to realize the gradual internationalization of RMB . Third , from the perspective of the empirical research , this paper systematically analyzes the factors affecting the demand of offshore RMB , and draws the conclusion that the offshore renminbi demand is more represented as speculative demand . The shortcomings of the thesis are as follows : Due to the limited understanding of offshore renminbi cross - border settlement transactions , the conclusion may be more than one - sided when analyzing the impact of offshore renminbi cross - border circulation on the supply of domestic money .

【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F832.6;F822.0

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